UNGA 2024: Gaza war set to take centre stage in general debate

Washington DC — Nearly 200 world leaders and top diplomats are gathering next week in New York to take the stage at the 79th United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) in the shadow of Israel's war on besieged Gaza — with thousands of pager blasts in Lebanon now posing a threat of regional spillover — Russia-Ukraine war and approaching global climate deadlines.

The six days of speeches at the annual high-level General Debate will start on September 24 under the theme, "Leaving no one behind: acting together for the advancement of peace, sustainable development and human dignity for present and future generations".

Here's what to look for at the high-level week:

Who will speak first?

Cameroon's Philemon Yang, who is the President of the UNGA, first calls the meeting to order. It will follow the speech of Secretary-General Antonio Guterres. Yang will then open the general debate and make a speech.

As a norm since 10th session of the General Assembly, in 1955, Brazil will speak first regardless of the level of representation. US as the host country is the second member state to speak, regardless of the level of representation.

The order of speakers then is based on the level of representation, geographical balance, how the request to speak was recorded, and other considerations.

Only the Holy See, the State of Palestine — which was granted a seat among other member states — and the European Union are invited to participate and speak at the general debate.

During the debate, member states deliver speeches and are also given a right of reply.

Right to reply are often fiery exchanges and both Pakistan and India — who are locked in a bitter dispute over Kashmir since 1947 — are known for aggressively using the right to reply to defend their policies and exchange accusations.

Which issue will dominate the debate?

Last year, Russia's war in Ukraine dominated the general debate, but this year Israel's war on besieged Gaza and the mounting Palestinian death toll are going to spark intense discussions.

Israel has killed more than 41,000 Palestinians and wounded nearly 100,000 in Gaza since October 7 last year. Palestinian officials say some 10,000 Palestinians are feared buried under the rubble of their bombed homes and another 10,000 have been jailed by Israel.

But experts and some studies say that the actual Palestinian death toll could be around 200,000.

The Lancet medical journal estimates that indirect deaths, caused by factors like disease, might mean the death toll is several times higher than official estimates and possibly above 186,000.

"This high number is despite various ceasefire agreements over the past six months. If deaths continue at this rate – about 23,000 a month – there would be an additional 149,500 deaths by the end of the year, some six and half months from the initial mid-June estimate," Devi Sridhar, chair of global public health at the University of Edinburgh, wrote in an article in The Guardian.

"Using the method, the total deaths since the conflict began would be estimated at about 335,500 in total."

Israel is accused of carrying out genocide of Palestinians in Gaza at the International Court of Justice while the prosecutors at the International Criminal Court are seeking arrest warrants for top Israeli leadership.

"I think there will be a lot of talk about Gaza but real progress on ending the Israel-Hamas war is unlikely," Richard Gowan, who oversees International Crisis Group's advocacy work at the United Nations, told TRT World.

"Most leaders will call for a ceasefire in their speeches, and also emphasise the importance of a two-state solution. But unless Israel and Hamas move towards a ceasefire, there is not very much more the UN can do to help end the war."

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu — who has accused the UN and its chief Guterres of being pro-Hamas — and Palestine's President Mahmoud Abbas are both expected to speak at the UNGA on September 26.

Russia-Ukraine war

Despite Israel's war on Gaza dominating the agenda, many leaders are expected to raise the Russia-Ukraine war — nearing its 950-day milestone — in their speeches.

"I suspect that there will be less attention to Ukraine than in 2022 and 2023, mainly because Gaza is now the primary focus at the UN. I think Ukrainian diplomats are worried about this loss of focus on their struggle," Gowan, the UN affairs specialist, told TRT World.

"If (President) Zelenskyy attends, he can still use the UN meeting as a chance to lobby leaders from the Global South."

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is scheduled to speak at the General Assembly on September 25. He is expected to reprimand Russia, seek support from both UNGA and Western allies in his address, and also attend the crucial side meeting with leaders of the US and UK and others to discuss the possibility of using long-range missiles deep into Russia.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has not physically traveled to New York for the UNGA event since 2015. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov is expected to speak at the UNGA on September 28.

Climate crisis

The UNGA 2024 comes just 60 days ahead of the next UN climate summit, COP29, in Azerbaijan.

With scientists finding summer of this year the hottest to date and sea levels rising at an alarming pace, the UNGA will see several leaders, small countries, and island nations seek coordinated solutions as well as climate justice.

Reforming United Nations Security Council

Many eyes will be on Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who will likely raise the plight of Palestinians before the world leaders and seek an end to Israel's carnage in besieged Gaza and the occupied West Bank.

Erdogan, who has been pushing for United Nations Security Council's (UNSC) reform for a very long time, will continue to emphasise that "the world is bigger than five."

The reforms have seen some support from the US, which last week called for adding two permanent seats for African nations to the UNSC, and an elected seat for a small-island developing nation. The US, however, said it opposes handing veto powers to new members.

"President Erdogan has championed Security Council expansion for many years. It is unknown so far which nations the African Union would back for the UNSC," according to Frank Ucciardo, TRT World’s UN Correspondent said.

"But a UNSC expansion would have little impact as long as five members have a veto."

Gowan of the International Crisis Group told TRT World that the US announcement was an effort to strengthen US President Biden's legacy at the UN.

"We won't see Council reform during his term in office, but he might just go down in history as the president who made it possible."

Gowan added: "It may also be an effort to deflect attention from the way that the US marginalised the Council over Gaza by using its veto in late 2023 and early 2024. That caused a lot of bad feeling among other UN members. The US wants to look like a reformer not a spoiler at the UN."

He said the UNSC reform negotiations still have a long way to go.

"If Trump wins in November, the US is unlikely to invest any more in reform. But I think the US is still smart to show it is on the side of reform, rather than defending a still unacceptable status quo at the UN." Gowan said.

Summit of the Future

The summit has been promoted by the UN chief Antonio Guterres as a "once-in-a-generation" chance to revive multilateral cooperation.

"It will consider how we cooperate both to achieve agreed goals and to tackle emerging threats and opportunities. It will result in an inter-governmentally agreed Pact for the Future," the UN has said.

Leaders and top diplomats of many countries are expected to attend the summit on September 22-23 and adopt the Pact, which will include a global digital compact and a declaration on future generations as annexes.