French far-right's election upset and Macron's crown of thorns

The second round of the 2024 French parliamentary elections has brought numerous surprises. Notably, voter turnout reached a record high of approximately 66.6 percent, the highest since 1997, and marked the first increase between first and second-round participation in as many years.

The Interior Ministry announced that the leftist coalition, the New Popular Front (NFP), has secured the most seats (182) but well short of the 289 required for an absolute majority. The NFP is followed by President Emmanuel Macron's Ensemble Alliance in second place (168 seats), while the far-right National Rally (RN) was placed third with 143 seats.

The significant turnout explains the dramatic turnaround between rounds. Following the first round, where Marine Le Pen's far-right National Rally achieved 33.3 percent of the vote, many pollsters predicted a historic parliamentary seat gain in the July 7 run-off. However, this surge did not materialise, influenced as it was by various factors.

Left's pushback and Macronist recalibration

The primary factor was the strong mobilisation among supporters of the newly formed left-wing coalition, the New Popular Front (NFP), which united socialists, greens, and communists.

This unexpected alliance mobilised its supporters and strategically positioned itself as the final barrier against a far-right government coming into power. Despite facing numerous smear campaigns echoed by influential pro-far-right media tycoons, the coalition emerged victorious.

Typically marked by internal divisions and conflicts, this coalition remarkably maintained unity and extended gestures of cooperation towards Macron's Ensemble Alliance.

Previously critical of the NFP, Macron's coalition dismissed it ahead of elections, following a mantra of not aligning with either the far-right or the far-left. Before the first round, Macron's alliance focused more on criticising and portraying the NFP negatively than on addressing the far-right candidates.

In the second round, the gatekeepers within Macron's party recognised the need for a strategic pivot. Initially targeting leftist candidates, Macronists abruptly reversed course the day after the first round.

They backed candidates previously deemed extreme left or controversial, driven by a survival instinct to stop the RN's momentum.

However, this decision faced internal opposition within Macron's platform, as many candidates chose not to withdraw, opting instead to compete directly and often losing to RN candidates.

Consequently, the NFP even withdrew 150 candidates in favour of Macron's platform, a move that revived the latter as it was teetering on the edge of collapse.

In contrast, Macron's party only made 80 withdrawals, and only 19 of those benefited its arch-nemesis, Jean Luc Mélenchon's party.

The leftist voter base was also more disciplined. At least 72 percent of the left's support base voted for Macronist candidates, whereas only 43 percent of Macron's coalition reciprocated the gesture.

RN's catalogue of errors

Compounding RN's challenges were several racist and extremist incidents involving its candidates, undermining efforts to present a respectable image before the elections.

Efforts by France's far-right to present a respectable image ahead of the elections were marred by several racist and extremist incidents involving their candidates.

RN leaders Pen and Jordan Bardella attempted damage control by swiftly condemning what they termed as "bad apples" to mitigate the fallout.

However, dismissing these damaging incidents by attributing them to hasty candidate selection did not resonate well with voters.

Initially riding high on their successes in the European elections, RN leaders claimed to have fielded top-notch candidates, which was far from the case. Now, their conflicting statements have eroded their credibility. This inconsistency has undermined their image more than the isolated incidents they swiftly disavowed.

For many voters, this oversight reflects amateurism in candidate selection. For others, these are not mere mistakes in casting, it reflects the party's essence. Recent polls indicate that a majority of French citizens view the RN as racist and intolerant.

Additionally, RN leaders escalated tensions with provocative statements. Le Pen accused Macron of orchestrating an administrative coup following his appointments within the Interior Ministry, which falls under his jurisdiction.

Notably, these appointments included the military governor of Paris, the new chief of staff of the air force, the new director of the European Union at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and three ambassadors.

Moreover, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs posted a photo of Le Pen and expressed support for the RN's success in the first round of the legislative elections.

This endorsement from the Kremlin sparked criticism of the party. Raphael Glucksmann from the left voiced his concern, stating, "Yesterday, we saw the Russian Foreign Ministry practically endorsing the RN. Why? For ten years, the RN has functioned as Putin's fifth column within our democracy."

Unanswered questions

An estimated 10.5 million French citizens voted last week for the RN. For once, they believed their party was on the brink of seizing power. Now, they are being told that due to a Republican front and alliances among other parties, their party will not govern.

The truth is that a huge mobilisation was made from the centre to suppress the periphery.

The question is how will these 10 million people react, feeling that victory has been denied to them?

After these results, there's uncertainty about how to address the country's challenges. Every effort was made to keep the RN out of power.

There's now an electoral alliance between the presidential majority and the left, who differ on nearly every issue. On what platform will the emerging coalition govern, and, more importantly, what will be Macron's next move now that his party has received an unexpected lifeline?

That's the million-dollar question.

Meanwhile, Odoxa's pollsters conducted an economic sentiment survey over the past months, revealing a significant decline in French morale.

Respondents indicated pessimism across the board: whether the left, the presidential majority, or the RN wins, they anticipate worsening economic conditions for both the country and themselves.

This pervasive pessimism underscores the high stakes of these elections. The latest poll asked French citizens whether France would emerge stronger or weaker from these legislative elections. Only 15 percent believe France will be strengthened, while a staggering 58 percent foresee a weakening.

In sum, these polls underscore the complexity and uncertainty facing France in the aftermath of the 2024 legislative elections, with profound implications for its political landscape and economic outlook.