How the covert Iran-Israel 'war' spilled out into the open

In recent years, relations between Iran and Israel have entered a new phase, with Israel targeting Iran's senior commanders and strategic facilities, sparking a covert conflict between the two nations. The recent Israeli air strike on the Iranian consulate building in Damascus, followed by Iran's retaliatory targeting of Israel with missiles and drones, has escalated tensions between the two countries to a new level.

On the night of April 13, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Air Force targeted Israel with hundreds of drones and missiles in what it said was retaliation for the assassination of senior commanders of its Quds Force.

However, what is notable here is that it was Iran’s first direct attack on Israel from its territory in response to the overt targeting of Tehran’s assets by Tel Aviv.

So, what lies behind the recent Iran-Israel tension that has captivated the world's attention for the past few days and pushed the region to the verge of a wider conflict?

Background of Iran-Israel tensions

The covert conflict between Iran and Israel is believed to have commenced with Israel’s clandestine sabotage operations within Iran and escalated to targeted assassinations in Syria. Since 2020, Iran has been subjected to various suspicious bombing attacks, all allegedly by Israel.

Over the past four years, Iran has experienced numerous explosions in different regions, allegedly orchestrated by the Israeli spy agency Mossad.

The most high-profile is the explosion at Iran's Natanz Nuclear Facility on July 2, 2020. Iran's Supreme National Security Council said at that time they had identified the cause of the explosion but would disclose it at a later time due to security concerns.

The ambiguous statements from the Iranian government, indirect acknowledgements from Israeli officials, and various other indicators suggest a high likelihood that the explosion at the nuclear facility was a sabotage operation orchestrated by the Mossad.

Considering Mossad's significant intelligence and operational infrastructure within Iran, such a scenario does not appear improbable.

During the tenure of former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the Israel desk within the Iranian Intelligence Ministry was found to be a Mossad operative and subsequently executed.

Also, the theft of sensitive documents concerning Iran's nuclear activities – regarded as national secrets – by Mossad in 2018 and its involvement in the assassinations of key figures within Iran's nuclear programme, all underscore the Israeli spy agency’s substantial capabilities within Iran.

In most cases, Mossad has got away with even murder. Those linked to Mossad’s operations within Iran, including the assassination of Iranian nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, are yet to be apprehended.

In the aftermath of these sabotage operations, Israel openly began targeting and assassinating high-ranking commanders of the Iranian Quds Force.

Among those killed by Israel are prominent commanders such as Seyyed Razi Mousavi, Mohammad Reza Zahedi, and Mohammad Hadi Haj Rahimi. The spate of sabotage and assassinations revealed a fundamental truth: despite Iran's assertions to the contrary, it suffered from a significant intelligence vulnerability.

To mask this vulnerability, Iran chose to remain silent in the face of its setbacks.

High-value targets

The Israeli airstrike near the Syrian capital on December 25 last year represents the closest precedent to the attack carried out on April 1. Seyyed Razi Mousavi, a senior commander of the Quds Force, was killed in the Israeli airstrike in 2023.

Allegedly targeted due to his long-standing arms and logistical support to Lebanese Hezbollah and Iranian-backed militant groups in Syria, Seyyed Razi Mousavi was known as a close confidant and trusted associate of former Quds Force Commander Qasem Soleimani.

According to the Lebanese Aljadeed channel, Seyyed Razi Mousavi had resided in Syria with his family for the past 30 years and had even been granted a private room at the Syrian Defense Ministry.

Two days after his assassination, Brigadier General Ramadan Sharif, the spokesman for the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, stated in a press conference, 'Martyr Razi had been responsible for providing advisory services and logistical support to the Axis of Resistance in Syria and Lebanon for over 25 years,' thereby emphasising Seyyed Razi Mousavi's extensive tenure within the Quds Force.

The profiles of Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Zahedi and Brigadier General Mohammad Hadi Haj Rahimi, who were killed on April 1, suggest that they had close ties to Seyyed Razi Mousavi.

Indeed, at the time of his death, Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Zahedi served as the Commander of the Quds Force in Syria and Lebanon, while Brigadier General Mohammad Hadi Haj Rahimi held the position of Coordination Commander within the Quds Force.

The loss of these two commanders represents the most significant blow to the Quds Force since the assassination of its former commander Qasem Soleimani.

The Quds Force

Tel Aviv perceives Shiite militia organisations, operating under the Iranian Quds Force and spread across a wide geographical area in the Middle East, as one of the biggest threats to the existence of the Israeli state.

It is particularly concerned with the relationships of these Shiite militia organisations with the Palestinian resistance group Hamas. On the other hand, Iran views the Quds Force and its affiliated Shiite militia organisations as its most significant deterrent force.

The most significant organisations coordinated through the Quds Force – referred to as the Resistance Front in Iran's official literature – include Lebanese Hezbollah, Yemen's Ansarullah Movement, Iraq's Badr Organisation, Iraq's Asaib Ahl al Haq, and Iraq's Nujaba Organization.

The Quds Force was established during the Iran-Iraq war to conduct military operations inside Iraqi territory. In its early years, the Quds Force primarily focused on providing various forms of assistance to pro-Iranian groups abroad, organising foreign nationals residing in Iran under the IRGC, and establishing cells and organisations of Shiite militias abroad.

Presently, the Quds Force is the most potent and authoritative entity for implementing Iran's Shiite geopolitics doctrine. Indeed, the Quds Force executes Iran's strategies for the Middle East and North Africa.

In essence, the Quds Force continues the tradition of exporting the ideology established during the Iranian Revolution. By targeting senior commanders of the Quds Force, Israel aims to disrupt Iran-Hamas relations while also weakening Iran's most critical deterrent force.

Is a regional war imminent?

The brutal war that Israel has been implementing in Gaza for over six months has reverberated not only globally but also within the Islamic world, mobilising Muslim public opinion and reigniting war scenarios in the Middle East. One of these scenarios involves the escalating tension between Iran and Israel.

However, how serious is this prospect, and could Israel's assault on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, followed by Iran's retaliatory strike on Israel, potentially trigger a new regional conflict?

In fact, Israel has been openly targeting Iran for quite some time, and in recent years, it has inflicted significant casualties on Iran in its attacks against Iranian targets in Syria. According to the latest statistics released by the international human rights observer groups, Israel conducted a total of 51 drone and airstrikes and 25 missile attacks in Syria in 2023.

These 76 attacks resulted in the targeting of 154 buildings and weapons depots, leading to the loss of 152 lives affiliated with Iran and injuring 154 others. Israel's airstrikes in Syria have continued into 2024, with 22 drone and airstrikes and eight missile strikes targeting 54 buildings and weapons depots. In the last three months alone, 123 individuals associated with Iran have lost their lives in these attacks.

Iran's response to these attacks over the past two years has consistently been cautious, aiming to prevent the escalation of tensions and avoid war with Israel. Iran has similarly exercised restraint in the face of Israeli sabotage and assassination operations within its borders, refraining from mounting a significant retaliation against Israel.

Taking into account the legitimacy challenges they confront domestically and the diplomatic disputes with various countries, Iranian leaders perceive that engaging in direct warfare with Israel would incur substantial costs.

Thus, they have thus far opted to confine the conflict with Israel to rhetorical exchanges. However, it can be contended that Israel's stance may indicate a desire to escalate the conflict and involve the United States in the war.

Iran's cautious approach, despite maintaining a high level of war rhetoric towards the US and Israel, was most prominently observed for the first time in the aftermath of the assassination of Qasem Soleimani, which unequivocally indicated Iran's reluctance to engage in war with either party.

Iran's attack on Israel on the night of April 13 further underscored Iran's reluctance to initiate a full-scale war with the US and Israel.

This stance is evident primarily in the nature of Iran's attacks and the statements made by high-ranking Iranian officials. Indeed, Iran's concerted effort to minimise Israeli casualties in the attack serves to reinforce this notion. In essence, Iran's announcement of the attack 72 hours in advance, followed by its execution of an operation that proved to be ineffective, demonstrates its avoidance of direct confrontation with Israel.

Recent developments have left Iran at a critical juncture in the history of Iran. Strategically, Iran is reluctant to see its covert conflict with Israel escalate into a full-fledged war.

However, Iran's lack of response to Israel's provocative attacks would undermine the credibility of revolutionary propaganda and war rhetoric. Therefore, Iran has opted to respond to the question of whether to attack or remain passive with a measured approach this time.

It could be argued that Israel's aggressive stance stems from its efforts to transform the Iran-Israel conflict into a US-Iran confrontation. At the core of Iran's animosity towards Israel lies its instrumentalisation of the Palestinian issue, aiming to influence dynamics within the Islamic world.

In essence, the Palestinian cause is viewed by Iran not merely as a matter of faith but rather as a convenient instrument in the pursuit of power.

Iranian leaders seek to maintain their legitimacy primarily through the Palestinian issue, leveraging militia organisations within the Quds Force and the conservative base in Iran. However, this issue appears to have evolved into a serious and significant regional crisis.

Considering all this, one could assert that the Middle East is heading towards a new conflict. Israel's aggression in Gaza and Iran's ongoing utilisation of the Palestinian issue as a tool for revolutionary rhetoric through ineffective attacks and propaganda are propelling the region towards fresh chaos.

It can be anticipated that there will be no winners, and many will suffer losses in this turmoil.