World awaits ICJ verdict on Gaza genocide case against Israel

The top UN court will hand down an initial decision in a case against Israel over what South Africa and many others say is a genocide in besieged Gaza, a landmark ruling closely watched in the Middle East and around the world.

The International Court of Justice [ICJ] on Friday could order Israel to stop its war on Gaza or to facilitate humanitarian aid.

The court will not, however, pass judgement on whether or not Israel is actually committing genocide in Gaza.

At this stage, the ICJ will hand down emergency orders before considering the broader accusation of genocidal acts in Gaza — a process that will likely take years.

The case has been brought by South Africa, which says that Israel is in breach of the 1948 UN Genocide Convention, set up in the ashes of World War II and the Holocaust.

"South Africa does not need to prove that Israel is committing genocide," said Juliette McIntyre, an international law expert from the University of South Australia.

"They simply need to establish that there is a plausible risk of genocide occurring," she told the AFP news agency.

Over two days of hearings earlier this month in the gilded halls of the Peace Palace in the Hague, a world away from the Israeli aggression in Gaza, robed lawyers argued over the technicalities of the Genocide Convention.

"Genocides are never declared in advance," declared Adila Hassim, a top lawyer for South Africa.

"But this Court has the benefit of the past 13 weeks of evidence that shows incontrovertibly a pattern of conduct and related intention that justifies a plausible claim of genocidal acts," she added.

'World is upside down'

The case has sparked fury in Israel, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declaring that "the world is upside down".

Israel's lawyer, Tal Becker, dismissed Pretoria's case as a "profoundly distorted factual and legal picture" and a "decontextualised and manipulative description of the reality" on the ground.

The ICJ's rulings are binding on all parties, but it has no mechanism to enforce them.

Sometimes, they are completely ignored — the court has ordered Russia to stop its assault on Ukraine, for example.

Netanyahu has already suggested he does not feel bound by the court, saying, "No one will stop us — not The Hague, not the Axis of Evil and no one else".

'Huge' symbolic impact

"It is conceivable that an order by the court would not have any significant influence on Israel's military operation," said Cecily Rose, assistant professor of public international law at Leiden University.

But if the court decides there is a risk of genocide in Gaza, it could still have a ripple effect, notably on other nations that back Israel politically or militarily.

"It makes it much harder for other states to continue to support Israel in the face of a neutral third party finding there is a risk of genocide," said McIntyre.

"States may withdraw military or other support for Israel in order to avoid this," she added.

In addition, she noted the "huge" symbolic impact of any ruling against Israel under the Genocide Convention, given its tragic history.

In its submission to the court, South Africa acknowledged the "particular weight of responsibility" of accusing Israel of genocide, but said it was bound to uphold its duties under the Convention.

Israel has killed 25,900 Palestinians so far and wounded 64,110 in its brutal war in besieged Gaza.

Israel's war also displaced about 90 percent of Palestinians living in the blockaded enclave, most of them are food insecure, according to the UN.

Repeated comments from far-right and extremist Israeli ministers calling for ethnic cleansing of Palestinians in Gaza, settlement of illegal Zionists there or dropping a nuclear bomb on Gaza have also drawn vehement criticism around the world, which is one of the arguments that was presented by South Africa in The Hague.