For the sake of peace in Lebanon, Hezbollah must take a step back

The 14-month conflict between Hezbollah and Israel has left Lebanon grappling with profound political, social, and military shifts. Last week, as hundreds of thousands of displaced Lebanese celebrated returning to their homes after a ceasefire was brokered by the United States and France, Hezbollah publicly claimed victory.

But the sentiment among the group's supporters and within the broader Shia community tells a very different story

The end of the months-long fighting marks not only the end of active conflict, but also signifies a turning point in Lebanon's internal dynamics.

For the first time in decades, the Lebanese Army and state institutions have emerged as the primary winners, while Hezbollah faces unprecedented losses in leadership, arsenal, and credibility.

Ceasefire terms

The agreement, which its brokers emphasise is designed to establish lasting peace, is rooted in UN Resolution 1701.

It outlines 13 key provisions, including a 60-day timeline for Israel to fully withdraw its forces from southern Lebanon - ending weeks of occupation and bombardment.

Concurrently, Hezbollah is required to disarm and relocate its forces north of the Litani River. As part of this process, Hezbollah will dismantle its military infrastructure in the area, ceding control to the Lebanese Army and the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), which will be bolstered with French troops.

To strengthen the Lebanese Army's capacity to maintain stability and enforce the ceasefire's terms, the United States and France have committed to increased funding and personnel support.

Furthermore, a US-led international committee will oversee compliance with the agreement and address any violations by either side, ensuring accountability and reinforcing the framework for peace.

Hezbollah's decline

Hezbollah, long regarded as a dominant force especially within Lebanon's Shia community, now faces an unprecedented decline. The September killing of its leader Hassan Nasrallah, alongside other founding members, has created a leadership vacuum that has shaken the group to its core.

Hezbollah gained immense popularity when it began to militarily resist Israeli occupation forces in the 1980s. It played a crucial role in Israel's eventual withdrawal from South Lebanon in 2000, after 18 years of occupation.

In 2006, the group captured two Israeli soldiers at the Lebanese-Israeli border, sparking a 33-day conflict that culminated in UN Resolution 1701 and the exchange of Lebanese prisoners held in Israeli jails for the bodies of the two captured Israeli soldiers. This outcome was seen as a strategic victory for Hezbollah.

After the eruption of the Syrian civil war in 2011, Hezbollah intervened to support President Bashar al Assad's regime, engaging in fierce battles against armed opposition groups.

During this period, Hezbollah expanded its operations, establishing vital supply routes through Syria and Iraq, eventually creating a land corridor all the way to Iran. This allowed the group to receive a continuous flow of arms and resources, strengthening its military capabilities.

Nasrallah frequently threatened Israel, boasting of thousands of long-range, precise missiles acquired from Iran, promoting the idea of strategic "invisibility" and an enhanced deterrence against Israeli aggression.

However, Hezbollah now faces a crisis that has eroded its influence and credibility.

Despite years of promises to its core Shia constituency that it was building an increasingly powerful military deterrent against Israel, recent military setbacks have exposed the limits of its capabilities.

The latest war has revealed significant weaknesses in Hezbollah's forces. Despite its claims of parity with Israel, the group has struggled to match Israel's technological and tactical capabilities.

This defeat signifies not only the end of an era for Hezbollah, but also the collapse of its image as an invincible deterrent. The gap between Hezbollah's bold promises and its actual military performance has fueled growing disillusionment within the Shia community and the wider Lebanese public.

Many are now questioning the group's ability to fulfill its longstanding commitments, and its credibility as a reliable force against Israeli aggression has been severely undermined. This disappointment was most acutely felt in Hezbollah strongholds such as southern Lebanon, the Bekaa Valley, and Beirut's southern suburbs (Dahiyah).

These areas, ravaged by relentless Israeli bombardment, saw thousands of Shia families left to fend for themselves despite Hezbollah's promises of shelter, protection, and support. For many, the sense of betrayal was palpable, intensifying frustration and sparking calls for change within the community.

Unexpectedly, the displaced Shia population found solace and support from traditionally estranged groups including Christians, Sunnis, and Druze. This newfound solidarity has begun to reshape Lebanon's social fabric, fostering new alliances that challenge Hezbollah's long standing dominance over its core constituency.

Now, Hezbollah's survival as a political and social powerhouse hinges on its ability to deliver tangible results in post-conflict reconstruction, in a war that saw almost 10,000 homes and buildings destroyed. With resources drained and credibility at an all-time low, it faces an uphill battle to restore faith among its base.

The Lebanese Army

In the wake of the ceasefire, the Lebanese Army has emerged as the cornerstone of Lebanon's sovereignty and stability. Its deployment to the buffer zone – previously controlled by Hezbollah and occupied by Israeli forces – marks a transformative shift in the country's power dynamics.

For the first time in decades, the army is widely regarded by many people as a unifying force, transcending Lebanon's deep-seated sectarian divides.

Unlike other actors mired in sectarian allegiances or foreign influences including Hezbollah, but also Jamaa Islamiya and other armed Palestinian factions in refugee camps like Hamas, the Lebanese Army enjoys trust across diverse communities, positioning it as a symbol of national unity.

The ceasefire agreement includes provisions to bolster the army's capabilities, with promises of increased international funding and personnel from the US and France, and also potentially the UAE and Saudi Arabia.

However, the sustainability of these commitments remains uncertain. Lebanon's ongoing financial crisis raises concerns about the army's ability to maintain its newfound role without sustained external support and political reform.

Ending the 'People, Army, Resistance' trifecta

For four decades, Hezbollah championed the narrative of the "People, Army, and Resistance" as the cornerstone of Lebanon's security and sovereignty. This war, however, has shattered that paradigm.

In its place, a new framework is taking shape: "People, Army, and Governance." This shift reflects growing public demand for a strong, accountable state to replace the shadow governance of Hezbollah.

The Amal Movement, which has traditionally been aligned with Hezbollah, appears to be shifting its stance.

Ali Hassan Khalil, a senior member of parliament and close associate of Speaker Nabih Berri, recently emphasised in a televised interview the need for "a strong state," signaling support for institutional reform and a reconfiguration of power dynamics within the Shia political leadership.

This statement reflects a growing call for strengthening state institutions and rethinking the balance of authority within the Shia establishment.

Following a Hezbollah defeat in the latest war, the power dynamics within the Shia political leadership could undergo significant changes. The Amal Movement and other factions might assert greater independence from Hezbollah, using the group's weakened position to demand a more prominent role in decision-making.

This could lead to a growing emphasis on strengthening state institutions, with calls for "a strong state" translating into efforts to diminish the influence of non-state armed groups like Hezbollah and empower the Lebanese Army and other official bodies.

Authority within the Shia political establishment could become more decentralised, reducing Hezbollah's dominance and encouraging broader representation within the community.

Financial and logistical resources traditionally controlled by Hezbollah, such as foreign funding and social services, might be redistributed or brought under state oversight, weakening the group's hold over the Shia population.

These shifts, however, would depend on the ability of other Shia leaders, particularly within the Amal Movement, to capitalise on the changing landscape and the broader political context in Lebanon and beyond.

The government's role

The Lebanese government played a limited but critical role in the ceasefire negotiations. Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati navigated the complex demands of Hezbollah's allies and Western mediators, securing an agreement that balanced precarious interests.

The ceasefire agreement mandates that Lebanese parties elect a new president, with a parliamentary session scheduled for December 9, where a breakthrough in the political impasse is anticipated under the leadership of Berri.

Following this, a new government is expected to be formed to tackle the urgent challenges of the post-war period. This government will face immense pressure to spearhead reconstruction efforts, address the worsening humanitarian crisis, and implement long-overdue structural reforms.

Failure to act decisively could deepen political paralysis and erode public trust further.

Meanwhile, Lebanon's presidential vacuum, unresolved since Michel Aoun's term ended in October 2022, remains a formidable obstacle to governance and reconstruction. The war has further exacerbated divisions over the presidency, as factions remain deadlocked over a candidate.

Hezbollah's weakened position, coupled with shifting political alliances, may shift the balance of power toward Western-aligned groups or individuals, but any resolution would require substantial compromise among Lebanon's deeply fractured political blocs.

This prolonged impasse underscores the urgent need for political consensus to address Lebanon's pressing challenges, including economic stability and a functioning government.

The 2024 war has fundamentally reshaped Lebanon's political and social fabric, with the Lebanese Army and state institutions emerging as symbols of unity and resilience. At the same time, Hezbollah's losses in leadership, arsenal, and credibility mark a potential end to its era of dominance.

The ceasefire agreement offers a fragile yet critical opportunity for Lebanon to rebuild. For this moment to become a true turning point, the Lebanese government must assert its authority, promote national unity, and lead comprehensive reconstruction efforts.

Meanwhile, the public's demand for a new vision of governance—centred on accountability and state-led solutions—signals a historic chance for renewal.

Whether Lebanon can transform this moment of crisis into a foundation for lasting stability depends on the collective will of its leaders and people to break free from the cycles of conflict and sectarianism that have defined its past.