Why plan for a naval base in Cyprus is dangerous for the region

A recently-unveiled plan by Greece-administered Cyprus and Athens to construct a naval base on the island's southern coast has roiled the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TNRC) and threatened to upset the fragile peace in the region.

A recent visit by Greece's Defence Minister, Nikos Dendias, to southern Cyprus was centred around this project, which has also drawn a sharp rebuke from Türkiye.

Although Greek Cypriot Minister Vasilis Palmas emphasised the humanitarian potential of the base, implying civilian use, yet its primary purpose is clearly to accommodate military vessels, the meeting on Monday revealed.

In his remarks during the trip, Dendias also noted that the “defence ecosystem” in the region is open to “friendly countries”.

“Hellenism will have the most powerful armed forces in its long history,” he concluded.

The Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus views this development as part of a broader strategy to transform the southern part of the island into a military hub serving Western interests.

The Republic of Cyprus was founded in 1960 with the participation of two equal communities: Turks and Greeks. However, tension soared shortly after the foundation when some religious and official leaders from the Greek Cypriot community revealed intentions to unite with Greece.

In 1963, Greek Cypriots launched the Akritas Plan to eliminate Turkish Cypriots and take control of the island swiftly, but faced resistance.

Ethnic attacks starting in the early 1960s forced Turkish Cypriots to withdraw into enclaves for their safety. In 1974, after a coup in Cyprus, Türkiye negotiated with Greece and the UK and intervened to restore order.

TNRC’s suspicion on the naval base is reinforced by ongoing projects by the Greek Cypriot administration, in collaboration with the West, predominantly European Union countries, aimed at creating a “defence ecosystem” around the Mediterranean island.

The planned location of the new naval base is Mari (Tatlisu in Turkish), a village once inhabited by local Turks until the 1974 Cyprus Peace Operation.

The area, near the two major cities of Larnaca and Limassol, was the scene of a major explosion in 2011 which claimed 13 lives, shut down Cyprus' primary power station, and triggered a political crisis.

Criticising the new base decision, TRNC President Ersin Tatar reiterated warnings about the growing military presence in Southern Cyprus.

He said that historical mistakes by the Greek Cypriot administration have made it a target for major Middle Eastern proxy organisations.

Southern Cyprus is endangering 50 years of stability and jeopardising the hard-won peace on the island, Tatar noted.

Last month, Hassan Nasrallah, the head of Lebanon's Hezbollah group, threatened Cyprus for the first time.

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has also raised alarms over escalating tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean and warned the Greek Cypriot administration about making southern Cyprus a base of operations against Gaza.

"When we raised this issue, they suddenly declared it a logistics base. Militarising it and concealing its use for operations in the Middle East will not benefit the Greek Cypriot and Greece," Fidan stated in an interview last month.

While Greek Cypriot officials insist that the island's geopolitical value has increased and should be demonstrated through “international missions”, these missions might be more likely to facilitate the transport of ammunition for regional wars benefiting Western allies.

This could drag Mediterranean states into unprecedented risks.