After the war on Gaza ends, what does the future hold?

May 15 marks the 76th anniversary of the establishment of Israel in what until 1948 was Palestine. From a Palestinian point of view, Israel's creation was an unmitigated disaster, both then and now.

It led to the expulsion and flight of three-quarters of Palestine's native population, who were dispossessed of their land and property. They were never allowed to return, or ever compensated for their losses, in blatant violation of international law.

The remnants of Palestine's population after 1948 living in East (Arab) Jerusalem, the West Bank and Gaza came under Israeli military occupation in the Arab-Israeli war of 1967. Despite UN resolutions calling on Israel to withdraw, these "occupied territories" have never been liberated.

Throughout the last 76 years, Israel has ruthlessly suppressed all resistance to its occupation. Thousands of Palestinians, including those who actively resisted Israel and those who were just bystanders, have been killed, imprisoned or frequently tortured.

Gaza was put under a draconian siege in 2007, intensified to a stifling degree after the Hamas attack on October 7. Its captive population has become a decades-long laboratory for Israeli weapons testing.

At the same time, Israel went on to amplify its anti-Palestinian campaign through its long international reach. By weaponising accusations of antisemitism at supporters of Palestine, it largely succeeded in silencing the Palestinian voice in the West.

Universities and public institutions, including Western governments, have meekly followed the accepted line, added to by a widespread and conscious self-censorship.

In 76 years, no one has been able to rein in Israel's power or prevent it from achieving its ends. No matter what its crimes, it has enjoyed an impunity given to very few. When that sense of invincibility was shattered on October 7, Israel was driven by its humiliation to mount a fearsome war of revenge on Gaza.

When the war ends

But sooner or later, the war will end, and when it does the crucial question will arise as to what happens next. For most international actors, the answer already exists.

The international consensus has it that the so-called two-state solution is the way forward. It would entail the creation of a Palestinian state alongside Israel, in line with UN resolutions. On May 10, an overwhelming majority of 143 of the UNGA's 193 member states voted in support of Palestinian state UN membership.

To many people, the two-state solution appears a reasonable compromise between curtailing Israeli expansionism and offering compensation for the deprived Palestinians.

It has a feel-good quality, a comforting mantra, unencumbered by questions of how it can happen on the ground. As such, many of Israel's friends and others have adopted it.

But in reality, the two-state project doesn't survive serious scrutiny for good reason. To begin with, it is clearly inequitable, dividing the land between Israel and "Palestine" by a ratio of 78 to 22 percent, respectively.

Allocating such a small space to "Palestine" would make it incapable of absorbing millions of returning refugees and exiles, unless the unspoken aim of the two-state solution is to ignore the Palestinians' right of return. That would be both illegal under international law and immoral.

There is also Israel's position on the two-state solution. No Israeli politician has ever accepted Palestinian statehood, and Israel's current government vehemently opposes it.

Unless that changes, or Western leaders show they can compel Israel to comply, the two-state idea is a non-starter. It should be added that to date, not a single Western state has demonstrated its willingness to make the two-state solution happen on the ground.

We are therefore left with an empty slogan. The Gaza genocide should have been the coup de grace to that idea and the trigger to think afresh.

October 7 lifted the curtain on some ugly realities the international community never wanted to face.

Israel is not "a light unto the nations." It is not a liberal democracy for everyone it rules, many of whom it violently oppresses and denies rights to. And it is a dangerous focus of destabilisation in the Middle East region and beyond. How to deal with this sober reality?

One state

In my view, for Palestinians at the receiving end of Israeli brutality, there is only one way forward: to convert the land between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea into a single democratic state where Jewish Israelis and Palestinian Arabs can live in equality.

It would be called 'Palestine'. That name is 4,000 years old. Israel is 76 years old.

Only in that way can Palestinians hope to unravel a settler colonial project imposed on them by force in 1948. Linked as it was to a Western system quite alien to the Middle East, it remained an outpost of Western empire, and wholly antithetical to Arab aspirations for independence.

The one democratic state project is not a sentimental call for love and friendship between former enemies. Given 76 years of torment on one side and supremacist fantasies on the other, that is not possible.

Nevertheless, it is the only practical, humane and just solution to this hideous conflict. The Israeli Jewish settlers who have made their homes in the country, however they came there, cannot be expelled or eradicated. They will live there with everyone else.

It is noteworthy that no country has officially adopted the one-state solution so far. The idea of a state for Jews as a haven from antisemitic persecution is deeply embedded in the Western psyche and difficult to shift.

Yet, commemorating the Nakba with the promise of a just future for all and the return to Palestine of its original people would go some way to redress the huge suffering endured by Palestinians and their descendants. And most especially the victims of Israel's genocidal war on Gaza.