Should Palestinians put their trust in a fragile truce in Gaza?

For weeks, mediators from Qatar, Egypt and the United States have been working to secure a six-week pause in hostilities in Gaza, following fears of escalating violence during the holy month of Ramadan.

According to Washington, Israel has largely agreed to a framework proposal that calls for a ceasefire and release of Israeli captives in exchange for Palestinian prisoners. But Tel Aviv boycotted the final stretch of talks in Cairo after insisting on excessive hostage demands, including a list of all the remaining captives held by Hamas.

Meanwhile, the Biden administration is under intense pressure to deliver a truce by Ramadan. US Vice President Kamala Harris recently rebuked Israel for Gaza’s escalating humanitarian crisis, and held direct talks with Israeli war cabinet member Benny Gantz to underscore the urgency of a hostage deal.

But make no mistake. Even if a temporary ceasefire materialised by March 10, enduring peace in Gaza is far from certain, for many reasons.

First, Israel is expected to support plans that risk settler provocations and aggression during Ramadan. Preparations are underway to significantly beef up Israeli soldiers' presence in Jerusalem and other sensitive areas, according to Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant.

Meanwhile Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has reportedly defied warnings from his own internal security agency by doubling down on plans to restrict Palestinians' access to the Al Aqsa Mosque during Ramadan.

Similar restrictions played a key role in inciting violent confrontations between Israeli extremists, security forces and Palestinian worshippers in the past, and could threaten to upend any temporary truce. Look to May 2021, when Israeli security forces attacked sit-ins and ultimately stormed Al Aqsa, sparking an 11-day clashes that killed at least 230 Palestinians.

Present Israeli actions indicate a similar pattern at work: Israel has already begun blocking entry to Jerusalem for Palestinians, and is reportedly weighing age-based restrictions to bar entrants from the occupied West Bank into the mosque.

Thus, truce efforts struggle to address growing risks of settler aggression and violent confrontations in Al Aqsa, calling into question any long-term effectiveness. Another approach is needed.

"The only way to end/prevent this famine (in Gaza) is an immediate ceasefire," said United Nations’ special rapporteur for the right to food, Michael Fakhri, in a recent post on X. "And the only way to get a ceasefire is to sanction Israel."

As Ramadan begins, there is also a significant chance that Al Aqsa could serve as the principal site of protest for thousands of Palestinians opposed to Israel's Gaza onslaught. Ismail Haniyeh, head of Hamas' political bureau, recently called on Palestinians to march to the mosque on the first day of Ramadan to protest restrictions set by Israel on worshippers.

These demonstrations could hand Israel a pretext to further inflame tensions, given its allegation that Hamas will use Al Aqsa to instigate violence against Israel.

Both Israel and Hamas also hold competing demands regarding a possible truce, limiting the space for long-term common-ground. On the one hand, Hamas continues to demand a complete ceasefire rather than a "temporary" truce. Osama Hamdan, a Lebanon-based Hamas official, recently told Qatar's Al-Araby TV that an end to Israeli aggression against Palestinians is chief to the group's consent for a US-mediated truce framework.

But prospects for ending Israeli aggression remain bleak. Itamar Ben Gvir, Israel’s extremist right-wing national security minister, is stepping up pressure on Netanyahu to tighten access restrictions on Palestinian worshippers at Al Aqsa.

He has reportedly instructed Israeli police to begin enforcing early barriers to entry, all at a time when Israel says it could agree to a temporary truce if Hamas concedes to hostage demands. Thus, heightened suspicion of each other's motives puts additional constraints on any potential ceasefire and its endurance in Gaza.

Additionally, despite international pressure, Israel shows little sign of calling off a possible ground invasion in Rafah. It continues to insist that the move is critical to root out Hamas fighters, and US calls to cancel the offensive have gone unheeded.

Israel has said it may rethink its offensive if Hamas agrees to return hostages in Gaza before the Ramadan deadline. But will Israel agree to return scores of Palestinian prisoners in the space of days as well? Limited clarity makes it difficult to rule out a Rafah offensive, and the unprecedented suffering that comes with it.

According to UNICEF, the city is sheltering 1.3 million Palestinian refugees, including 600,000 children, and constitutes the core of the UN’s current humanitarian aid operation. This is important because one of the central objectives of a six-week truce is to address the "humanitarian catastrophe" in Gaza and support crucial aid access for those in dire need.

Thus, mutual scepticism about a long-term truce, and fears of occupation violence in Ramadan, underscore the limits of any temporary ceasefire in Gaza. Mediators are operating on the assumption that this could restore some calm in Gaza, and alleviate the suffering of besieged Palestinians.

But none of that will come to pass if Israeli aggression continues unabated.