Netanyahu will likely shun US pressure over post-war Gaza plan — CIA

A recent CIA assessment circulated among US officials has concluded that Israel's hawkish Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is poised to defy US pressure in articulating a post-war strategy for Gaza where Israel has. killed at least 36,731 Palestinians — 71% of them being women, children and infants –– and wounded more than 83,000 since October last year.

The assessment, first reported by CNN, suggests that Netanyahu maintains confidence in retaining support from his security apparatus and averting defections from the extremist faction of his coalition by deliberately keeping discussions regarding Gaza's future vague.

This revelation offers a rare insight into Netanyahu's mindset amid the relentless turmoil of the Gaza war, previously undisclosed. This insight arrives as the Joe Biden's administration increasingly perceives Israel less as an ally and more as an enigmatic foreign entity necessitating scrutiny.

The assessment underscores Netanyahu's reluctance to engage substantially on post-war matters until he perceives total victory, which his war cabinet ministers describe as full occupation and mass displacement of Palestinians from Gaza and West Bank — possibly spanning months.

Netanyahu seems to continue with the war on Gaza until certain key security milestones are achieved which include concluding major military operations and neutralising Hamas military commander Mohammed Deif, whom Tel Aviv believes was involved in orchestrating the October 7, 2023, raid in Israel that caught powerful Israeli military and intelligence agencies off guard.

Deep divisions within Netanyahu cabinet

This development aligns with recent media reports after President Biden announced a three-pronged peace deal proposal. Senior Biden administration officials, including CIA Director Bill Burns, have been actively involved in negotiations between Israel and Hamas during this particularly fraught period. While publicly characterising the deal as an Israeli proposal awaiting Hamas approval, US officials privately acknowledge the challenges in securing Netanyahu's agreement. Netanyahu they say is still on on board.

The once-amicable relationship between Biden and Netanyahu has deteriorated as civilian casualties in Gaza mount due to Israel's brutal bombing campaign. Biden and other American officials have become increasingly critical of Netanyahu. Yet Biden administration continues to arm its ally and shield it at the UN. In a recent TIME magazine interview, Biden hinted that Netanyahu might be prolonging the conflict for his own political advantage.

In March, the US intelligence community publicly assessed Netanyahu's leadership viability as precarious, predicting significant protests and calls for his resignation. Domestically, Netanyahu faces substantial pressure over military and intelligence lapses leading to Hamas' October raid on Israeli military targets and settlements that were once Arab villages and farms.

Additionally, he contends with deep divisions within his government and intense pressure from far-right coalition members to prolong the conflict.

A post-war plan for Gaza?

The CIA assessment exposes a lack of consensus within Israel on a post-war Gaza strategy, showcasing divergent perspectives among Israeli leaders. Netanyahu appears to favour a coalition of moderate Arab states overseeing Gaza, with potential participation from other leaders. Conversely, other Israeli leaders hold varying views on governance, security, and reconstruction in Gaza.

The assessment reveals major divisions within Israel's extremist coalition regime regarding critical post-war issues. This discord among Netanyahu's political adversaries supports the CIA's broader conclusion that Netanyahu may persist in resisting pressure to delineate a post-war plan for Gaza.

"My major disagreement with Netanyahu is, what happens after Gaza's over?" Biden expressed to TIME. "What does it go back to? Do Israeli forces go back in?"

On Thursday, the United States circulated the revised draft of a UN Security Council resolution aimed at bringing about a ceasefire in Gaza, but Israel privately objected to its close ally's latest attempt to stop the genocidal war.

The draft, obtained by the Associated Press, said the Security Council "welcomes the new ceasefire proposal announced on May 31, which is acceptable to Israel ... (and) calls upon Hamas to also accept it."

But an Israeli official told the AP news agency that the language overlooks Israel's stated aim of destroying Hamas. The official spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the discussion.

Israel also objects to text that "rejects any attempt at demographic or territorial change in the Gaza Strip."

That includes "actions that reduce the territory of Gaza, such as through the permanent establishment officially or unofficially of so-called buffer zones," which Israel has said it plans.