Could a Trump revival of the Abraham Accords bring Palestinian statehood?

The re-election of Donald Trump has sparked discussions about reviving the Abraham Accords in a bid to extend peace and cooperation across the Middle East.

In an interview last month, Trump reaffirmed his commitment to expanding the Accords if re-elected, calling it an "absolute priority" of his administration. He suggested that a broad coalition of Middle Eastern nations could join the accords within a year, furthering his goal of fostering peace and normalising relations between Israel and Arab countries​.

While this initiative could foster security and stability, any renewed accords cannot ignore the need for justice and accountability for the Palestinian people, particularly for those responsible for the recent genocide in Gaza.

True peace requires not only economic and diplomatic normalisation between Israel and Arab states but also recognition of Palestinian political rights and accountability for human rights violations - issues Trump sidelined during his last term in office.

For decades, international aid has served as a bandage for the hardships of Palestinians. But what Palestinians need isn't more aid—it's fundamental political rights.

Beyond UNRWA

The potential abolishment of the UN's top aid agency in Gaza and the occupied West Bank, while concerning, could offer a path for Palestinians to move beyond emergency relief and toward true self-determination.

For decades, the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA) has provided essential services to Palestinian refugees, but this aid has sometimes perpetuated dependency, allowing humanitarian support to substitute for a lasting political solution.

Without UNRWA, the focus could shift toward building a Palestinian state capable of taking full responsibility for its citizens. This could dismantle a system where aid is often "weaponised" as leverage over Palestinians, refocusing efforts on establishing a self-sufficient governance structure accountable to its people.

However, abolishing UNRWA would only succeed if paired with serious international support for a Palestinian statehood process, ensuring the rights, sovereignty, and needs of Palestinians are upheld by a representative government.

Hence, the path forward must begin with a new, democratically elected Palestinian leadership that truly represents the people.

Internal divisions

Since the last Palestinian Legislative elections in 2006 and the political rise of Hamas, internal politics in the occupied territories have been fractured by disunity. This division has created opportunities for foreign manipulation, often leaving Palestinians caught in a political struggle.

Mahmoud Abbas, president of the Palestinian Authority (PA), was elected in January 2005, with his initial four-year term meant to end in 2009. However, he has continued to serve, leading to perceptions that he is out of touch. The recent escalation in Gaza has further strained Hamas’s leadership due to heavy casualties and infrastructure damage.

If the Abraham Accords are to achieve real and lasting peace, they must be grounded in dialogue with legitimate representatives of the Palestinian people.

A Trump administration would likely take a firmer stance on groups backed by Iran, such as Hezbollah. However, to resolve the hostage crisis and negotiate the release of Palestinian political prisoners, Trump could leverage his relationships with key regional players—Türkiye, Jordan, Egypt, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia—along with Qatar’s support, to broker a ceasefire, secure the release of hostages and prisoners, and push for a withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza.

This ceasefire would provide the international community with the chance to establish conditions for free and fair Palestinian Legislative elections within six months.

Regional diplomacy

The Abraham Accords, originally signed in 2020 with US support and Trump at the helm marked a major step in normalising relations between Israel and several Arab nations, including the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain.

While they promote economic and security cooperation, the accords do not address the core issue of Palestinian statehood, a concern for many in the region. Lasting peace requires that these accords expand to include a just solution for Palestinians, providing an independent state with secure borders.

Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Minister, Prince Faisal bin Farhan, reiterated that the Kingdom will not normalise relations with Israel without a clear path to a Palestinian state. In an interview aired on January 21, 2024, on CNN, he emphasised that resolving the Palestinian issue is critical for achieving regional stability. His remarks reflect Saudi Arabia’s consistent stance that peace cannot be achieved without addressing Palestinian aspirations.

Additionally, regional powers like Türkiye could play a constructive role in this effort. Türkiye, along with Egypt and Jordan, could help mediate fair terms for Palestinian statehood and broader regional cooperation.

By working in coordination with Arab nations, these countries could bolster a fair Palestinian peace process and help integrate a just Palestinian state into the framework of the Abraham Accords.

Roadmap to a lasting peace

Once elected, the new Palestinian leadership should participate in a peace summit that builds upon the Oslo Accords as a foundation, evolving toward the broader goals of the Abraham Accords.

This summit should focus on openly discussing and resolving core issues, with the aim of establishing an independent Palestinian state alongside Israel. Key principles would include Israeli withdrawal from territories occupied in 1967, including the West Bank, East Jerusalem, and Gaza, recognition of Palestinian rights to return within a Palestinian state, and fostering a sustainable, secure co-existence between Israel and Palestine.

By linking the Oslo Accords’ framework with the regional peace aspirations of the Abraham Accords, these discussions could set the stage for a more comprehensive and enduring peace. Once an agreement on Palestinian statehood is reached, the Abraham Accords could extend to Israel's neighbours, including Lebanon and Syria, fostering wider peace across the region.

By grounding this peace process in true Palestinian representation and an achievable statehood agreement, a path could open for lasting stability, allowing more nations to join in a regional vision of security and prosperity for all involved.