Netanyahu risks Israel's future for his political survival

The ceasefire proposal announced by US President Joe Biden has placed Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at a crossroads, with either path likely to shape the legacy of Israel's deeply divisive leader.

The proposal offers the possibility of ending Israel's eight-month war in Gaza, returning scores of Israeli hostages, quieting the northern border with Lebanon, and potentially advancing a historic agreement to normalise ties with Saudi Arabia.

But it may also likely splinter Netanyahu's governing coalition, potentially sending him into the opposition and making him vulnerable to a conviction in his corruption trial.

Netanyahu's rejection of the deal, on the other hand, could deepen Israel's international isolation, worsen ties with Biden administration eager to wind down the war, and expose him to accusations of having abandoned the hostages to save his own skin.

It's a problem, and that may explain the strange choreography of Biden's Friday night address: An American president, announcing what he says is an Israeli proposal.

Netanyahu acknowledged the proposal, which has been shared with Hamas resistance group through mediators, but then contradicted Biden's remarks. He said Israel remains committed to dismantling Hamas' capabilities and that any talk of a permanent ceasefire before then was a "non-starter."

On Monday, he said the destruction of Hamas is "part of the proposal" and was quoted as telling a closed parliamentary hearing that Israel reserves the right to return to war if its objectives are not met.

But it has never been clear whether the destruction of Hamas is even possible.

Shockingly, while Netanyahu's office stressed the war would continue until all of Israel's "goal s are achieved" [defeat of Hamas], Biden told mediator Qatar that he saw Hamas as "the only obstacle to a complete ceasefire" in Gaza, and urged him to press the group to accept it.

Biden said Israel had degraded Hamas to the point where it could no longer carry out an October 7-style raid, and that by continuing the war, Israel risked getting bogged down in Gaza.

But Netanyahu may have other plans.

'Netanyahu’s endgame is to survive'

Netanyahu's critics fear he will reject any ceasefire to appease his ultranationalist ruling partners, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir.

The extremist ministers want to continue the war, fully reoccupy Gaza and rebuild illegal Jewish settlements there.

They have already vowed to leave the government if the proposal announced by Biden comes to pass. Netanyahu's political opponents have offered a safety net if he reaches a deal to release hostages but they are unlikely to help him stay in office long-term.

"Everything that Ben-Gvir and Smotrich demand or threaten to do, you see Netanyahu is very attentive to that," said Tal Schneider, an Israeli political commentator. "Netanyahu's endgame is to survive."

Netanyahu's current regime, formed in late 2022 after five consecutive elections, is the most extremist in Israel's history. Months before the war, it pushed policies that entrenched Israel's occupation of the West Bank, deepened the ultra-Orthodox Jewish community's reliance on state subsidies and set in motion an overhaul of the judicial system that tore the country apart.

The coalition initially had a slim majority of 64 seats in Israel's 120-seat parliament —enough to govern but with a fragility that would keep Netanyahu's fate tied to the whims of any of the smaller parties that form the government.

Difficult political environment

Shortly after Israel launched the war on Gaza, Benny Gantz, a former military chief and a top political rival of Netanyahu, joined the government in a show of unity. Netanyahu, Gantz and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant formed a three-man War Cabinet to direct the assault in Gaza.

Mazal Mualem, a Netanyahu biographer, said that effort largely succeeded in sidelining the ultranationalists and allowing Netanyahu to rule in a more pragmatic mold that has defined his 17 years in office going back to the 1990s.

She pointed to Israel’s limited response to an aerial attack by Iran in April, which Ben-Gvir criticised as "weak," and to a ceasefire and hostage release deal reached with Hamas in November that Smotrich had initially opposed but later voted for.

"Over the years, Bibi has taught himself to do what he wants to do in difficult political environments," she said, referring to Netanyahu by his popular nickname.

But Gantz has threatened to quit the government unless Netanyahu lays out a post-war plan by June 8, which would leave him far more reliant on Smotrich and Ben-Gvir.

Netanyahu's decision to press ahead with Israel's massive military invasion in Gaza as scores of captives are still in Hamas custody has opened him up to fierce criticism from many Israelis, including families of the captives.

Thousands have joined weekly mass protests.

"The government of Israel has given up on the hostages," Yehi Yehud, who has an adult child as a captive in Gaza, told Israeli Army Radio.

"Bibi, you don't have the permission or the moral validity to sacrifice them on the altar of your political survival."

Opportunities and risks

Netanyahu's hard-line stance has also weighed heavily on Israel's relations with its closest ally, the United States, which has aided the country both militarily and diplomatically, but expressed exasperation at the lack of any realistic Israeli postwar plans.

Internationally, it has exposed Israel to charges of genocide and a potential international arrest warrant against Netanyahu himself.

In his address on Friday, Biden appeared to be offering Netanyahu a way out: Claim victory, bring the captives home, and then work with the US and Arab nations to build a new regional security architecture.

But the fear of losing power could prevail.

Netanyahu has spent years nurturing an image that only he can lead Israel through its myriad diplomatic and security challenges. That legacy suffered a major blow on October 7, with many Israelis directly blaming him for the most devastating security failure in the country's history.

Public opinion polls indicate that Netanyahu is trailing behind Gantz and would struggle to form a government if elections were held today.

For all their threats, his far-right allies are in a similar predicament. They would likely join him in the opposition if early elections are held, losing the power he has granted them over the Israeli police and settlement expansion in the occupied West Bank.

If Netanyahu can hold his coalition together until the next scheduled elections in 2026, he might be able to rehabilitate his image. His poll numbers have already started to climb from the depths they hit after October 7 as he has presented himself as withstanding international pressure to end the war.

Aviv Bushinsky, a former Netanyahu adviser, said Netanyahu's wartime decision-making has less to do with immediate political survival and more with securing a legacy that would not be entirely overshadowed by October 7.

"From a historical perspective, Netanyahu's only option is to go all the way," he said. Ben-Gvir and Smotrich "are helping him reach that destination."