How Erdogan's visit to Iraq reaped fruits of solid diplomacy

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's first visit to Iraq in 13 years embodied the consensus reached between the two countries on politics, economy and security at the highest level.

The display of the Turkish flag on the streets of Baghdad and Erbil—the provincial capital of the semi-autonomous and mainly Kurdish region— underlined the significance of Erdogan’s visit in the eyes of both Iraqi and Kurdish officials.

Significantly, Erdogan's visit to Erbil after Baghdad once again buttressed Türkiye's viewpoint that it evaluates Iraq as a whole, including its relations with the federal government and the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG), and does not prioritise one over the other.

In addition to the economic, diplomatic and security outcomes of the visit to Iraq and KRG, it stressed the need for calm, especially in mending the problematic relations between Erbil and Baghdad in the face of the corrosive effects of Tehran-aligned groups in the country.

Baghdad's stance on Ankara’s fight against PKK

Erdogan's long-awaited visit signified the increasing importance of Baghdad and KRG in Ankara's bilateral relations and regional policy.

The signing of 26 agreements and memoranda of understanding in areas such as energy, trade, media, defence industry, tourism, and security signalled that close diplomatic contacts are bearing fruit, especially after ministerial-level visits by both sides over the past year.

The most important outcome of the visit was the progress made on the Development Road Project, which includes rail and road connectivity starting from Basra in the south of Iraq, passing through Baghdad and Mosul and reaching Europe via Türkiye.

The fact that Türkiye, Iraq, Qatar and UAE signed a preliminary agreement to cooperate on the project will increase the possibility of funding and feasibility of the $17-billion project with contributions from the Gulf nations.

However, to realise such a huge project, clearing the region from terrorism and ensuring security is as important as funding.

And in this regard, Erdogan's visit highlighted Baghdad’s changing position. After years of criticising Ankara's anti-PKK operations, Baghdad has now come to the closest position ever to Ankara's stance in the fight against the terror group, though not entirely on the same page.

An Iraqi government spokesperson’s statement that they are working to sign a security agreement with Türkiye similar to the one reached with Iran implies that Ankara’s efforts are on the right track.

But it would require Ankara to keep close diplomatic contacts as seen before the visit.

Having said that, Erdogan’s demand that Iraq should designate the PKK as a terrorist organisation signals that Baghdad’s stance on the PKK will be tested in Türkiye’s planned military operations against the terror group in the summer.

On the other hand, Erdogan's separate meeting with Turkmen and Sunni representatives in Baghdad emphasises Ankara's strong ties with these groups.

But the fact that no separate meeting was held with the Shia groups once again emphasised the importance of Türkiye’s recently increasing official contacts with these groups, including pro-Iran actors.

Erbil and Iranian aggression

Erdogan’s visit to northern Iraq comes at a time when the Erbil-based KDP seems to be caught between Iran’s increasing attacks and the rulings of the Iraqi Federal Court.

KDP argues that the decisions of the court, which is dominated by pro-Iranian political groups, aim to target the region’s constitutional authorities.

However, Erdogan’s visit reinforced the fact that KDP is not alone in its search for balance against Iran. While the KDP is known to be close to Ankara, its rival, the Sulaymaniyah-based PUK, enjoys good relations with Tehran.

Furthermore, Erdogan's statement that “the Baghdad and Erbil administrations should establish a healthy dialogue and working relationship without allowing third parties to interfere” is crucial in terms of calling on the parties to find common ground.

To put the issue in context, relations between Erbil and Baghdad have been strained since the halt of oil exports to Türkiye, financial constraints, and a series of decisions taken by the federal court—such as ruling the KRG’s independent oil sales illegal and abolishing the minority quotas in the northern parliament.

Undisputedly, restoring Erbil-Baghdad relations will have a positive effect on stability in northern Iraq and increase the feasibility of Türkiye's Development Road Project and potential partnership in the fight against the PKK in the country.

Although the KRG does not consider the PKK a terrorist organisation, Ankara seems to be especially pleased with the cooperation of the KDP on this issue. In contrast, Türkiye is deeply concerned over the ties of the PUK with the PKK.

Despite the tense relations between Ankara and PUK, the moderate Qubad Talabani—the KRG Deputy PM and the younger brother of PUK leader Bafel Talabani—was also in the welcoming delegation, and among those included inter-delegation meetings during Erdogan’s Erbil visit.

This shows that the communication channel is still open between Ankara and PUK. However, it seems that as long as the PUK maintains its close ties with the PKK, Türkiye is expected to keep the airspace ban on Sulaymaniyah and will continue its sanctions against the party.

Considering Iraq's fragile and fragmented political structure, Ankara should continue its multifaceted diplomatic pressure, especially involving pro-Iranian groups that may pose an obstacle to Türkiye’s fight against terrorism, particularly in Sinjar and on the Development Road Project throughout the country.

Additionally, for the two countries to carry out long-term, stable, and sustainable projects and mutually agreed-upon security steps, it is significant that the troubled relations between Erbil-Baghdad and KDP-PUK are sorted out as well.