Spring in winter: Can Myanmar rebels topple the junta in current offensive?

It’s winter in Myanmar.

But the Spring Revolution – a popular uprising involving rebel outfits, civil servants and other sections of society – shows no signs of ending in the Buddhist-majority Southeast Asian country, wedged between the two giants, China and India.

For the military regime which grabbed power in a coup in 2021, the biggest challenge comes from the resistance groups called the Three Brotherhood Alliance, which has overrun several military posts and towns near the border with China in the north and elsewhere since October 27.

But by all accounts, the ongoing conflict is different from previous uprisings against the military regime for many reasons. So far, the lightning strike codenamed Operation 1027 has also been unexpected for the junta.

Facing unexpected losses, the junta has been forced to initiate talks with the resistance groups to end the war, with China acting as the mediator.

On December 7, junta chief Min Aung Hlaing made a case for a political solution to the war between the military and the opposition led by the National Unity Government (NUG) or the government-in-exile, formed soon after the democratically-elected government was toppled early in 2021.

The military has suffered severe reverses; many outposts were captured, resulting in the surrender of thousands of soldiers and the confiscation of a colossal quantity of weapons and ammunition.

The offensive in northern Shan State by the resistance groups has spread to other regions in the country. According to an estimate, more than 300 junta bases and 20 towns have been seized so far in three states and two regions since the operation began in northern Shan State.

The military has retaliated with aerial strikes on the civilian populace, forcing more than half-a-million people to flee their homes, according to the UN’s estimates. Many have taken shelter in India and Thailand.

A history of conflicts

Myanmar has been rocked by conflicts almost continuously since it gained independence from colonial rule in 1948.

Many regions in the country inhabited by ethnic minorities such as Kachin, Karen, Shan, and Chin State had raised the banner of revolt with demands ranging from secession to autonomy.

Hopes for normalcy were generated over the past decade when the quasi-civilian governments introduced reforms. But all hopes were dashed when the military staged the coup in 2021 and launched a brutal purge of its opponents.

The takeover, however, galvanised protests on an unprecedented scale across the country, with the demand for restoration of the democratically-elected government and establishment of a federal democratic polity.

A large section of civil servants has been engaged with the civil disobedience movement soon after the coup. Other people have been involved with the revolution in different capacities in non-combat roles, either as sympathisers, collaborators, fund-raisers, etc.

New combat groups called the People’s Defense Forces (PDF) and Local Defense Forces (LDF) were formed, in addition to the older and bigger ethnic rebel outfits – called ethnic armed organisations (EAO) – such as the Kachin Independence Army.

In many recent operations, the PDFs and EAOs have joined hands for the combined assault against the military.

Over the past three months, the military has been compelled to relinquish hold in many regions. This is particularly true of the country’s peripheral areas inhabited by ethnic minorities, where the government’s control and reach had been tenuous even before the military coup owing to a combination of many factors.

Between January and March 2022, this correspondent covertly visited four zones – Tamu, Kalay, Haimual and Thantlang – in Myanmar’s Chin State and Sagaing Region over 21 days to gather information on the resistance movement. These regions are located at varying distances from Myanmar’s border with the Indian states of Mizoram and Manipur.

It was apparent that the resistance squads had gained the upper hand in the war, except in Tamu – a border town that is also a trading post between India and Myanmar – where a bitter contest was on between the two sides.

This is more or less indicative of the situation in Sagaing Region, which has been among the worst affected zones in the war. In sharp contrast was the scenario in the contiguous Chin State, where the regime forces exercised control only in the nine townships and not beyond the rural areas.

Hope and pessimism

Dr Sui Khar, vice chairperson of Chin National Front (CNF) – at the vanguard of the resistance movement in Chin State – feels that the military regime would be toppled within three years. His views about the downfall of the regime were echoed by other resistance leaders in Myanmar, albeit with varying estimates of the period.

Less optimistic than the resistance leaders are the observers and experts on Myanmar, who have different assessments of the trajectory of the Spring Revolution.

Ye Myo Hein, a global fellow at the US-based Wilson Center, writes that the military has been facing simultaneous attacks from resistance groups of “various types” for the “first time in history” in 12 out of 14 states and regions in the country.

However, he believes that the outcome of the war is still unpredictable, and the opposition’s capability to retain the advantage would depend upon whether it can sustain the “coordinated strategy” among the different groups.

Bertil Lintner, journalist and author of several books on Myanmar, has analysed the strengths and weaknesses of the resistance forces vis-a-vis the junta. He says that the situation in Myanmar would not change unless “something more unexpected and decisive than Operation 1027 happens”.

Unceasing turmoil in Myanmar could have an adverse impact on the region in a variety of ways.

The continuation of the war could mean more displacement and more people relocating to neighbouring countries for shelter. The economy, which is already shrinking, may plunge further, triggering greater poverty and unemployment and escalating the humanitarian crisis.

More and more people could become dependent on drug trafficking and other illicit activities as a means of livelihood. Drug consignments and other contraband items from Myanmar have been confiscated in the Indian border states at regular intervals for the past several years.

Myanmar is a bridge between South East and South Asia. It shares borders with China and India, the two most populous countries in the world, which have high stakes in the country.

Myanmar gives China direct access to the Indian Ocean. For India, the country is a crucial component of the Act East Policy aimed at establishing a close linkage with South East Asia.

The disturbed conditions in Myanmar will put brakes on all the ambitious projects the two big neighbours have firmed up in the country.