In picking JD Vance as running mate, is Trump taking too big a risk?

Former United States President Donald Trump has made his choice for vice president: Ohio Senator JD Vance. Trump made the announcement at the start of the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, on Monday.

Trump's announcement is big news. Media outlets throughout the US and the world are covering it extensively. Voters often pay close attention to the selection of a vice-presidential "running mate" as well. But why is the choice of JD Vance so important, one might ask?

Let's start with the vice presidency itself. Vice presidents, or "VPs," have long been at the receiving end of jokes. Former US President Franklin Roosevelt's first VP, John Nance Garner, famously dismissed the office as "not worth a bucket of warm spit." VPs don't fare much better in popular culture - take the TV show "Veep" for example.

That is because vice presidents have very little power under the US Constitution.

VP flex

The Constitution empowers vice presidents to preside over the US Senate and cast tie-breaking votes if needed. They open the electoral votes sent in by states following a presidential election, to certify its winner.

And, in the unlikely event that a president dies, resigns, is removed from office, or becomes incapacitated, the VP takes over as president. All of this may not sound like much.

But consider that the current vice president, Kamala Harris, has cast the most tie-breaking votes in history. Her predecessor, Mike Pence, effectively concluded the 2020 presidential race by certifying Joe Biden's election (against Trump's will) on January 6, 2021.

And if he wins, Trump would be a 78-year-old second-term president who has already been impeached twice. If elected, Vance might be the deciding vote on major legislation and have significant influence over the outcome of the 2028 election.

He also might succeed Trump as president over the next four years, or at least be the frontrunner in 2028, at the end of Trump's term.

Modern vice presidents also have a great deal of informal power, not specified in the Constitution. For the past half-century, starting with the Jimmy Carter-Walter Mondale administration, VPs have typically served as top White House advisors, with unparalleled access to the president.

It is expected that the VP will be the "last person in the room" when a president is weighing important decisions. This does not guarantee vice presidents will get their way, of course. As vice president, Biden for example failed to convince President Barack Obama to withdraw US troops from Afghanistan.

But he always had the President's ear. The same may be true for a Vice President Vance. Particularly given his close connection to the Republican Party's "MAGA" base, Vance may be able to exert considerable influence on Trump's decision-making as he weighs matters of foreign and domestic policy, as well as political strategy.

VPs and elections

But first, Trump has to win the presidency (again). Can Vance help him do so? It is widely assumed that the choice of a running mate has a decisive impact on the presidential race.

But my book with Kyle C. Kopko, Do Running Mates Matter? shows that this is not the case.

Voters rarely make their decision based on how much they like or dislike the VP candidate, or the fact that he or she comes from their state or demographic group.

Running mates matter primarily in terms of their indirect effect on voters. That is to say, people often reevaluate a presidential candidate in light of his or her choice for vice president.

When Barack Obama chose Joe Biden in 2008, for example, voters thought more highly of his judgment and were more likely to support him. Conversely, voters who were skeptical of Sarah Palin's qualifications began to doubt John McCain's judgment and were less likely to vote for him.

How will voters evaluate Trump, in light of his VP choice? Less favorably, I think. JD Vance is poorly qualified for the vice presidency—let alone the presidency, if it came to that.

Yes, he is a US Senator from Ohio, who won a tough primary and general election in 2022. But he had never held political office before that. And he began serving in the Senate only in January of last year.

The 39-year-old is impressive in many ways. He is the author of a best-selling memoir, Hillbilly Elegy, that was later made into a movie. He served in the US Marine Corps and graduated from Yale Law. Even if he hadn't been picked for vice president, Vance would have a bright political future ahead of him.

Questionable choice

But voters are sure to question Vance's preparedness for office, and perhaps hold it against Trump. Why not pick a more qualified running mate—such as Senator Marco Rubio or Governor Doug Burgum—with the experience necessary to help pass Trump's legislative agenda and advise him on foreign affairs?

What does this say about Trump's commitment to achieving major policy goals once in office? Voters may conclude that Trump has other priorities—such as seeking "retribution" against his political opponents—that are better served by his otherwise implausible vice president.

Vance, once a "Never Trump" Republican, has since become the ultimate Trump loyalist. This may be his most important credential. But, while that may appeal to Trump, it is unlikely to appeal to voters outside of the Republican Party base.

Those voters, who will decide the 2024 election, may infer from this choice that Trump's second term will put politics over policy, self-interest over the national interest.

JD Vance is likely to give Donald Trump exactly what he wants in office. But first he has to win the 2024 election.

Having Vance—whose foremost qualification cannot be found on his resume, but in his fealty to Trump—on the ticket probably hurts Trump's cause more than it helps.