What role can China and Russia play in the Israel-Palestine conflict?

The ongoing crisis in Israel-Palestine has potential to play out in several destabilising ways.

No wise analyst is confidently predicting how relationships between the Middle East’s various state and non-state actors will shape once the dust settles. It is far too early for such predictions.

Nonetheless, it seems quite safe to assume that Washington will be shifting much of its focus back to the Middle East. Perhaps this will come at the expense of the US’s attention and commitment to Ukraine’s struggle.

Since Hamas launched “Operation Al Aqsa Flood” on 7 October, there has been much Manichean rhetoric from lawmakers in Washington about a “religious war” and the “unadulterated evil” of Hamas, eerily reminiscent of the “War on Terror” language from the George W. Bush era.

Like his predecessors, President Joe Biden and his administration are going all out in terms of supporting Israel. Biden and those in his inner circle have made it clear to the world that there is no daylight between Washington and Tel Aviv.

By deploying an aircraft carrier to waters off the besieged Gaza’s coast, the US sent a powerful message about its strong military presence in the Middle East and unwavering support for Israel as it unleashes massive death, destruction, and utter mayhem on 2.3 million people (half of whom are children) in Gaza.

Biden is traveling to Israel on Wednesday to express support with its long-standing ally.

However, the US’s policies toward Israel and Palestine could not be at any more odds with the Arab public opinion. The mainstream narratives in Washington and those among Arab societies about the Palestinian resistance are worlds apart. Rising anti-Americanism in the Arab region and wider Islamic world can be expected in this upcoming period with the world’s eyes set on the conflict.

“…[Biden’s] administration so far resists publicly positioning the US in support of de-escalation, which would introduce the political context of the crisis into the equation,” Ferial Saeed, a former senior American diplomat, told TRT World.

“Without that context, all solutions are military. That is a big liability for Washington because things will likely get worse for both sides and the region as a result, and the US is likely to be blamed given its role in leading the international response.”

There is every reason to bet that both China and Russia will seek to capitalise on growing anti-American sentiments in the Middle East amid widespread rage in the region that is directed against Israel and, by extension, the US.

Although both Beijing and Moscow have developed positive relationships with Tel Aviv, China and Russia have consistently been in favour of resolving the Palestinian question in line with international law while firmly opposing the Israeli occupation.

Also, neither of these countries have designated Hamas a terrorist entity, instead viewing it as a legitimate resistance organisation. Essentially, Beijing and Moscow have managed over the years to grow friendly ties with Israel, but not in ways that significantly harm their image on the “Arab street”.

As this ongoing crisis plays out, officials in Beijing and Moscow have opportunities to criticise Washington’s handling of the Palestinian issue and highlight how isolated the US is when it comes to dealing with the Israel-Palestine crisis. There’s much precedent for this.

Amid the Hamas-Israel fighting of May 2021, China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi slammed Washington for obstructing a statement by the UN Security Council that could have eased the situation.

Indeed, yesterday a Russian-drafted and Chinese-supported UN Security Council resolution, which would have called for an immediate ceasefire for humanitarian purposes, failed because the US, France, Japan, and United Kingdom voted against it while six countries (Albania, Brazil, Ecuador, Ghana, Malta, and Switzerland) abstained.

With the US having long attempted to pressure Beijing over the ways it has exercised its veto authority in certain instances such as Syria, Sudan, and Myanmar, Washington’s position against UN Security Council resolutions condemning Israel gives Beijing a chance to appear as though it is a far more responsible player on the international stage.

Three days after Hamas launched “Operation Al Aqsa Flood”, Russian President Vladimir Putin voiced his concerns about the “catastrophic increase” in Israeli and Palestinian deaths in a meeting with Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al Sudani who was visiting Moscow.

Putin argued that the establishment of a Palestinian state is “necessary” and he blamed Washington for the ongoing bloodshed. “I think that many people will agree with me that this is a vivid example of the failure of United States policy in the Middle East,” he said.

Moreover, with Russia continuing to wage its war in Ukraine, officials in Moscow will be pleased by this chance to have international outrage shift from the Ukrainian crisis to Israel-Palestine with Russia perhaps receiving less negative attention for invading its neighbour almost 20 months ago.

Doubtless, Russian policymakers will be closely watching Washington’s response to the horrific events in Israel-Palestine, while remaining optimistic about what the fighting between Hamas and Israel could mean for Moscow’s interests in Ukraine.

“Russia hopes that the crisis will diminish US support for Ukraine,” said Gordon Gray, a former US ambassador to Tunisia, in an interview with TRT World. 

“But Russia will tread lightly because it will want to preserve its relationship with Israel, which heretofore has not been a fervent supporter of Ukraine.”

Ultimately, as the world becomes more multipolar, China and Russia constantly seek ways to respond to international crises in order to bolster their messages to receptive audiences in Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America about the US militarism, arrogance, and flawed foreign policy being among the root cause of problems in various regions.

As the BRICS bloc expands, Beijing and Moscow’s efforts to depict themselves as defenders of the Palestinian cause will be positively received in the Global South. As China and Russia contrast their positions toward Israel-Palestine with those of the US, many Arabs will continue viewing Beijing and Moscow as more trustworthy, reliable, and responsible global players than Washington.