Türkiye to cement key role in energy security after Assad's fall

The collapse of Syria’s 61-year Baath regime marks a new phase for the region, with renewed attention on how Türkiye will shape its energy security policies moving forward.

During Bashar al Assad's rule, Syria’s key oil and gas fields were outside the control of the central government. Damascus, therefore, relied on Iran for fuel supplies. That dynamic will now change with the Assad regime's collapse.

"Iran won’t be able to supply oil and its derivatives to Syria after the fall of the Assad regime," according to Kate Dourian, a non-resident fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington.

Last year, Iran supplied Syria with around 80,000 barrels per day (bpd) of oil.

"Türkiye could step in and provide fuel to Syria. With Ankara's influence with the Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS), which led the anti-regime forces in their march to Damascus, it will likely be involved in the reconstruction effort and have political sway with the new leadership," Dourian said.

Diminishing oil output

Referring to international data, Dourian noted that before the 2011 uprising, Syria produced around 383,000 barrels of oil and 8.9 million cubic meters of natural gas daily.

However, years of internal turmoil reduced Syria's oil output from 171,000 bpd in 2012 to just 93,000 bpd by 2022, leaving the country heavily dependent on Iran for its energy needs.

Dourian added that hydrocarbons had accounted for about a quarter of Syria’s revenues before the war but suffered greatly when Daesh, and later the PKK/PYD—operating as the "Syrian Democratic Forces" (SDF)—took control of major oil fields.

She also noted that Assad had granted Russia exclusive rights to revive Syria’s oil and gas sectors, but the agreement has stalled due to US sanctions.

"There is an opportunity for Turkish energy companies to step in and revive oil and gas production, which would generate revenues to help with the reconstruction effort," she said.

"However, this will require an inclusive political settlement and a stable government that can negotiate with foreign partners, which will take time."

Syria’s place in energy geopolitics

Türkiye-based Middle East researcher Haydar Oruc explained that Syria’s significance in energy geopolitics stems more from its location along key east-west and north-south energy corridors than from its resources.

Highlighting Syria’s central position, Oruc pointed to projects such as the Arab Natural Gas Pipeline, which aims to transport Egyptian natural gas to Türkiye via Jordan, Lebanon, and Syria, eventually reaching Europe.

He noted that Syria’s strategic position has remained underutilised due to the prolonged civil war, forcing neighbouring countries to seek alternative routes.

Opportunities for energy cooperation

With the new administration, Türkiye will continue offering the same support to Syrian people that it has over the past decade, Oruc said, anticipating reconstruction efforts to begin once state institutions are restored.

He added that Turkish support will include steps to develop and integrate Syria’s energy resources into the economy, opening up cooperation opportunities in exploring new resources, particularly in energy extraction in the Eastern Mediterranean.

Stressing the importance of removing Syria’s energy resources from the control of terrorist organisations, Oruc concluded, "Once this is accomplished, and if requested by the new Syrian administration, Türkiye stands ready to offer all possible support for Syria's reconstruction, including the enhancement of existing energy resources and the development of new ones."