In Congress, Netanyahu's balancing act may come apart

As Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu gets set to address a joint meeting of Congress in Washington this week, he insists that the goal of his speech is to "present the truth" about a genocide that has killed nearly 40,000 Palestinians.

But he should not be expecting a warm welcome.

Thousands of pro-Palestinian protestors have already descended on Washington to hold a "day of rage" over Israel's war on Gaza. According to Ahmad Abuznaid, executive director of the US Campaign for Palestinian Rights and chief organiser, the protests will "make the statement that war criminals like Netanyahu are not welcome" in the country.

The source of protesters' anger is justified: Netanyahu has overseen a nine-month onslaught that's killed scores of Palestinians, exposed US complicity in the genocide, and rendered him guilty of numerous war crimes.

Voters aren't the only ones who are fed up.

Dozens of federal lawmakers are also expected to skip Netanyahu's address. All this is happening as Israel proceeds with a new ground assault on Gaza's Khan Younis.

As the Israeli premier looks to appeal to three competing constituencies – US President Joe Biden's administration, Netanyahu's own far-right coalition allies, and a Donald Trump-dominated Republican party – there's a strong chance that his balancing act may come apart.

The ceasefire question

Expect a clash of priorities between the Biden administration and Netanyahu on Gaza. Though US support for Israel remains ironclad, Biden is under growing pressure to land a ceasefire deal and bolster his legacy his term ends. Netanyahu has resisted ceasefire prospects so far, and his address to Congress won't change much.

After all, the Israeli premier is yet to commit to troop withdrawal from Gaza as part of a first-phase ceasefire agreement backed by Washington.

This is important because the Biden administration and other ceasefire mediators are keen on extending these troop withdrawal guarantees to Hamas and secure movement on hostage release.

But Netanyahu has limited incentive to offer his endorsement. Doing so would risk losing support from far-right government allies back home, who want further aggression and a tougher public stance against Gaza. All signs point to an eventual trade-off.

Moreover, Netanyahu said that his Congress speech is aimed at boosting bipartisan support for Israel's continued war on Gaza. But an increasingly split Congress tells a different story.

Dozens of Democrats will be absent from Netanyahu's speech, leaving mostly Republicans to rally behind him. Netanyahu has himself to blame for this widening disconnect, given repeated clashes with Biden over a mounting death toll in Gaza, resistance to ceasefire, and push for ground offensives.

Without addressing this disconnect, Netanyahu makes it difficult to present a united front on his own war ambitions.

"His (Netanyahu's) policies in Gaza and the West Bank and his refusal to support a two-state solution should be roundly condemned," Independent Senator Bernie Sanders said in a statement ahead of the address.

Domestic stakes

Netanyahu's speech is also less about the US-Israeli relationship, and more about his own fight for political survival back home. He is keen to project his domestic standing amid flagging public support and calls for early elections. But the path to domestic support doesn't run through Congress.

Consider the hostage issue.

About two-thirds of Israelis back a hostage deal over continuing Israel's Gaza onslaught, making it critical for Netanyahu to heed those demands or face more unrest. Pressure is also mounting as some US lawmakers plan a boycott of Netanyahu's speech in support of captives' families, while senior Israeli figures accuse Netanyahu of threatening Israeli and American national security.

"Netanyahu obstructed a war strategy for their (the hostages') release, prevented an essential discussion of National Strategic Goals for the war, and abandoned the abductees in Gaza," senior Israeli figures said in a signed letter to Congressional leadership.

Thus, Netanyahu's desire to prolong the war in Gaza may prove a wider point: that he is the principal obstacle to any hostage deal sought by the US, Israeli public and members of Netanyahu's own base.

Changing realities

From a political standpoint, Netanyahu is losing leverage. Yair Lapid, the head of Israel's largest opposition party, recently signalled that Netanyahu may lose far-right support over a ceasefire deal. Meanwhile, Netanyahu's far-right allies at home insist that a prolonged war was key to defeating Hamas, a rationale he hopes to push as he seeks more US support.

But ground realities are changing fast.

In a landmark agreement this week, Hamas, Fatah and other Palestinian factions agreed to form a future unity government in Gaza, making it clear that Hamas remains undiminished even after months of Israeli bombardment.

The deal, brokered by US rival China, could also put additional pressure on Biden to close a ceasefire deal and prevent Netanyahu from further undermining Washington's credibility as an effective mediator.

Thus understood, Netanyahu's address to Congress is likely to encounter resistance both at home and abroad. It stands to fuel public anger, sow more divisions with the US administration, and expose Netanyahu's glaring shortcomings on hostage release and ceasefire efforts.