For Saudi Arabia, a Harris or Trump victory offers different advantages

As the world awaits the outcome of the United States presidential elections, the Middle East is seeing rising tensions between Tel Aviv and Tehran, as well as ongoing wars in Gaza and Lebanon, and the crises in Yemen.

Whoever wins has the chance to reshape US foreign policy in the region, and if they do, many Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states are hoping the president-elect keeps peace at the top of the agenda.

In a matter of days, either Vice President Kamala Harris or former president Donald Trump will win the closely contested election and prepare to take the reins of power.

But while Trump's approach to the Middle East is generally expected to be aggressive and unpredictable, to many Harris represents stability and a continuation of the Biden administration's policies.

The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is watching closely, as Trump and Harris may have starkly different views over matters important to Riyadh, such as the Iran nuclear deal, Washington's military deals with the kingdom or the state of affairs of Yemen or Sudan.

In the long-term, which outcome would be more advantageous for Riyadh: a Trump return or a victory for Harris? Both candidates have something - but not everything - that Saudi Arabia wants.

Riyadh and the JCPOA

When Trump withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in May 2018, he chose to enforce a "maximum pressure" campaign on Iran and re-impose sanctions on Tehran. In contrast, during her time as a US senator, Harris in 2019 stated that the US would rejoin the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement if she were elected president.

Since their rapprochement in 2023, Iran and Saudi Arabia have improved ties, but traces of the Riyadh-Tehran rivalry may persist. Still, many experts believe a revived JCPOA deal would suit the kingdom's interests.

Dr. Theodore Karasik, a non-resident fellow at the Jamestown Foundation in Washington, DC told TRT World that a new agreement would allow for a regional de-escalation. This would help Saudi at a time when it needs to curb defence spending and instead focus on 2030 megaprojects.

"It seems a Harris win would help to jumpstart such a process earlier rather than later if Israel and Iran can restrain themselves from attacking each other," Karasik said.

Zeeshan Shah, an analyst at FINRA in Washington, told TRT World that a new deal to cap Iran's nuclear program would be a positive development from Riyadh's vantage point.

Noting that there have been murmurs of potential Saudi investments in Iran, Shah said, "a revived JCPOA could even be a boon to major Saudi investments as Iran would be a huge untapped market for them."

He added that such a deal could happen under Harris but also Trump.

Shah said since the former president has hinted that he is not interested in conflict with Iran, and "knowing that Trump uses a largely transactional approach to policy, he may be amenable to dealing with Iran. But how those dealings would occur and could they lead to an opening with Iran is anyone's guess."

US-Saudi military deals

Riyadh has long been pushing to establish a security pact that includes civilian nuclear cooperation with Washington. But where military deals are concerned, could Saudi Arabia gain more under Trump, and further its ambitions as the largest Arab state?

In his previous term, Trump had announced a major arms deal worth $110 billion with Riyadh, though it sparked controversy as it was based on letters of intent, not contracts. On the other hand, the Biden administration froze military sales to Saudi Arabia in 2021, and then restarted them in August of this year.

According to Karasik, "more (deals) are in the pipeline for approval and US-Saudi military relations continue to be healthy." However, he agreed that a Trump administration could sell more weapons to Saudi Arabia.

But military deals could become "a double-edged sword for Riyadh," according to Dr. Nicolai Due-Gundersen, founder of Understanding MENA in London.

Trump had mentioned that "the US is not the policeman of the Middle East" and he may expect tougher compromises, such as normalising ties with Israel.

"This may include pushing for Riyadh to sign the Abraham Accords, as this aligns with Trump's notion of Middle East states being more interdependent in their security rather than turning to the US,” Due-Gundersen said.

According to Shah, the kingdom would be a huge beneficiary due to the warm relations Trump has with the Saudi royal family, adding that contact has continued between the Saudis and Trump after he left office via Trump's son-in-law, Jared Kushner.

Yemen and Sudan

A few other issues key to Saudi Arabia include its military campaign against Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen.

In his previous term, Trump had supported Riyadh on the Yemen issue by restoring US munitions held up by former president Barack Obama's administration. Trump had also vetoed legislation to stop Washington's support for the Saudi military campaign.

In contrast, the Harris administration is more likely to negotiate with Iran on the conflicts in Yemen and Sudan.

According to Karasik, Harris as president would likely continue the same Biden policies in Sudan and Yemen.

"The Red Sea littoral, featuring both Sudan and Yemen, is a strategic and tactical cauldron that is increasingly being challenged by hostile state and non-state actors. Either new administration will have to consider Türkiye's growing role in the Red Sea and Horn of Africa as part of the final analysis and remedy," he added.

In case of a Harris win, Shah said that he expected more pressure would be put on Israel to accept a ceasefire as that would then "end the excuse of the Houthis attacking shipping and Israel. But if the Houthis continue their attacks, I would expect the continued US policy of hitting back at the Houthis."

Similar aims

From a big picture perspective, despite a difference in approach, the policies of Trump and Harris share similar aims in the Middle East, such as establishing a ceasefire in Gaza, easing tensions along the Israel-Lebanon border and stopping Houthi attakcs in the Red Sea. Thus as a leading GCC state, the kingdom would likely have excellent terms with either administration.

However, to counterbalance China's influence, Gundersen predicted that Harris would "diplomatically engage main players across the Middle East" such as Türkiye, the UAE and Qatar, "and have a similar approach to Saudi Arabia."

Under Trump, though, there would be "stronger support for Israel, and greater hostility towards Iran."

Nevertheless, according to Karasik, "If Harris wins, expect her to travel to the Gulf. If Trump wins, expect the Gulf to visit Washington DC."

And, if any "violent kinetic exchange" takes place between Israel and Iran, Karasik said that the above diplomatic framing would change dramatically, as international powers "scramble to restore order in the core of the Middle East."