Gaza and beyond: Why Hezbollah presents a different challenge for Israel

As Israel continues to pummel Palestinians in its genocidal war on Gaza, the possibility of an Israeli military offensive into southern Lebanon and thus opening a new front has become a topic of discussion in international media.

If this scenario – which the United Nations has warned could lead to “a catastrophe beyond imagination” – materialises, the question of whether the Lebanese Hezbollah's military capabilities can withstand Israel’s military prowess becomes of paramount importance.

However, dissecting the potential outcomes of a possible war in the region is challenging without first addressing the extent of Hezbollah's military strength and examining past experiences.

Blast from the past

One of the most significant conflicts between Hezbollah and Israel was the 33-Day War of 2006, known as the ‘Second Lebanon War’.

This war marked a pivotal turning point in Lebanese-Israeli relations and still serves as a crucial historical marker for current and potential future developments.

This extensive war – initiated by Tel Aviv in response to the kidnapping of two Israeli soldiers by Hezbollah – involved 40,000 Israeli troops, while the Israeli Air Force conducted an average of 270 combat flights per day.

As a result of these Israeli air strikes, 15,000 homes were completely destroyed. Additionally, 31 significant sites—including airports, commercial ports, hydroelectric power plants, and oil refineries—along with 80 bridges, were demolished.

The strikes resulted in the deaths of nearly 1,200 Lebanese civilians and at least 180 militants of Hezbollah. In retaliation, Hezbollah fired an estimated 4,000 missiles into Israel, resulting in 165 Israeli fatalities.

During the 33-day Israeli offensive on Lebanon, several key sites were repeatedly targeted, including Hezbollah's headquarters and central office in southern Beirut, the offices and residences of Hezbollah leaders, the main building of Al Manar television, Al Nour radio station, and the fuel depots and main terminal of Rafik Hariri Airport.

On the night of July 13, in a carefully planned intelligence operation, the Israeli Air Force targeted a storage facility containing 59 Fajr missiles, 59 Zelzal 2 missiles, and hundreds of smaller missiles.

Mossad later disclosed that this operation was the culmination of six years of planning and intelligence gathering that reportedly destroyed approximately two-thirds of Hezbollah's missile capacity.

Compared to previous conflicts, the 33-Day War was far more intense.

For instance, the Israeli Air Force conducted 11,879 combat flights in 2006, far exceeding the 1,123 combat flights in the 1973 Arab-Israeli War.

Additionally, the Israeli army carried out 170,000 artillery strikes on various targets, doubling the number from 1973. The Israeli Navy, actively engaged in the conflict, carried out 2,500 attacks on coastal targets.

In essence, Israel launched a massive, all-out, multi-pronged offensive aimed at eradicating Hezbollah.

And therein lies the catch.

Despite the devastating blows and enormous damage sustained by Hezbollah and Lebanon, the entity and the country emerged even stronger. It can be argued that today, Hezbollah possesses a stronger military capacity than ever before.

Hezbollah’s military strength

Hezbollah, headquartered in Beirut, is a Lebanese Shia group with close ties to Iran. According to a study published by The New York Times on November 27, 2017, the organisation's maximum militant mobilisation capacity is estimated at 50,000.

However, the secretary general of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, claims that this figure is 100,000, while his deputy, Naim Qassem, cites the figure claims of 60,000.

The military wing of Hezbollah is known as the Military Wing of the Islamic Resistance and is headed by the Jihad Council, which serves as the group’s command centre.

The most significant units affiliated with the Jihad Council are the Nasr Brigade, Badr Brigade, Aziz Brigade, Haydar Brigade, Rizwan Brigade, Abbas Brigade, Missile Brigade, Cyber Security Brigade, and Intelligence Brigade.

Members of the Nasr Brigade are deployed in southern Lebanon along the Lebanese-Israeli border up to the Litani River, while members of the Badr Brigade are stationed in the area north of the Litani River up to the Lebanese city of Sayda.

The Aziz Brigade members are deployed in southeastern Lebanon up to the west of the Bekaa Valley, and the Haydar Brigade members are stationed in the central regions of the Beqaa, Baalbek, and Hermel. The Rizwan Brigade and the Abbas Brigade are the special operations units of Hezbollah, utilised for commando and special operations.

A significant aspect of the Hezbollah organisation's power is its missile capability – its missile arsenal is not limited to those reportedly purchased from or donated by Iran. It is also known to possess production facilities.

According to various sources, Hezbollah holds more than 100,000 missiles, predominantly short and medium-range, including the Iranian Fajr-3 (range: 43 km), Fajr-5 (range: 75 km), Ra'ad-2, Ra'ad-3, FROG-7 (of Russian origin), Zelzal-1 (range: 125-160 km), and Zelzal-2 (range: 210 km). It is also alleged that Lebanese Hezbollah possesses M-600 and Scud-D missiles.

Reports in the regional press claim that Iran has supplied Hezbollah with the long-range strategic missile, Fateh-110, which would enable Lebanese group to target Tel Aviv directly.

In recent times, Hezbollah has augmented its missile force, a crucial component of its deterrent capability, with the addition of unmanned combat aerial vehicles (UCAVs), more commonly referred to as drones.

It is known that Hezbollah acquired its UCAV technology from Iran. According to reports, the UCAVs possessed by Hezbollah are Iranian-made Muhajir-2 drones. Additionally, the group is known to have the Nur anti-ship cruise missile.

Today, Hezbollah has a stronger military profile than it was in 2006 and has achieved deterrent capabilities to challenge even regular armies in the region.

Can Israel bully Hezbollah?

Since the onset of the Israel's war on Gaza, one of the topics that has persistently remained on the agenda is the possibility of Israel entering southern Lebanon and the consequent spread of the war to the region.

Therefore, the question arises: how likely is this scenario?

Considering Israel's recent activities vis-a-vis southern Lebanon, it can be argued that Israel has refrained from taking any significant steps and seems to be hesitant to launch such an offensive.

This indecision is likely rooted in its historical experiences with Lebanon and concerns about the military capacity of Hezbollah. However, this hesitation does not mean the war could not spread, and ongoing regional conflicts might escalate into a full-scale war at any moment.

However, what is noteworthy is that Israel is hesitant to exercise the same level of aggression and brutality in Lebanon as it has been doing in Gaza. This is most likely due to concerns over the potential Israeli casualties and the realisation that it will face a major fighting force and not innocent children and civilians as in Gaza.

A 130-page report produced by an Israeli think-tank, the Reichman University Institute for Counter-Terrorism, has warned that a war in Lebanon could lead to unpredictable and catastrophic consequences for Israel and could plunge the country into an irreversible state of chaos.

Israel’s political leadership will prefer not to ignore the warning by the think-tank, which drew on the expertise of more than 100 terrorism experts, former senior security officials, academics, and government officials.

For all its bravado, Israel will perhaps be a bit more hesitant to handle southern Lebanon in the same belligerence as it did in Gaza.