Haniyeh's assassination threatens to drag Iran's neighbours into wider war

It is stating the obvious that the shocking assassination of Hamas’ political bureau chief Ismail Haniyeh in Iran’s capital, Tehran, has added another dangerous twist to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

This assassination – carried out by Israel – can work as a catalyst in broadening the Israeli war in Gaza and has all the potential to snowball into a wider conflict.

If this happens, its shockwaves would be felt across the globe both directly and indirectly because of the potential impact on world oil prices and international sea trading routes. Therefore, the world and regional powers, especially the United States, must act fast to help defuse the simmering tensions in the Middle East and double their efforts to end Israel’s war on Palestinians.

But the window of diplomatic intervention to bring down the temperature could be a small one this time around.

The murder of Haniyeh, who was widely considered a moderate leader, and his bodyguard occurred at around 2 am at the residence for war veterans where he was staying in Tehran, according to Iran’s state media.

The building housing Haniyeh got hit by an “airborne projectile”, Iranian media reports say.

The fact that he was there to attend the inauguration of Iran’s 9th President, Masoud Pezeshkian, is not only a matter of great embarrassment for the Iranian leadership but also raises questions about their security arrangements for a highly valued guest like Haniyeh.

The timing of the assassination and its symbolism have put Tehran in a catch-22 situation. On one hand, Iran would be forced to retaliate in one way or another at a time when the country is trying hard to flash its power in the region. On the other hand, the escalation could have a steep price for Tehran, given that Israel enjoys the support of the US-led Western bloc.

Although there is no official word from Israel about the assassination so far, the Iranian state media is already pointing fingers toward Tel Aviv. Israel doesn’t openly acknowledge its attack inside Iran. But it has been linked to assassinations of Iranian nuclear scientists and military commanders in the past.

The world has witnessed how Iran retaliated to the April 1 Israeli air strike on its consulate in Damascus, which killed seven Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps commanders, including two generals.

Two weeks after the Israeli attack, Iran responded with a barrage of drone and missile attacks on Israel. However, most of these drones and missiles were intercepted.

Though Israel did give a swift response to the attack with an assault on an Iranian air base, an escalation did not occur. However, these tit-for-tat attacks brought the years-old Iran-Israel secret war into the open.

Will Israel and Iran be able to contain their hostilities as they did in April this year? This is a question which comes with many ifs and buts.

The governments of Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which are performing a high-wire diplomatic balancing act in the wake of the war in Gaza, could also be forced to show their cards and perhaps choose a side if Iran and Israeli tensions transform into open hostilities. The same would be the position of Pakistan, which shares a 900 kilometres-long western border with Iran.

Maintaining absolute diplomatic neutrality would be easier said than done. Any escalation will put many Muslim countries in a bind as they would also have to get ready to brace for the economic shocks of a wider conflict in the Middle East. This would be a nightmarish scenario for countries like Pakistan, which are facing an unprecedented balance of payment crisis. An upswing in global oil prices would only compound their economic woes.

And Iran and Israel remain just one aspect of the potential conflict, which the world powers need to manage on a war footing.

That area of focus is the Middle East itself and the protracted Israel-Palestine conflict. The Middle East is already on the brink because of the raging Israeli war on Gaza since October 2023. Haniyeh’s murder has further complicated the situation and serves as a blow to ceasefire efforts in Gaza that have been mediated for the past several months by the United States, Qatar and Egypt.

The assassination of its political chief has further squeezed peace options for Hamas as it would be forced to retaliate despite the fact that its armed wing now stands weakened and remains under tremendous stress because of Israel’s relentless war in Gaza. Hamas has already dubbed the killing as a grave escalation and vowed that it will not go unanswered.

Israel is not just locked in fighting with Hamas, it has also opened a front with Hezbollah in Lebanon. The group has close ties with Iran. On Tuesday, Israel claimed it has killed a senior Hezbollah commander in a “precision strike” in Beirut, which was already seen to provoke retaliation from the Lebanese group.

Then, there are other Palestinian and armed groups and cells. Haniyeh’s assassination can prompt them to act against Israel and its interests not just in the region but also in other parts of the world. The real danger would be from small, unguided groups, cells and individuals. This means that in the aftermath of the assassination of Hamas’ head of the political wing, the danger of revenge has compounded.

The assassination of Haniyeh also raises a question mark about the motive of the act as he was seen as a moderate face within Hamas, whose role was important in the continuing diplomatic efforts aimed at brokering a ceasefire in Gaza. He was seen as a major contact with other senior Hamas leaders, including Yahya Sinwar in Gaza.

The two back-to-back assassinations – one of a Hezbollah leader in Lebanon and the other of Hamas in Iran – could lead to a further escalation and widening of the conflict.

However, some deft, forceful and quick diplomacy can still avert the crisis from going out of control. As US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told reporters in the Philippines on Wednesday that he doesn’t think that war remains inevitable. “I think there’s always room and opportunities for diplomacy… We’re going to do everything we can to make sure that we keep things from turning into a broader conflict throughout the region.”

But can the US-led Western bloc and their Middle Eastern allies be able to rein in Israel and its belligerent strategy?

Will they be able to prevent the looming wider conflict? And are they in a position to bring sustainable peace to the Middle East by ensuring a fair and just deal that allows Palestinians the right to live with peace and honour in the land of their own?

These are fundamental questions that have no easy answers, given the bloody and tragic history of the Palestinian conflict.

But for now, it is not just the Middle East, but the world is on the edge because of Haniyeh’s murder and its possible ramifications.