Key takeaways from unprecedented Hamas blitzkrieg stunning Israel

Hamas resistance group fired thousands of rockets and sent dozens of fighters into illegal Israeli settlements and towns near the Gaza fence in an unprecedented surprise early morning attack during a major Jewish holiday on Saturday, killing dozens, capturing some 100 Israelis, and stunning Tel Aviv.

Here are some key takeaways from the multi-pronged attack that has suddenly plunged Israel and Palestine's Gaza into battle.

Did Israel expect the attack?

The shock that Israelis felt on Saturday morning — on Simchat Torah, one of the most joyous days of the Jewish calendar — recalled the surprise of the 1973 Mideast war, in which Arab countries made some major gains.

Practically 50 years earlier to the day, a full-scale Egyptian-Syrian attack on a Jewish holiday, which correlated that year with the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, quickly turned into a disaster for an unprepared Israeli military.

Then, as now, Israelis had assumed that their intelligence services would be able to alert the army to any major attack or invasion well in advance.

That colossal failure still haunts the legacy of then-prime minister Golda Meir and helped bring down the lengthy rule of the once-dominant Labour Party.

Now, the question of how the resistance groups were able to stage such a huge and coordinated attack — which has already killed more Israelis than any single assault since the second Palestinian uprising two decades ago — without triggering Israeli intelligence concerns has already presented a major challenge to Netanyahu's ultranationalist government.

The government's supporters had expected Netanyahu and hardline ministers with a history of anti-Arab rhetoric, like National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, to take a particularly belligerent stance against the Palestinians and respond more forcefully to threats from the fighters in besieged Gaza.

As political analysts lambast Netanyahu over the failure, and the casualty count climbs, Netanyahu risks losing control of both his government and the country.

How was Hamas able to carry out its strike?

Hamas claimed its fighters took several Israelis captive in the enclave. It said senior Israeli military officers were among the captives.

The videos could not immediately be verified but matched the geographic features of the area.

In a dramatic escalation unseen in decades, Hamas also sent paragliders flying into Israel, the Israeli military said.

The brazen attack recalled a famous assault in the late 1980s when the Palestinian resistance crossed from Lebanon into northern Israel on hang-gliders and killed six Israeli soldiers.

The Israeli army belatedly confirmed that soldiers and civilians were taken hostage in besieged Gaza, but refused to provide further details.

What led to the fight?

Hamas officials cited long-simmering sources of aggression from Israel against Palestinians, including the continuous storming of Al Aqsa Mosque compound, which is sacred to Muslims.

Competing claims over the site, known to Jews as the Temple Mount, have spilt into violence before, including a bloody 11-day Israeli aggression on Gaza in 2021.

In recent years, Israeli religious extremists — such as Ben-Gvir, the national security minister — have increased their visits to the compound.

Last week, during the Jewish harvest festival of Sukkot, hundreds of ultra-Orthodox Jews and Israeli extremists stormed the site, prompting condemnation from Hamas and accusations that Jews were praying there in violation of the status quo agreement.

Hamas statements have also cited the expansion of illegal Jewish settlements on Palestinian territories and Ben-Gvir's efforts to toughen restrictions on Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails.

In negotiations with Qatar, Egypt and the United Nations, Hamas has pushed for Israeli concessions that could loosen the 17-year blockade on the enclave and help halt a worsening financial crisis.

Some political analysts have linked the current fighting to current US-brokered talks on the normalisation of ties between Israel and Saudi Arabia.

So far, reports of possible concessions to Palestinians in the negotiations have involved Palestinians in the occupied West Bank, not besieged Gaza.

"We have always said that normalisation will not achieve security, stability, or calm," Bassem Naim, a senior Hamas official, told the Associated Press.

Fighting happens when Israeli society is divided

The fighting comes at a difficult time for Israel, which is facing the biggest protests in its history over Netanyahu's proposal to weaken the Supreme Court while he is on trial for corruption.

The protest movement, which accuses Netanyahu of making a power grab, has bitterly divided Israeli society and unleashed turmoil within the Israeli military.

Hundreds of reservists have threatened to stop volunteering to report for duty in protest at the judicial overhaul.

Reservists are the backbone of the country's army, and protests within the army ranks have raised concerns about the military's cohesion, operational readiness and power of deterrence as it confronts threats on multiple fronts.

The protests have rocked the country on a weekly basis since the beginning of the year.

What kind of resolution is expected?

Israel has so far launched four large-scale invasions against besieged Gaza and exchanged fire numerous times against the resistance groups there.

Ceasefires have stopped major fighting in past rounds of conflict but have always proven shaky.

Each agreement in the past has offered a period of calm, but the deeper, underlying issues of the Israeli aggression and occupation of Palestinian lands are rarely addressed and set the stage for the next round of air strikes and rockets.

With its increased leverage in this round, Hamas is likely to push harder for concessions on key issues, such as easing the blockade and winning the release of prisoners held by Israel.