In Indonesia, elections test dynasty and democracy dynamics

On Wednesday, Indonesians will head to the polls to vote in a new president.

After 10 years at the helm, current President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo is term-limited and thus unable to run a third time.

This is an election that is dominated by young voters, who comprise about 55 percent of a massive electorate of nearly 205 million people.

Some 66.82 million voters hail from the millennial generation and 46.8 million voters are even younger, from GenZ. Many have never experienced the authoritarian period under President Suharto (1967-1998).

The top three presidential candidates and their running mates are: Anies Baswedan and Muhaimin Iskandar; Prabowo Subianto and Gibran Rakabuming Raka; and Ganjar Pranowo and Mahfud MD.

The campaign season has been marked by many plot twists and political manoeuvrings, especially by Widodo. This has raised the stakes of the election significantly, turning a simple succession question into a dilemma involving dynastic politics and more authoritarian leadership in Indonesia. And with it, the decline and perhaps even fall of Indonesian democracy.

A year ago today, nobody expected Prabowo Subianto to be a frontrunner. Today, however, based on the latest surveys by two credible and highly respected polling institutions, he will win the election in the first round of voting (a second round is held if candidates don't receive more than 50 percent of the vote).

Subianto, a former general during the authoritarian regime of Suharto – and also his former son-in-law - is a twice-failed presidential candidate and the current defence minister. Until recently, he consistently polled in second place, far behind Ganjar Pranowo, the former frontrunner and governor of electorally important Central Java. Pranowo was widely considered to be the president's favoured candidate.

Polling third is Anies Baswedan, Widodo's former education minister who was fired under murky circumstances in 2016, before he ran and won the Governorship of Jakarta, the national capital, beating then-incumbent Basuki "Ahok" Tjahaja Purnama, who was backed by the president.

The election was considered by the Jakarta Post, the leading English-language newspaper in Indonesia as "the dirtiest, most polarising and most divisive the nation had ever seen," as Baswedan's supporters used ethno-religious issues to beat Purnama. This included tactics such as denying religious burials for those who voted for the incumbent.

Baswedan never disavowed those tactics, and thus was seen as at least complicit toward the strategy. This has not surprisingly caused very few people among ethno-religious minorities in Indonesia to support him in this presidential election.

Pranowo began losing his front-runner status in March, as a rift grew between him and Widodo. At that time, Pranowo had not received the blessing of the leader of his party, Megawati Sukarnoputri of the PDI-P, who controlled the party with an iron grip.

She was unwilling to nominate Pranowo as her party's standard bearer as she saw him as too under the control of Widodo. As a result, Pranowo decided to show his loyalty to Sukarnoputri by opposing the president's decision to host the Under 20 FIFA World Cup (U20 Championship) in Indonesia because of Israel's participation, because Indonesia would have to also host Israel.

The straw that broke the camel's back came when Sukarnoputri finally gave Pranowo the coveted nomination. The president was only informed about the decision the morning that it took place, a grave faux pas in a society where maintaining face is highly valued.

Since then, Widodo began slowly shifting his support to Subianto who ironically, was his opponent in the previous two presidential elections. Since then, Pranowo's numbers in the polls have steadily declined, while both Subianto and Baswedan's have improved.

In October, Subianto was seen as completely receiving Widido's backing when he nominated Gibran Rakabuming Raka, Widodo's son, as his vice-presidential candidate.

Raka was the mayor of Solo, a small city in Central Java. His nomination was not without controversy as he is below the minimum age requirements for vice-presidential candidates. In a highly controversial ruling, the Constitutional Court, led by Widodo's brother-in-law, lowered the minimum age requirement, allowing Raka to run.

This ruling, which smacked of nepotism, validated the view of Widodo's opponents that the president was attempting to cling to his power or at least build a political dynasty that would further undermine Indonesian democracy and the rule of law, with the assistance from Subianto, who himself is seen as having an authoritarian streak.

As a result, many consider this election to be a fight for the future of democracy in Indonesia, with many who dislike the current trajectory planning to vote for either Pranowo or Baswedan.

At the same time however, many don't think that this is a fight about democracy. Rather this election remains a referendum of Widido's economic policies, and whether voters want to continue this kind of economic development or chart an alternative path under Baswedan, as Pranowo's economic platform is not that different from Widodo's. It is not surprising that as a result, Baswedan is currently holding second place in polls, while Pranowo is third.

While all three candidates basically have common policies on tackling poverty and eliminating bureaucracy, both Subianto and Pranowo have expressed their commitment to continue Widodo's pet projects. This includes plans to move Indonesia's capital city and a commodity downstreaming project that they believe will add significant added value to the raw materials that Indonesia usually exports.

Baswedan however has stressed the need to reevaluate both the new capital city project and the downstreaming projects, arguing that those projects cost too much and resources spent on those projects could instead be directed at improving the livelihood of regular people.

Though the economy remains a major concern among voters, polls show that the president's approval rating remains stratospherically high at 80 percent, and several latest polls forecast that Subianto will be able to win the election in a single round.

At the same time, there are questions about whether there is enough enthusiasm from Subianto voters to turn out in droves to vote for him next week. While Subianto manages to attract a significant number of young voters, they generally have a much lower turnout rate in comparison to older voters.

Moreover, Baswedan voters are already motivated by their dislike of Widodo, economic concerns and their fears about the future of democracy in Indonesia.

Furthermore, in the last few days, there were attacks on Widodo's credibility and partiality in overseeing the election, and accusations that the election is rigged in favour of Subianto. This could further galvanise the opposition and perhaps dampen Subianto’s voters’ enthusiasm.

Therefore, even though many believe that Subianto will most likely win the election in just a single round, there are still many twists and turns that perhaps will make this election a nail-biter instead of one in which the general simply cruises toward victory.