A new era in Trump-Netanyahu relations: between loyalty and tension?

Donald Trump’s re-election as president on November 5, 2024, is not expected to alter his unwavering support for Israel.

However, his relationship with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is unlikely to be as seamlessly aligned as it was during his first term. After all, neither the Middle East, Israel, nor Netanyahu himself remains the same since Trump left office.

Amid heightened tensions in US-Israel relations, Netanyahu has encountered multiple challenges with the Biden administration since January 2023, from the Judicial Reform Bill to illegal settlements in the occupied West Bank. During this period, he successfully resisted pressure from the Democrats and, at times, effectively used this resistance as a tool in domestic political strategy.

However, based on Trump’s leadership style during his first term, it can be argued that Netanyahu may find it challenging to sustain the same trajectory. Moreover, whether there still exists a strong Netanyahu capable of stalling Israeli politics when necessary, as he did in Trump’s initial term, will only become clear after the conflict subsides.

The trust deficit between the two leaders also emerges as a critical issue here, while Trump was still contesting the 2020 election results, Netanyahu congratulated Biden in a video message—a gesture Trump later deemed an act of disloyalty.

Trump’s strength, Netanyahu’s weakness

After five elections since 2018 and a period of political instability—including a year in opposition—Netanyahu returned to power at the end of 2022 by facilitating the ultra-right Religious Zionist camp’s entry into the Knesset. However, his position remains precarious due to ongoing legal battles and the blow to his so-called "Mr. Security" image following the October 7 attack.

Netanyahu has grown increasingly sensitive to the demands of his coalition partners, on whom the continuity of his government depends, and has at times struggled to manage divisions within Likud itself.

As a result, Netanyahu currently occupies a position as a leader who has managed to survive politically in Israel through various manoeuvres. Facing numerous internal challenges, he is aware that as 2025 approaches, election pressures will mount, and that, despite delays, an inquiry into the October 7 security failures is inevitable. Additionally, the wave of opposition activism that began with protests in 2023 has maintained its momentum, now evolving into a dynamic movement focused on the rescue of hostages after October 7.

Limited foreign policy options

In foreign policy, Israel’s options have significantly narrowed since the mid-2010s. At that time, Netanyahu had an effective dialogue with Putin and engaged in multilateral initiatives, such as expanding relations with China and projects like the Chinese-led expansion of Haifa Port. However, partly due to the unique structure of US-Israel relations, this multilateral approach could not fully develop. Following October 7, Israeli foreign policy has become considerably more dependent on Washington, particularly in alignment with national security concerns. Moreover, since then, the legacy of the Abraham Accords from the Trump era and efforts to broaden the normalisation front with Israel have suffered a significant setback.

Trump, in contrast, enters this second term with a stronger position than in 2017, benefiting from greater electoral support and an enhanced political standing.

There is substantial interest in how US policies might shift on both global and regional levels, particularly in areas affected by crises. As this represents his second and final tenure, and considering the experiences from his previous period—including challenges such as the COVID-19 pandemic—Trump appears to be commencing this phase with a stronger position. This enhanced standing is likely to influence his approach to regional policies, with a key focus on the debates surrounding the wars he has promised to end.

As a leader who previously collaborated with Netanyahu, Trump played a pivotal role in several key developments aimed at reducing Israel’s regional isolation: the relocation of the US Embassy to Jerusalem, the recognition of Israeli sovereignty over the occupied Golan Heights of Syria, and the Abraham Accords. These actions undoubtedly bolstered Netanyahu’s position, enabling him to consolidate power. It can even be argued that these achievements contributed to Likud’s ability to retain a substantial number of parliamentary seats amid the political instability that persisted until 2023.

Netanyahu’s complex personal relations

Netanyahu’s unpredictability has made him an unreliable partner for US presidents, particularly when Israeli ambitions diverge from US regional interests. Adapting an approach based on the state of US-Israeli relations, Netanyahu uses both positive ties and disagreements as leverage in Israeli politics. When US opposition rises, he positions himself as a defender of Israel’s interests, resonating with the Israeli public. When relations align, he highlights his strategic role in achieving favourable outcomes.

This dual approach helps Netanyahu maintain popularity regardless of the relationship’s strain. For instance, during his 2019 election campaign, he showcased his cooperation with Biden and Putin, and after October 7, he portrayed himself as steadfast in securing Israel’s interests, despite clashing with Biden over Gaza ceasefire talks.

Here Netanyahu made several promises to the US administration, prompting Biden to announce a ceasefire plan. However, Netanyahu’s statements opposing certain terms of this plan soon placed Biden in a difficult position. Moreover, Netanyahu made negative remarks following almost every meeting framework.

Given Trump’s leadership style, it is likely that he would have less tolerance for Netanyahu’s intricate manoeuvres. Netanyahu’s tactics, aimed at appeasing his domestic audience while stalling the US administration and undermining the president’s image, may find less acceptance under Trump’s watch.

A promise to end the war?

Regardless of the administration or president, a significant deviation in US-Israel relations or a reduction in US support for Israel is not expected. However, Trump is not a leader who would tolerate being subjected to the same treatment from Netanyahu that Biden experienced. In other words, while Trump’s second term may not necessarily be more favourable for Palestinians, Netanyahu may face a more challenging period.

A central theme of Trump’s campaign was ending wars, and this focus will likely shape his foreign policy.

Given its prominence in international discourse and rising expectations, the Trump administration will likely pursue steps in this direction. The real issue, however, lies in the terms under which any conflict would end—potentially a challenging matter for Netanyahu. As the practical impact of Trump’s “end the war” stance unfolds, the dynamics of his relationship with Netanyahu will become clearer.

Decoupling support for Israel from Netanyahu

In any case, Trump is likely to adopt a challenging stance toward Netanyahu in this new term. While Israel is not expected to operate entirely under US orientation, it can be anticipated that it will feel increased pressure.

For Trump, decoupling US support for Israel from Netanyahu may be a pragmatic approach, making it likely that his rhetoric toward Israel and Netanyahu will diverge. In this context, Netanyahu’s recent reshuffling—replacing Gallant with Israel Katz as defence minister—can be seen as a strategic calibration. However, over the next two months before Trump assumes office, the situations on both fronts of Israel’s ongoing war will naturally influence the course of these relations. Thus, while a positive trajectory similar to Trump’s first term is not anticipated, the progress of the conflict will likely be a key factor in determining the depth of any shift in the Trump-Netanyahu dynamic.