A recipe for getting Turkey-US relations back on track

This week, a leaked letter from US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken to Afghan President Ashraf Ghani was made public by media in Afghanistan. The contents of the letter, if genuine, focused on restarting the peace process started by the Trump Administration last year. The letter is noteworthy for a few reasons. 

Firstly, it shows that the Biden Administration is finally developing its approach to Afghanistan. The May 1 deadline for the withdraw of all US forces is approaching quickly. However, there is a debate as to whether this deadline still applies since the Taliban’s commitment to the peace agreement is not certain. 

Secondly, the letter calls for a regional approach to end the fighting in Afghanistan, which includes countries such as China, Iran and Russia. This is the first time that such an explicit call for a regional approach involving Tehran, Moscow and Beijing has been made by the US. However, whether Russia, Iran or China can be trusted to serve in the best interests of Afghanistan remains to be seen.  

Finally, the letter stated that the US will ask Turkey to host the next round of peace talks between the Afghan Government and the Taliban. For historical, cultural, and economic reasons Turkey’s role in brokering peace in Afghanistan makes perfect sense. 

Also, Turkey has skin in the game: it has deployed thousands of troops to Afghanistan as part of the NATO mission there. Turkey is also the only country in NATO after the US that has commanded the NATO mission in Afghanistan twice. 

However, the benefits of Turkey’s role in the peace process could go beyond Afghanistan. It could even help US-Turkish relations by serving as an important confidence building measure for DC and Ankara.

After more than 70 years of a strong bilateral relationship, the US-Turkey relationship has been stuck in a rut. From the purchase of the Russian built S-400 air defense system, Turkey’s removal from the F-35 program, US support for the YPG/PKK terrorist group in northern Syria, and FETO ringleader Fetullah Gulen currently residing in rural Pennsylvania, there are no shortage of big problems in the relationship.

In order to get US-Turkey relations back on track, it is time for genuine and modest confidence building measures between both sides. Instead of focusing on the major sticking points in the bilateral relationship like the situation in northern Syria, the S-400 purchase, or the extradition of Gulen, both sides should focus on smaller and more achievable areas of cooperation. 

In addition to cooperation on Afghanistan, there are three other possible areas to focus on.   

The first is regarding NATO. Even with the problems in the US-Turkish bilateral relationship, cooperation is possible inside the NATO framework. For example, there is a lot of agreement between Washington DC and Ankara on the importance of NATO enlargement at a time when many others in Europe are wavering on this issue. Ankara and DC should work together to chart a path for NATO candidate countries like Georgia, Ukraine and Bosnia and Herzegovina to finally join the Alliance. 

Secondly, the US should work with Turkey regarding Central Asia. Central Asia is a region where the US and Turkey have common and overlapping interests. Both are suspicious of growing Russian and Chinese involvement in the region. The US wants European countries to tap into the region’s energy resources to reduce dependency on Russia and Turkey aims to be the energy hub that makes this possible. 

Turkey has major economic and trade ties to the region. According to its most recent Central Asia strategy, the US wants to expand its economic relationship with the region too. Both have an interest in keeping extremism and transnational terrorism out of the region.

Thirdly, Ankara and DC should explore areas of cooperation in Ukraine. Turkey has been one of the most vocal supporters of Ukraine’s territorial integrity in the wake of Russian aggression since 2014. The Crimean Tatars, a Sunni-Muslim and ethnically Turkic minority group indigenous to the Crimean Peninsula, have faced mounting pressure since Russia’s illegal annexation and occupation in 2014. Both the US and Turkey have raised awareness of their plight. 

Also, both Ankara and DC have agreed massive defence equipment sales and support for the Ukrainian Armed forces.  

Instead of all the focus being on issues like Gulen or F-35, the two sides should work towards common yet achievable issues. This more modest approach towards restoring US - Turkey relations is good for three reasons. First, it takes the high-level politics and theatrics out of the cooperation. Secondly, working on secondary, albeit still important, issues will help build much-needed trust between officials on both sides. Finally, cooperation on these issues could offer some quick victories in the relationship and can improve the image of the relationship in the eyes of the public.

Since Turkey joined NATO in 1952, the US-Turkey bilateral relationship has helped keep the transatlantic community safe and secure. Not only is it in DC and Ankara’s interest to get the relationship back on track, but also for the European Union, NATO and their partners in the region. 

As with all relationships in life, the US-Turkey relationship ebbs and flows and requires hard work, patience and understanding. Therefore, policymakers from both sides should not be ready to throw away seven decades of close cooperation for seven or so challenging years in the bilateral relationship.  

It is time to get to work and get the relationship back on track.