The unravelling of US alliances

In the last couple of weeks, the already tense relationship between the US and Turkey has further deteriorated following the decision of a Turkish court to prolong the detention of an American pastor, Andrew Brunson. He was detained over charges of spying, divulging state secrets and for links to FETO and PKK on October 2016.

In reaction to this, the Trump administration first announced sanctions on the Justice and Inferior Affairs ministers of Turkey, which were followed by doubling the tariffs on Turkish steel and aluminium imports. In response, the Turkish government retaliated in kind.

Although the US attitude towards Turkey appears peculiar to Turkey at first glance, it is a reflection of a gradually shifting US foreign policy regarding its alliance politics: a trend that has been marked by the US disregard for the interests and concerns of its allies. This tendency started with former president Barack Obama's administration, but has worsened under the Trump administration

In the second term of Obama in particular, this policy shift became visible as the US began to support the PYD/YPG in northern Syria. 

Since Turkey considers PYD/YPG to be the Syrian branch of the PKK, which is considered a terrorist organisation by Turkey, the EU and the US, the American military support to the PYD/YPG caused major concerns in Turkey. 

Again, during the Obama presidency, US inaction upon the usage of chemical weapons by the Assad regime, although president Obama considered it a red line, caused serious friction with its Western allies, including France and Turkey.

Trump has taken this trend to another level. During the NATO Summit last June, Trump accused his allies of being complacent and urged them to not only spend at least 2 percent of their GDPs but to increase this participation to 4 percent on military spending. He also accused Germany directly, a long-term ally, of being “a captive of Russia.” 

Moreover, he labelled the NAFTA as “the worst trade deal” in US history, which alienated both Mexico and Canada. 

Although a new deal has been reached between the US and Mexico, discarding NAFTA, President Trump tweeted that Canada might remain outside this new deal.

Losing credibility and reliability

There will be profound ramifications for the way the US is treating its allies. 

States that feel their interests are being discarded will undoubtedly seek alternative policies including new alliances. This might pave the way for more instability and conflict in the near future.  

The continuity of an alliance is largely contingent upon the trust measures and confidence mechanisms established between the partners. Breaking promises and showing apathy towards the concerns of one’s allies damage the credibility and stability of the partnership. 

Additionally, an alliance exists as long as it serves to benefit the partners; otherwise, it ceases to exist. 

In this regard, the US under the Trump administration suffers from a remarkable loss of credibility internationally as a result of controversial policies and attitudes such as the withdrawal from international agreements like TPP, the Paris Climate Agreement, the imposition of tariffs on its allies and harshly criticising them in public. 

These policies have negatively affected America's image overseas. For instance, a recent survey demonstrated that the German perception of the US has taken a nosedive during the Trump administration, a trend that is on the rise across Europe. 

A similar pattern can be observable globally.

Implications on the regional level

Trump’s attitudes towards the US' long-time allies will undoubtedly have repercussions on the regional level. Keeping in mind that the US has meticulously established and managed the alliance system particularly in Europe and Asia to keep the world out of great power conflicts and wars; the implications of the shifting US foreign policy are bleak. 

The US security and economic alliances with Japan and South Korea have been the lynchpin of its East Asia strategy. These alliances are considered as assurances to prevent the eruption of possible inter-state wars between regional powers. They have also long served as deterrents against potential Chinese attempts to tilt the regional balance of power in its favour.

Trump’s decision to suspend joint military drills that were conducted by the US and South Korea for decades after his historic meeting with the North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, has worried the South Koreans. 

Trump pointed to the cost of the military practices as the reason for the suspension, disregarding its symbolic and actual meanings regarding being a powerful deterrent against the North’s aggression; it also sends mixed signals about the extent of US commitment to the security of the South. That coupled with Trump’s statement that he is looking for options to reduce US military presence in South Korea has led people in South Korea to view Trump’s moves with scepticism and resentment. 

These developments have also raised concerns from the Japanese side as its security is hugely dependent on the US military presence in the region. Additionally, the Trump administration’s decision to withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership and adding Japan to the list of sanctioned countries, thus shaking the foundations of the long-lasting alliance, led to increasing alienation from the Japanese government. 

These reckless policies may lead to an arms race and increased aggression in East Asia.

The other implication at the regional level would be that allied countries that are left in limbo by the US would search for new partnerships to replace the existing arrangements. This is the case in Africa. As the Trump administration has cut off its development aid and reduced its military assistance, African countries have started to consider other options. 

China, who is more than willing to fill the void left by the US, has appeared as a viable partner in terms of providing a development model and assistance as well as security support. 

Similarly, the US' decades-long strategic partnership with Turkey has constituted one of the building blocks of the American grand strategy in the Middle East. Turkey, being a NATO member and an active contributor to the counterterror operations and stabilisation efforts in Afghanistan and Iraq, has played an important role in military missions aiming to restore peace and stability in the region. 

Turkey is also home to the Incirlik Air Base, which has been actively used by the US Air Force since the Cold War; during the 1991 Gulf War, the Iraq War, Afghanistan operations and more recently in the fight against Daesh. Turkey’s contribution also includes the missions in Somalia and the Mediterranean.

However, this partnership is going through a turbulent period due to the latest crises that jeopardise the future of the relationship as well as the stability of the region. 

Losing a key partner in the fight against Daesh and other terrorist organisations will weaken these efforts and might cause their resurgence. 

Additionally, the US alienation of Turkey and the US disregard towards its security concerns might force Turkey to look for new reliable and credible partners. Turkey’s increasingly close cooperation with Iran and Russia particularly in Syria, which culminated in the Astana Peace Talks, can be looked at through this lens. 

Implications on the global level

By moving away from the values and norms that constitute the very basis of the current international liberal order, the US creates a legitimacy crisis and endangers values such as democracy, good governance and human rights. 

Since the US presents itself as the defender of these values, its controversial actions undermine both its global leadership and these values. 

The Trump administration’s recent unilateral actions such as moving the US embassy to Jerusalem and recognising the city as the capital of Israel caused resentment and disapproval by the majority of the international community. 

Additionally, the US rescission of the Iranian Nuclear Deal, which has been negotiated multilaterally and accepted unanimously by the United Nations Security Council, put the international order in crisis. As German Chancellor Angela Merkel has mentioned, this move erodes trust in the international order.

The problems that the world faces today, such as the ongoing worldwide humanitarian crises, climate change and proliferation of terrorist networks, require an enduring and multilateral commitment. 

By acting otherwise, the US is increasing the risks the world faces and jeopardises the chances of overcoming them.