UK is sending troops to Greek Cyprus. Why is this a bad move?

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced on September 24 the deployment of 700 troops to British military bases in Cyprus.

The official reason is to support the evacuation of British citizens from Lebanon amidst rising tensions between Israel and Hezbollah. However, analysts warn this could be a move beyond evacuations and could signal a broader strategic shift in the affairs of the Eastern Mediterranean.

During a press briefing en route to the 79th United Nations General Assembly in New York, Starmer reiterated the urgency of evacuating British nationals from Lebanon due to the escalating conflict.

British warships stationed in southern Cyprus, backed by jets and helicopters, are on standby.

The Cyprus's Akrotiri and Dhekelia military bases have long been critical to Western military operations. And a thorn for Türkiye.

"They are crucial for the UK's military and intelligence operations in the Middle East. Many of the UK's military activities concerning developments in Israel, Egypt, and other regional hotspots are coordinated through these bases,” says Dr Murat Aslan, a security expert who teaches at Hasan Kalyoncu University.

A risky venture

The UK's military deployment to Greek Cyprus is part of a strategy to safeguard Britain's military and geopolitical interests in the region, analysts say.

The timing coincides with an increased military buildup in the Eastern Mediterranean, where American and British naval forces have expanded their presence since early October.

"The deployment of British ships is part of a larger trend. Since October 8, military vessels from various nations, including the US, have been positioned in the Mediterranean,” says Dr Tuba Yildiz, an assistant professor at Istanbul University.

Yildiz says this could have potential security implications for the broader Mediterranean region, cautioning that the growing military presence could shift the balance of power.

Aslan underscores Cyprus island’s unique strategic location, with two sovereign British military bases, which serve as a vital hub for intelligence and the army activities linked to the Middle East, particularly Israel.

These bases have advanced surveillance infrastructure, allowing the UK to monitor regional developments closely, he says.

The UK, often in coordination with the US, has historically used these bases during periods of heightened tension, such as during the ongoing Gaza war.

Shifting geopolitical role

Beyond the UK's involvement, southern Cyprus, which is controlled by the Greek Cypriot administration, has increasingly aligned itself with American and Israeli interests.

Just weeks back, the US announced signing a defence pact with the Greek Cypriot administration, cautioning Ankara.

The Cyprus island is divided between the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus and the Greek Cypriot administration in the south. Multiple attempts to resolve their differences have hit deadlock

Despite its historical support for the Palestinian cause, Greek Cypriots have opened their ports and airfields to American forces, facilitating military raids in the region.

This alignment creates internal contradictions for Greek Cypriots. While it has traditionally sympathised with the Palestinian cause, Israeli economic influence has grown, particularly in the financial and business sectors.

This juxtaposition of political sympathies and current geopolitical realities presents a complex challenge for the Greek Cypriot administration.

Aslan warns of potential legal consequences for the Greek Cypriot administration.

It is facilitating military operations—particularly those that may support Israeli actions in humanitarian crises in Palestine or Lebanon— and could attract scrutiny from the International Criminal Court (ICC) for potential war crimes, says Aslan.

"Militarisation and escalating tensions could pull Southern Cyprus directly into regional conflicts," potentially creating a volatile situation with far-reaching consequences.

Whether this move by the UK is primarily a military strategy or a diplomatic signal remains to be seen. Still, it undoubtedly raises the stakes for the island and the broader region.

Hezbollah's warning

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has warned that the Greek Cypriots could become a target if its bases are used by Israel to attack Lebanon.

Greek-administered Cyprus is inadvertently pulling itself into a long-term conflict, even though its current focus is on securing alliance with Israel.

"Cypriots are rowing in the air rather than the water," Aslan says, emphasising that things can easily get out of control for the Greek Cypriot administration.