Is Iran-Israel war inevitable after Haniyeh assassination?

The assassination of Hamas Political Bureau Chief Ismail Haniyeh on July 31, in Iran’s capital Tehran has escalated the crises in the Middle East to a new level.

The assassination of a political leader and negotiator, orchestrated by the Benjamin Netanyahu government to expand the Gaza conflict to a regional scale and hinder peace efforts, has been condemned by numerous countries and individuals in solidarity with the people of Gaza.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan – one of the most vocal supporters of the Palestinian cause – vehemently condemned the assassination, describing it as a vile attack intended to demoralise and intimidate the Palestinians. The Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs also released a statement denouncing this "heinous" assassination.

As tensions escalate in the region, the US has deployed a naval fleet in the region in anticipation of retaliatory strikes by Iran or its proxy militia groups.

How close, then, is the region to a war? And how will it affect the Middle East already caught up in the horrors of the Gaza war?

Who said what?

Although Iran was quick to pinpoint Israel for the killing of Ismail Haniyeh, there are still many unanswered questions regarding how the assassination was carried out.

In its most recent statement on the matter, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps announced that Haniyeh was killed by a projectile equipped with a seven-kg explosive warhead fired from outside the building.

Iranian media reports have alleged that this projectile was a Spike NLOS multi-purpose missile manufactured by the Israeli company Rafael Advanced Defense Systems.

The assassination of a state host by an Israeli-made missile with a maximum range of 32 km reveals, first and foremost, Iran's security and intelligence weaknesses, signifying a significant loss of prestige for Tehran.

Indeed, Iranian officials declared in their statements following the assassination that the Shia-majority country will definitely retaliate, and its response will be severe.

"The Zionist, cruel, and terrorist regime, by martyring our dear guest in our home, has left us in mourning, but it has also prepared the ground for a severe punishment for itself," Supreme Leader Khamenei stated after the assassination, emphasising that avenging Haniyeh was Iran's duty.

On August 5, Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Nasser Kanaani reiterated the view in a press statement. "Iran has the right to punish the aggressor in accordance with international law. No one can question Iran's legal right to punish the aggressor and deter the usurper Zionist regime," he said, thereby underscoring that Iran will definitely seek revenge.

Iran's reactions were not limited to the Leader of the Revolution and the Foreign Ministry.

Hossein Salami, Commander-in-Chief of the Revolutionary Guard (IRGC), stated on August 5: "The Israelis realise their mistake when they receive a strong response. They always make miscalculations, and this time they have repeated this mistake." He asserted that Iran will definitely retaliate.

Ebrahim Rezaei, the spokesperson for the National Security and Foreign Policy Committee of the Islamic Shura Majlis (Iranian Parliament), echoed other officials by stating that Iran's revenge against Israel will be clear, deterrent, sharp, regretful, and painful.

The rhetoric makes it amply clear that Iran is definitely seeking revenge on Israel and will not leave Haniyeh's blood unavenged.

What are Iran's options?

For an extended period, Turkish officials have been warning that if the Israel's genocidal war on Gaza does not cease, the war will inevitably spread throughout the region.

The current events in the Middle East indicate that this warning is on the verge of becoming a reality, with the possibility of Lebanon's Hezbollah and Yemen's Houthis participating in the strikeback.

The assassination of Ismail Haniyeh has placed Iran at a significant crossroads. On one hand, Iran feels an unavoidable need to respond and believes that failing to retaliate will erode its deterrent capacity.

On the other hand, Iran recognises that Israeli Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu aims to escalate the conflict by dragging the US into the battlefield.

Iran is cautiously trying not to fall into Netanyahu's trap. Consequently, it is seeking a balanced approach to navigate this crisis. But its options are limited.

Iran could conduct an attack similar to unleashing a drone and missile barrage on Israel on April 14. This previous attack involved the use of over 300 unmanned combat aerial vehicles (UCAVs), rockets, and missiles in retaliation to Israel's assault on the Iranian embassy in Damascus.

Despite this extensive use of force, there were no casualties in Israel, which prevented the crisis from escalating into a full-scale war.

If a similar attack were to occur again, and if it did not inflict a significant blow to Israel, it could substantially undermine Iran's deterrence. Consequently, Israel might then be emboldened to target Iranian interests wherever it wishes.

The second option for Iran would be to attempt the assassination of a prominent Israeli official, either within Israeli territory or in a third country.

Given Netanyahu's attempts to involve Iran in a broad conflict, it can be argued that such an action has the potential to escalate into a full-scale war. Consequently, Iran would likely prefer to avoid this option.

As a third option, Iran might plan to retaliate through Shia militia organisations operating from Lebanon, Yemen, Syria, and Iraq rather than using its own territory. In this scenario, it is likely that Israel would declare war on Lebanon, potentially causing the Gaza conflict to spread into Lebanon.

Iran could also consider retaliating against Israel simultaneously from its own territory and from the regions it defines as the "Axis of Resistance" in collaboration with Shia militias in Lebanon, Yemen, Syria, and Iraq.

The Israel-based Alma Research Center suggests that Iran's retaliation could be extensive, involving a coordinated launch of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) from multiple sites in western Iran, with both the Revolutionary Guard and the Iranian military participating.

It is also anticipated that most of these launches will be conducted from open areas near underground facilities using mobile launchers.

Despite calls for de-escalation from around the world, the region is bristling with tension in anticipation of what Iran has promised to be a retaliatory strike at a time and place of its choice.

The scale and intensity will determine how Israel will respond and whether the Middle East will become a full-fledged war zone.