What’s the situation in Rafah and what’ll happen if Israel invades?

Nearly 1.5 million Palestinians are currently crammed into the small southern city of Rafah in Gaza, where they are under frequent Israeli aerial bombardment and struggling to survive with severely limited access to shelter, food, hygiene and medicine.

“We live in an atmosphere of terror,” Rafah resident Yasser Saleh tells TRT World, with Israeli bombs striking their city “every moment” and no sanitary water or flour to make food for his children.

“My son Mohammed, 9, is in pain. High temperature and vomiting due to contamination of water… and lack of healthy food. Before that, my sons Ibrahim, 13, Mayar, 7, and Yara, 11 were injured,” Saleh says.

“Life is very painful.”

Alongside Saleh and his family, two-thirds of all of Gaza's population reside in dire conditions in Rafah. Many are displaced in overcrowded shelters without enough food or water, and with diseases already spreading.

Israel’s war on Gaza has now killed at least 29,878 people and injured another 70,215 across the enclave, with bombardments mostly in the north.

However, all eyes are now on the south as the Israeli military announced it is expanding its ground invasion into Rafah – a move aid organisations like Islamic Relief Worldwide say will have catastrophic consequences for civilians and for humanitarian aid.

“Rafah is a key entry point to the rest of the Gaza Strip and has been vital for the delivery of the small amount of aid that has entered the territory since October 7,” International Media Coordinator for Islamic Relief Worldwide Michael Selby-Green tells TRT World.

“Not only would an attack likely choke off this lifeline to Gaza but it could also further degrade what vital food stocks and supplies are left. A new assault would make this horrific situation even worse.”

So what do we know about the current situation in Rafah?

Overcrowded

Rafah spans approximately 64 square kilometres. In other words, it is just one-fifth of the land area of Munich in Germany, yet both cities have the same population currently.

The city’s population density, at about 23,437 people per square kilometre, surpasses that of major cities such as New York City and Mumbai. In fact, if you were to evenly distribute Rafah’s land, each person would have only about one square metre of space to themselves.

Rafah is also the site of the Rafah Border Crossing, the only crossing point between Egypt and Gaza. It used to house Gaza's only airport, Yasser Arafat International Airport, which was operational from 1998 to 2001 until the Israeli military (IDF) destroyed it.

Prior to Israel’s latest war, Rafah had a population of 171,889, according to 2017 estimates. But after Tel Aviv began its bombing campaign in October, civilians in northern Gaza were told to flee to southern Gaza, which they designated a “safe zone”.

However, in around three months, Israel dropped 2,000-pound bombs at least 200 times in the zone, according to a New York Times investigation in December.

Islamic Relief Worldwide staff report Palestinians want to flee the city “but have nowhere safe to go,” Selby-Green tells TRT World.

Lack of supplies

The UN’s humanitarian aid deliveries to Gaza have rapidly dwindled, with a reported 50 percent drop in February compared to January, according to Philippe Lazzarini, head of the UN agency for Palestinian refugees (UNRWA).

“Aid was supposed to increase not decrease to address the huge needs of 2 million Palestinians in desperate living conditions” Lazzarini said.

Humanitarian organisations coordinate closely with one another and the UN cluster system in Gaza, as well as local Palestinian partner organisations, on the delivery of aid, according to Selby-Green.

Since October, Islamic Relief has spent over $10 million on its Gaza response, with most activity in Rafah and Khan Yunis. This includes distributing millions of hot meals and tens of thousands of hygiene kits, which include soap, nappies and menstrual products.

Between February 20 and 22, Islamic Relief distributed 95,850 ready-to-eat meals and organised psychosocial support for children in 12 shelters in Rafah specifically, to “allow them to be children for a time amid the suffering.”

“However, Gaza is the most challenging place to deliver aid right now. The needs are enormous and nowhere near enough aid is getting to people,” Selby-Green tells TRT World. “The attacks and siege are pushing people to famine.”

The Israeli blockade of Gaza and refusal of access for aid convoys is starving the enclave. Restrictions on the quantity and type of supplies allowed into the territory have been significant challenges for humanitarian efforts in the region.

Before October 7, around 500 trucks a day entered Gaza. But for many days in February, fewer than 100 trucks entered Gaza. For some days, there were as few as four trucks. With needs increasing but access decreasing, a critical gap in meeting basic humanitarian needs is widening.

This denial of access not only hampers immediate relief efforts but also undermines long-term sustainability of aid programmes aimed at rebuilding infrastructure and supporting livelihoods.

“We have worked in Gaza since 1997 and have a long history of supporting sustainable development programmes as well as emergency aid. However, due to the current crisis and the massive humanitarian needs, our long-term programmes are suspended,” Selby-Green says.

He also emphasised the danger humanitarian workers face from Israeli bombardment in Gaza, which he called “the most dangerous place in the world to deliver aid, with 340 health workers, 160 UN staff and many other aid workers already killed.”

“Our own office in Gaza City has been bombed and many of our staff members are themselves among the 1.7 million people who are internally displaced. They are trying to oversee aid deliveries at the same time as caring for their families.”

Breach of international law

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a statement on Monday that Israel’s military had drawn up a plan to evacuate civilians from Rafah ahead of its ground assault.

However, the United States has not been informed of any Israeli plan to secure the safety of civilians there, the White House said.

"We've not been presented (with) one. I can't speak for the Israelis and to what degree their planning has progressed and what that looks like," said National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby at a press briefing.

Meanwhile, Oxfam’s policy lead on Palestine, Bushra Khalidi, told the Guardian that such evacuations could be a violation of international law.

“Given the appalling situation in Rafah and the lack of access for a meaningful humanitarian response, such evacuations could be equated with forcible transfer of civilians and constitute a serious breach of international humanitarian law.”