Beyond Iran-Israel, there is Tel Aviv’s failure in Gaza – analysis

Regional experts have long anticipated a full-blown military confrontation between Iran and Israel, but the two regional powers have almost always managed to keep the tensions under the lid, while engaging in proxy battles outside their respective borders. But it’s no longer a fat chance.

Israel’s war on Gaza led to the exchange of tough rhetoric between Tehran and Tel Aviv, with the Zionist state firing the first shot in early April, killing seven Iranian nationals, including a top-ranking general, at the Iranian consulate in Syria’s capital, Damascus.

On April 16, Iran retaliated, launching a barrage of drones and missiles towards Israel – an unprecedented attack that was intercepted by Israeli forces with the assistance of the US. Some of the projectiles landed on Israeli soil, but no casualty was reported. However, the attack was big enough to shift global opinion – many observers began to issue warnings that we are on the brink of World War 3.

Three days later, Israel announced to have struck the Iranian city of Isfahan with missiles – a claim the Iranian military denied. Since then, no other strike has been reported.

Is it the end of this escalation? Only time will tell. But what we know is that both sides came out looking good by employing controlled aggression and inflicting limited damage through calibrated attacks, while the United States seemed to have had prior knowledge of both strikes.

Beyond the masterful display of "smoke and mirrors" by the US and Israel, the pressing issue of Israel’s ongoing massacres in Gaza took a backseat as global headlines focussed on the potential military clash between Iran and Israel.

Casting Iran as a destabilising force hellbent on ‘destroying’ the Zionist state, Israel tried to distract its citizens and the international community, particularly the American society, from the ongoing invasion of Gaza.

This narrative of victimhood, reminiscent of the 1973 Arab-Israeli War, where Israel fought against Egypt and Syria, invoking the Holocaust narrative and portraying itself as a victim, has effectively overshadowed the Israeli atrocities against Palestinians.

As the clock keeps ticking, the Israeli state will find it harder and harder to keep deceiving Israeli people by claiming victory over Hamas. Here are the four factors that determine Israel hasn’t achieved much from Gaza massacres except for a heavy death toll of over 34,000 Palestinians, mostly women and children, as of April 22.

Military failure in Gaza

The leadership of Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad remains intact, despite Israel's military going as far down south as Rafah. Furthermore, significant doubts have emerged concerning the political future of the besieged Palestinian territory. Initial proposals by Israel for resolving the conflict have increasingly been met with skepticism as the war in Gaza grinds on.

Israel, risking widespread isolation from the international community and facing criticism from some quarters of the US administration, has left a massive trail of mass slaughtering, exposing itself to legal repercussions at the International Court of Justice (ICJ).

Israel has already been taken to the ICJ, which issued an interim ruling in January ordering Tel Aviv to stop ‘genocidal acts’ in Gaza. Calls have been made that Benjamin Netanyahu and others must be tried for “war crimes”.

As pro-Palestinian protests in the West are intensifying, Israel’s traditional Western supporters are being constantly reminded of introspecting and questioning their blind faith in Israel both in terms of morality and realpolitik.

Israel is still heavily dependent to US

While the argument that Tel Aviv should act independently from Washington gains traction in the Israeli political debate, particularly among far-right groups due to the occupation of the West Bank, the Iran factor makes such calls redundant.

Days before the Iran attack on Israel, US CENTCOM chief Erik Kurilla was already in touch with his Israeli counterparts, assisting them in dealing with the Iranian attack. When the attack happened, Kurilla landed in Tel Aviv a day after. His visit and the US military’s involvement in neutralising dozens of Iranian projectiles highlighted that Israel needs the US more than ever.

The big question however remains. Will Israel keep violating the red line and engage in more massacres in the future? In the US, senators supporting the Zionist state are facing pressure to re-think their stance in light of Israel’s savagery.

Recent surveys show increasing disapproval of US policy during the Gaza war, notably within Jewish communities in the United States. Should this dissent escalate, the US might adopt even more strict measures against Israel in Gaza.

Cracks in Israeli coalition

The Gaza war has reshaped the political landscape of Israel. The fault lines in both the Netanyahu and anti-Netanyahu camps are clearly visible. Beyond these two primary groups, far-right politicians in alliance with Netanyahu have become critical of his handling of Gaza and Iran. On the other hand, the pro-establishment figures within the security apparatus are collaborating with Netanyahu despite having disagreements with his military policy.

The latter group within Israel's current political turmoil includes prominent former military figures such as Benny Gantz, Yoav Gallant, and Gadi Eisenkot, who are influential members of the War Cabinet. They have exerted pressure on Netanyahu regarding the conduct of the war in Gaza, especially concerning the issue of hostage releases, and have been vocal critics of his impulsive decisions.

Gantz, in particular, is viewed as a strong prime ministerial candidate due to his pragmatic approach and ability to collaborate effectively with the US. He has the potential to attract centre-left voters away from Netanyahu. Advocating for a calculated approach, Gantz emphasises that while Israel has the right to retaliate, any military action should be strategically timed.

The other faction within the Israeli government is led by National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich. Despite being appointed to the cabinet by Netanyahu, they have transformed their support into a form of leverage against him. Since 7 October, Ben Gvir has been arming illegal settlers who support him, emphasising his hardline position against Palestinians.

Known for his extremist views, Ben Gvir has been marginalised by Netanyahu and continues to criticise what he perceives as a "feeble" approach to the attack on Iran, advocating for a more autonomous stance from the United States.

Similarly, Smotrich, who shares Ben Gvir's critical view of the US, also opposes Netanyahu concerning the war in Gaza. These leaders push for more aggressive policies and a reevaluation of Israel's dependency on US support, reflecting broader tensions and ideological conflicts within Israeli politics.

Desperate situation of the Israeli army

The October 7 attack by Hamas shook Israel to its core. It dismantled the country’s carefully crafted global image of being an invisible military power in the region. For nearly four days following the attack, Israel struggled to maintain control over its border cities next to Gaza.

Israel’s invasion of Gaza revealed that while it may be a technologically superior military power, it lacked courage and order. Incidents of friendly fire resulted in the deaths of its own soldiers, citizens and hostages. Several reports suggest the army lacked discipline and is plagued by poor performance in urban warfare despite having years of experience in imposing blockades and occupations on the Palestinian lands.

These shortcomings will likely diminish Israel's reputation as a dependable military ally in the West. Given that Israel is one of the world’s biggest arms exporters, which also receives at least USD 4 billion annually from Washington, the fast erosion of its invincibility could significantly impact its strategic and economic interests in the global arms market.

In fact, Yitzhak Brik, the former ombudsman of the Israeli army, highlighted in a 2018 report that the Israeli military was not adequately prepared for a potential conflict. He reiterated this concern just two months prior to the 7 October attack.

A significant factor contributing to this diminished prestige is the internal discord within the Israeli army and its direct engagement in political affairs. These elements have evidently compromised its operational readiness and undermined its standing both domestically and internationally.

The refusal of reservists, particularly in the air force, to rejoin the military due to opposition to Netanyahu has starkly highlighted the political divisions within Israel's military structure. This discord is further compounded by the rise of the far right as a significant political force, with ambitions to reshape the army and dismantle the established security apparatus.

Such moves have provoked substantial unease among influential retired military personnel who continue to consult for the security sector. Also, the longstanding issue of integrating ultra-orthodox Jews into the army persists as a festering problem.

If these challenges continue to plague Israel, the day is not far when the country will be seen as an unending burden, never outgrowing the troubles of its own making, acting recklessly and pushing the world to the precipice of another World War.