To avoid regional fallout, India must extradite Sheikh Hasina to Bangladesh

As pressure mounts on India to hand back former Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, there remains little justification for New Delhi to continue to refuse Dhaka's request.

Last summer, Sheikh Hasina used state machinery to kill at least 1,000 Bangladeshi citizens who were protesting for reforms and restructuring of the government's quota system. The PM was soon ousted and fled to India in August.

At home, she stands accused of multiple crimes against humanity, including murder, during her 15-year tenure in office. She denies all charges. Last month, the Bangladeshi government sent a formal request to India for her extradition, as thousands protested in the streets for her prosecution.

And last week, Bangladesh appeared to escalate efforts to get Hasina back by revoking her passport. India for its part has not formally commented on the move.

Additionally, she is now being accused of overseeing the 2009 BDR or Bangladesh Rifles revolt, to consolidate her own power.

The ongoing probe by Bangladesh's National Independent Investigation Commission, formed to reinvestigate the 2009 massacre due to destruction of evidence during Hasina's regime, points at Hasina's involvement in the carnage.

With evidence gathering still ongoing, the NIC is pointing at Hasina's role in orchestrating the conspiracy which left more than 70 people dead, the majority of them Bangladeshi army officers.

With the Commission now demanding her extradition from India, New Delhi's refusal would be a tactical and strategic blunder that goes beyond denying the severity of the charges or the long list of crimes that Hasina committed against the Bangladeshi people.

Military mutiny

The 2009 BDR massacre is an example of military mutiny in the Bangladeshi army in which the Bangladeshi rifle forces, a paramilitary organisation tasked with guarding the country's borders, revolted against senior officers. The uprising resulted in thousands of soldiers pledging allegiance to the mutineers, seizing weapons and killing army officers and civilians.

To ascertain the cause of this uprising, the Hasina administration launched an investigation into the massacre and claimed that the BDR revolted due to lack of better working conditions, poor pay scales and being treated as second class citizens in comparison to army personnel.

However, to date the families of the victims of the 2009 massacre remain unconvinced and have campaigned for the case to be reinvestigated. This culminated in the National Independent Commission's reinvestigation and decision to call for Hasina's extradition from India to Bangladesh after an exchange meeting with the victims.

India's decision to continue harbouring Hasina however, is a major impediment for swift accountability. It also carries consequences for New Delhi.

Diplomatic dilemma

India has long sought to maintain its influence in Bangladesh, and Hasina for years has been a key ally for New Delhi against rivals China and Pakistan. With her ousting, India faces an uphill task of regaining influence with the new, anti-Hasina Bangladesh government while keeping the former PM on its shores.

In order for Prime Minister Narendra Modi's regime to engage with the interim government in Dhaka, promoting confidence-building measures is critical, said Jon Danilowicz, a retired US diplomat who has served in Bangladesh.

Speaking to TRT World, he said "The latest legal request from Bangladeshi authorities underscores India's diplomatic dilemma after having reflexively granted Sheikh Hasina asylum. Whether it involves the BDR Massacre, alleged financial crimes, or responsibility for deaths and disappearances, it is clear that Bangladesh's interim government and public want to see Hasina held accountable for crimes committed during her tenure.

Sooner or later, New Delhi will need to accept that relations with post-revolution Bangladesh will not improve as long as Hasina enjoys sanctuary in India."

This includes honouring the bilateral extradition treaty between the two countries which Bangladesh signed in 2013 and further amended in 2016 to hasten the exchange of fugitives.

As per the treaty, both sides have to extradite individuals found guilty of crimes such as financial offences or attempts to commit, abet, incite or participate in extraditable offences.

This clearly applies to Hasina, as she is facing allegations of manslaughter, extrajudicial killings and in the 2009 BDR case, creating discord in the country's army by allowing the paramilitary to kill, massacre and maim civilians and soldiers.

Furthermore, as per an amendment to Article 10 (3) of the extradition treaty, figures such as Hasina can be arrested if a simple competent court in Bangladesh issues a warrant against them regardless of evidence.

As a result, India cannot retain influence in Bangladesh if officials continue to host Hasina. The cost would be alienating a former ally in an increasingly hostile neighborhood for New Delhi, which faces an assertive China and Pakistan at its doorstep.

International isolation

India also risks becoming increasingly isolated on the international stage for continuing to harbour a figure which is accused of crimes against humanity as elaborated by the Chief Prosecutor of Bangladesh's International Crimes Tribunal, who cites the 2024 crackdown as the basis to prosecute Hasina in Bangladesh.

Dhaka has already approached the International Criminal Court for Hasina's trial and filed a case which is still pending before the court.

Some experts warn that Bangladesh could go even further to pursue justice. Dr. Akalvya Anand, assistant professor at the Faculty of Law at the University of New Delhi, told TRT World that "if India denies its responsibilities, Bangladesh may take the matter to the International Court of Justice (ICJ). In this case, the rules are clear, and India will have limited leeway. It will be required to either comply or conduct a trial, as decided in previous ICJ cases."

As a result, the political, diplomatic, multilateral and bilateral costs are way too high for New Delhi to keep Hasina in India.

With the former Prime Minister of Bangladesh now being implicated in yet another case of criminality and massacres in her own country, the best course of action for India is to hand her over.