US arms to Baltics: An aggressive move against Russia

Ideally, in times of crisis, efforts at de-escalation should replace alarmist narratives.

That is precisely what is needed in the Baltic states of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia as the US continues to arm them, provoking Russia from its western sphere of influence.

The US has urged NATO to increase its support to Baltic member states through speedy reinforcements as mentioned at the recently concluded NATO Washington Summit.

However, the threat perception is misguided. America's justification for propping up the region as a potential front should the Ukraine war spread is only plausible if there is an impending military attack from Russia.

That is not the case.

Souring relations

Tensions have escalated between the Baltic states and the Kremlin since the start of the Ukraine war due to the former's unequivocal support for Ukraine.

Moscow has also made allegations that Soviet-era memorials were removed in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania amid an intensification of the Ukraine war.

Unequivocal support from the Baltic countries – which are also NATO member states – for the Zelenskyy government in Kiev has irked the Putin administration and prompted his regime to undertake retaliatory measures, including placing senior officials such as Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas on a "wanted list" over the removal of Soviet-era memorials. The souring ties are concomitant with the US Air Force's B-52 bombers flying over Baltic airspace to tackle possible airspace violations by Russian fighter jets. This includes flying close to the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad, which is sandwiched between Poland and Lithuania. However, the presence of American aerial combat operations has not resulted in direct confrontation by Moscow. Instead, Russia has opted for hybrid tactics such as jamming GPS signals of commercial flights and satellite signals, as was the case with Russia jamming signals of a Royal Air Force aircraft in March 2024.

Russia's decision to opt for hybrid warfare instead of military confrontation with the United States and its allies is based on the fact that a direct approach would be unwinnable and only result in greater international isolation.

Misguided threat perceptions

The latest violations of Lithuanian airspace by a Russian civilian aircraft headed to the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad, a city sandwiched between Lithuania and Poland, has once again raised alarm bells in Vilnius.

As a consequence of the Ukraine war, Russian flights are banned from crossing through EU airspace, yet Moscow has ignored these restrictions.

It is important to note that the EU ban differs from a proposed NATO ban, which the military alliance has rejected because a full-scale direct confrontation is possible.

Hence, there is no justification for America to increase its footprint in the Baltics over airspace violations.

Also, Russia's reported plans to declare part of the Baltic Sea as internal maritime waters have alarmed the Baltic states, which have called for securing their shores with defence shields.

However, internal divisions and fissures in the EU exist on how to tackle the Russian threat. Member states such as Germany are adopting a dualistic and hypocritical approach.

On one hand, Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock called out Russia for carrying out hybrid attacks on Baltic states. But Berlin has also refused to supply Kiev with cruise missiles and termed the Nord Stream 2 pipeline as a private economic project rather than a Russian one after Moscow recognised two breakaway regions in Ukraine. This is evidence of a duplicitous approach towards Russia which will not change in the Balkans.

Countries such as Estonia will continue to provide significant military aid to Ukraine, while Latvia will express support, as it did when French President Emmanuel Macron adopted a hawkish stance towards Moscow in March 2024.

However, a full-scale Russian attack which justifies increased American troop presence in the Baltics remains questionable.

And here's why:

Previous troop presence didn't result in Russian attack

Firstly, there is already a significant presence of American, French and German troops in the Baltics, such as at training bases in Estonia. Lithuania has also been hosting a German-led 1500-strong multinational battalion since 2017.

The presence of these troops has not resulted in Russia attacking the Baltics. And neither would boosting America's military presence in the region change Russia's tactics of violating airspace or engaging in cyber-attacks. The cost of direct confrontation is way too high.

Secondly, Lithuania's call for having a US military battalion stationed indefinitely has so far only coincided with skirmishes in Baltic airspace, cyber-attacks, diplomatic castigation, and jamming of satellite signals, which is the standard modus operandi of the Putin regime.

While there is no indication that Russia seeks to attack the Baltics, an increase in American troop presence could antagonize Moscow and heighten tensions in the region.

Russia bogged down in Ukraine

Thirdly, Russia is currently bogged down by its war in Ukraine, which has been acknowledged by Estonia's own annual state report of security threats of 2024.

While the findings indicate that Russia seeks to double the number of troops stationed along its borders, it also renders the possibility of a direct military attack on the West from Putin as "unlikely."

Russia is pressed by logistical problems in Ukraine and is sensitive to greater international isolation, which could further damage its economy. These factors are part of Putin's strategic calculus, which the United States has not accounted for while justifying strengthening of defenses in the region.

Based on the factors mentioned above, it is clear that the Ukraine conflict will be kept within Ukraine as Russia opts for hybrid warfare to tackle seemingly ‘hostile' neighboring states such as Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.

For the US, there is no justification to boost its military presence in the Baltics.