The tide is turning against Israel amid ICC arrest warrants, US Senate vote

The International Criminal Court (ICC), at long last has just issued international warrants for the arrest of Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, and his former defence minister Yoav Gallant for their war crimes, particularly for blocking humanitarian aid into Gaza and using starvation as a weapon.

This comes at the heels of another significant event where many United States senators voted to withhold permission for the sale of certain weapons and munitions used by Israel in Gaza.

For many years, it has been a cardinal principle of the US Senate and Congress that aid to Israel be a sacred, bipartisan issue, where no countervailing arguments or discussion could even take place. Budgetary concerns, much less foreign policy arguments, were not even considered.

This was particularly true in the case of military assistance and weapons purchases. Senators from both major parties, whether they were traditionally hawks or doves on military aid, automatically supported military sales to Israel.

Since the war on Gaza, however, such military sales have been increasingly questioned, even by the administration itself.

And the recent issuance of warrants for Israeli leaders by the ICC adds urgency to this matter, since 124 countries are now obliged to act on these warrants, making it harder for US legislators to continue to avoid the issue.

Breaking the law

Cognizant of Israel's violations, President Joe Biden's administration on several occasions used technical and sometimes false claims to circumvent Senate approval for certain types or amounts of weapons and ammunition (flouting normal conventions).

According to some Israeli sources, Israel used so much ammunition in the first month of the war because it expected the world or the US to impose a ceasefire within weeks that it actually ran out of ammunition, and required immediate resupply.

As the daily reports of human rights violations in Gaza, including denial of access to food and water, attacks on hospitals and other civilian structures, and even attacks on aid workers and organisations piled up, some began demanding that the US apply its own laws.

These specifically prohibit giving military aid if such weapons are being used for human rights violations or for denying access to humanitarian aid.

In fact, shortly before the November election, the Biden administration sent a formal letter to Israel about the need to allow in US aid, particularly to residents in the northern parts of Gaza which have been under a strict siege since October.

The letter specified steps that needed to be taken, including the number of trucks that should be permitted entry, and threatened to trigger the relevant US legislation if these steps were not taken within 30 days. However, the US administration did not follow through with its threat.

Deceptive tactics

One of the ways Israel has avoided this outcome has been through its strict refusal to allow foreign journalists into Gaza, unless they were embedded within its own military units, and subject to its censorship.

This has been combined with a relentless policy, using AI programs such as "Where’s Daddy," to target and kill local journalists in Gaza. Over 170 journalists have been killed so far, many times more than the number of journalists killed in other conflict zones in recent years, combined.

Silencing these voices has allowed Israeli authorities to deny that they are using starvation as a weapon, and even state that there is no problem on the ground.

In fact many rights organisations have documented Israel's penchant for bombing distribution centres, destroying their contents and killing aid workers.

The evidence presented to the ICC as well as to the International Court of Justice in the case brought by South Africa, which led to a preliminary finding of plausible genocide have added to the worldwide condemnation.

US paying attention

While the US traditionally does not give much weight to such international tribunals, unless they are directed against its own enemies, the clarity and unanimity of these reports are creating a new situation where the Senate for the first time in its history is forced to address the situation.

It is not an accident that this effort is spearheaded by a Jewish senator (Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont). In a recent national poll, 62 percent of American Jews support withholding certain offensive weapons from Israel and using it to pressure Netanyahu for a ceasefire and a hostage deal.

The position of AIPAC notwithstanding, a majority of Americans including Jews support withholding such offensive weapons.

Many other senators, particularly in the Democratic party, are hearing from their constituents that they cannot remain silent or sanction the continuing uncritical supply of offensive weapons and deadly ammunition that has been used to destroy civilian structures and attack noncombatants with such devastating effect.

The weapons that were voted on include 120 mm Tank ammunition, and mortar shells, JDAMs (Joint Direct Attack Munitions, and receivers, 8-ton Cargo trucks, and F-151A aircraft.

While the chances for such a successful vote were minimal without White House support, it is a remarkable event that such a vote was even considered.

In the end 19 senators, about a third of the Democratic caucus, actually voted against the wishes of the White House and AIPAC to prohibit the sale of these weapons to Israel. The measure was struck down, with more than 80 senators voting to continue arming Israel.

And as expected, the US has rejected the ICC's warrants. But since it is not even a party to the ICC, it is under no obligation to respect them. More worryingly, US officials are threatening to sanction the court itself, and its judges and prosecutors in order to show support for Israel's impunity.

Still, most Americans feel uncomfortable moving from the role of silent observers to being directly responsible for an ongoing genocide.

And public sentiment will only continue to shift in support of the Palestinians as time goes on, so that when a US president finally decides to change the country's policy and put pressure on Israel, he or she will find much support among members of Congress, as well as the general public to do so.