US, Saudi Arabia nearing agreement on security pact

The Biden administration and Saudi Arabia are finalising an agreement for US security guarantees and civilian nuclear assistance, according to seven people familiar with the matter.

US and Saudi negotiators have, for now, prioritised a bilateral security accord that would then be part of a wider package presented to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who would have to decide whether to make concessions to secure historic ties with Riyadh, five of the sources said.

“We’re very close to reaching an agreement” on the US-Saudi portion of the package, US State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said on Thursday, predicting that details could be ironed out “in very short order".

That part of the plan is likely to call for formal US guarantees to defend the kingdom as well as Saudi access to more advanced US weaponry in return for halting Chinese arms purchases and restricting Beijing’s investment in the country, according to foreign diplomats in the Gulf and sources in Washington.

The US-Saudi security accord is also expected to involve sharing emerging technologies with Riyadh, including artificial intelligence, according to people familiar with the matter.

The terms are expected to be finalised within weeks, a US official said on condition of anonymity.

The conditions that Netanyahu will face to join a broader deal are expected to include winding down the war in Gaza and agreeing on a pathway to Palestinian statehood, both of which Netanyahu has steadfastly resisted.

US officials say they hope Netanyahu will not want to pass up the historic opportunity to open relations with Saudi Arabia.

A broader pact giving the world's biggest oil exporter US military protection together with normalisation with Israel would unite two long-time foes and bind Riyadh to Washington at a time when China is making inroads in the region.

A normalisation deal would also bolster Israel's defences against arch-foe Iran and give US President Joe Biden a diplomatic victory ahead of the November 5 presidential election.

Overhanging these efforts is Netanyahu’s threat to launch a military offensive in the southern Gaza city of Rafah, where more than a million Palestinians are sheltering, despite US entreaties to refrain from an operation that could mean further heavy civilian casualties.

No normalisation without Gaza ceasefire

Saudi Arabia has called for an immediate truce leading to a permanent and sustainable ceasefire in Israel's war on Gaza and concrete steps toward the establishment of an independent Palestinian state.

“Putting a proposal on the table, that's one thing, a proposal that we could take to Israel (for normalisation),” US State Department spokesperson Miller said. But Saudi Arabia, he added, has made clear there will be no normalisation deal "while the conflict in Gaza is still raging.”

He spoke just a day after Secretary of State Antony Blinken returned from a Middle East trip in which he held separate talks with Netanyahu and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

What Biden’s aides originally envisioned, in three-way negotiations before the October 7, was for the Saudis to gain US security commitments in exchange for normalisation with Israel. Now the administration is negotiating with Riyadh on a separate track and seeking to finalise the offer of a "grand bargain," which would leave Netanyahu to decide whether to join or miss out.

Miller said the components of the broader package - the US-Saudi deal, potential normalisation with Israel and a pathway to Palestinian statehood - would all be linked together. "None go forward without the other," he said.

It remains unclear whether US defence guarantees for Saudi Arabia, which are expected to fall short of a full NATO-style pact, would be enshrined in a treaty requiring congressional ratification. But any agreement on nuclear cooperation is likely to require approval from Capitol Hill.

A proposed Saudi deal would face opposition in Congress, where many politicians have denounced Riyadh for intervention in Yemen, moves to prop up oil prices and its alleged role in the 2018 killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi.