Why military, forensic experts see Israel behind Gaza hospital bombing

Experts from various disciplines have been analysing camera footage that reveals the aerial trajectory of an explosive striking Al Ahli Hospital in Gaza on October 17 and resulting in the deaths of hundreds of Palestinians, the majority of whom were children and women.

Officials and eyewitnesses in Gaza have blamed the blast on an Israeli airstrike, which left over 300 civilians injured, but Israel has denied responsibility, claiming the attack was due to a misfired rocket launched by the Palestinian resistance group, Islamic Jihad, which denied the claim.

Refuting the narrative provided by Israel, journalists, weapons experts and eyewitnesses have held the Israeli military responsible for the strike, which amounts to a war crime according to various international law experts.

As a result, Israeli government officials have fumbled to keep a cohesive narrative across social media.

Hamas rockets and Israel's Iron Dome

An investigation carried out by Al Jazeera’s Sanad Agency found that rockets fired out of Gaza toward Israel just before the attack on Al Ahli hospital were all intercepted by Israel’s Iron Dome defence system.

However, the Israeli military presented imagery claiming the destruction at the hospital could not have been the result of an air strike, saying there were no visible signs of deep craters or significant damage to buildings that would result from such a strike.

Small craters are normally the result of mortar strikes, or artillery rounds, not missiles. According to Channel 4 News, a ground-detonating Israeli air strike is therefore unlikely, but it doesn’t rule out an airburst munition, which can have a big impact without producing heavy structural damage.

Possible bombs used in hospital attack

In an interview with Daily Sabah, retired military officer and ammunition specialist Engin Yigit said there was a strong possibility that the attack was carried out with an MK-84 guided bomb.

Yigit said a guidance kit can be attached to the front or back of the bomb, allowing for precise delivery and a proximity fuse can be used to detonate the bomb, either on impact, or at a desired height above the target before impact.

"Bombs with proximity fuses or proximity sensors may not create craters where they explode," he told Daily Sabah. "The hospital attack in Gaza may have been similar. How high the bomb explodes can be set by the user."

A joint analysis conducted by Forensic Architecture, an independent university-based research agency, and Amnesty International shows the use of MK-84 bombing over Rafah city in Gaza in 2014.

Forensic Architecture Research Fellow Francesco Sebregondi has said in a series of posts on X, formerly known as Twitter, that the small craters could be a result of a drone-fired Spike missile, which results in less extensive damage.

Human Rights Watch documented the use of Spike missiles in Gaza in 2009, saying the weapon has a concentrated blast and spreads tiny cube-shaped fragments up to 20 metres away.

Sebregondi also noted on X that it would be highly unlikely for a Hamas rocket to cause the high casualty inflicted on Al Ahli Hospital patients and displaced people.

Despite the statement made by the Israeli prime minister’s social media advisor Hananya Naftali that Israel does not bomb hospitals, since October 7, Israeli air strikes have damaged 24 health facilities, including 6 hospitals, according to the United Nations.

The World Health Organization has reported fifteen healthcare workers killed and 27 injured under the airstrikes.

Gaza’s Ministry of Health says the death toll in Gaza is now up to 4,137 Palestinians with 13,300 injured.