How Assad's concessions to YPG gave the terror group 'legitimacy' in Syria

The YPG, recognised as one of the terrorist organisations undermining the order and stability of the Middle East, has been one of the biggest security threats facing Türkiye over the past few decades, besides significantly jeopardising the security and territorial integrity of Syria.

Supported by some Western nations, particularly the United States, the YPG's threat extends beyond Syria and poses a substantial risk to the security of Türkiye along its southern flank.

In fact, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan articulated concerns regarding the YPG’s activities in southern Türkiye in no uncertain terms during an official function in Izmir recently.

“It becomes clear that the issue transcends the fight against Daesh; rather, a sinister plan directly targeting our country and region is incrementally being implemented,” the president said.

He went on to add: “We are vigilantly monitoring the terrorist organisation’s aggressive actions that compromise the territorial integrity of our country and Syria, purportedly under the guise of a referendum. Türkiye will resolutely prevent the establishment of a 'terrorist state' by the separatist organisation in the northern regions of Syria and Iraq, adjacent to our southern borders. Faced with a fait accompli, we have previously taken the necessary actions, and whenever the similar circumstances arise, we will not hesitate to act decisively again."

The president’s remarks reiterated Türkiye's resolute stance and sensitivity concerning the YPG, reaffirming the country’s unwavering position of making no concessions to this organisation.

Nonetheless, various reports and analyses in the media have surfaced suspicions regarding certain European nations requesting Syrian regime leader Bashar al Assad to refrain from demonstrating equivalent sensitivity and resolve.

Particularly, the coverage of the Iranian media on a recent meeting between Bashar al Assad and his close ally, Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei, further intensified these suspicions.

The Iranian press documented the May 30 meeting between Ayatollah Khamenei and Assad under such an headline: "The distinguished characteristic of Syrian resistance must be preserved."

“On Thursday, Ayatollah Khamenei, the supreme leader of the Islamic Revolution, characterised resistance as Syria's distinctive trait…” and asserted that, “Syria’s unique regional stance is predicated on this distinctive trait, which is crucial and must be maintained.’”

Khamenei reiterated this notion in a post-meeting X-post.

However, the question arises: why did Khamenei feel compelled to underscore this point?

Assad's dual policy on YPG

Since the onset of the Syrian civil war, Assad has maintained a dual policy toward the YPG. In this context, there have been periods when the Assad administration, considering the regional dynamics, has opted to coordinate actions with the YPG, whereas at other times, it has implemented policies opposing the YPG.

Over an extended period, the Assad regime, guided by an unwritten agreement with the YPG and influenced by the civil war and international factors, concentrated solely on combating regime-oppositional groups and chose to overlook the YPG's separatist activities.

This stance afforded the YPG opportunities to expand and institutionalise, supported by aid from several Western nations.

The origins of the unwritten agreement between Assad and the YPG trace back to 2012. Following the withdrawal of the Assad regime from several border settlements in July 2012, the YPG, serving as the armed faction of the PYD, commenced filling the resulting void.

During this period, YPG flags were raised atop several governmental edifices in Afrin, Ayn al Arab, and Qamishli, symbolising the YPG's assumption of control over these territories.

Nevertheless, the expansion and consolidation of the YPG posed a threat not only to Türkiye's national security but also to Syria's territorial integrity.

In essence, despite Assad's rejection of the YPG's calls for political autonomy, the principle of "the enemy of my enemy is my friend" prevailed in the relations between the YPG and Damascus over an extended period.

The organisation YPG, designated as a terrorist group, recently announced its plans to hold what it refers to as local elections on June 11 in the territories it occupies in Syria.

This announcement has once again brought the situation in northern Syria to the regional forefront and raised questions about Assad's next steps.

Up to now, Assad has consistently emphasised Syria's territorial integrity and rejected the YPG’s demands for autonomy. However, it remains unclear whether he will maintain this stance.

Indeed, the Rojava Information Center, affiliated with the YPG, recently claimed that the Syrian central government has no intention of resolving its disputes in YPG-controlled northeastern Syria through military means.

This centre further asserts that the Syrian central government considers an agreement with the YPG feasible within a few months, rather than years.

Moreover, Elham Ahmed, a senior member of the YPG and co-chair of the foreign relations department of the so-called Democratic Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria, has confirmed ongoing discussions between Damascus and the YPG, though no definitive conclusion has yet been reached.

Emerging alliances

The Arab League's decision on May 7, 2023, to reinstate Syria in the group has marked a new chapter for the Damascus regime.

At the onset of the Syrian civil war, numerous Arab states called on Assad to step down from power; however, he is now being welcomed back as a legitimate figure.

The crucial roles played by Iran and Russia in preventing the collapse of the Damascus regime are widely acknowledged, with many observers asserting that without their intervention, the fall of Assad would have been inevitable.

Syria's return to the Arab League may herald the formation of new alliances. In other words, what remains certain in politics is that there are no permanent friends or enemies, only enduring interests.

Meanwhile, most Arab states that maintain good relations with the West are likely to seek increased influence in Syria.

The most favourable means to achieve this could be through granting more space to the YPG, a Western ally, within Syria.

Some of the concessions that Damascus has made to the YPG over the past 12 years suggest that this possibility remains viable.

For instance, the handover of the city of Qamishli and other regions to the YPG without any conflict, as well as the YPG permitting Assad’s forces to be stationed in border areas with Türkiye, are tangible examples of bilateral cooperation.

These examples indicate the potential for further collaboration. From this perspective, it can be argued that Khamenei's advice to Assad was not coincidental but rather a deliberate message.

Some media outlets affiliated with the YPG claim that the terrorist group’s members will conduct diplomatic meetings in certain Arab countries in the near future.

Concurrently, some suggest that a rapprochement between Damascus and the YPG is probable.

Given the influence of global actors in Syria, it can be posited that certain Arab countries allied with the West will likely play a significant role in facilitating this rapprochement.