US on edge: Could political violence mar the 2024 presidential election?

This week's 2024 United States presidential election is poised to be one of the most contentious in recent history, positioning two ideologically opposed candidates against each other.

Both former president Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris represent starkly different visions for the nation. Trump's populist, nationalist rhetoric energises a loyal base while provoking sharp criticism from opponents, and Harris's progressive approach rallies liberal support, but her inconsistency toward global issues draws backlash.

Their contrasting styles and ideologies have heightened political divides, igniting passionate reactions across the political spectrum.

The deeply polarised environment has raised concerns that the 2024 election could spark political violence, with extremist groups and partisan factions potentially exploiting these divisions.

Both far-right and far-left factions have displayed a willingness to use violence in pursuit of their agendas, feeding off distrust in government institutions, media, and law enforcement.

Social media platforms and certain news outlets have exacerbated this environment, amplifying misinformation and conspiracy theories that fuel public suspicion and radicalisation.

Shadow of the past

The shadow of the last election looms over this year's. On January 6, 2020, Trump supporters, motivated by the belief that the election had been stolen, stormed the US Capitol as the vote to ratify President Joe Biden was about to take place.

As the Capitol building was vandalised, people were injured and some died. The riot remains a vivid reminder of the risks when ideological divides escalate to violence. Since that event, politically motivated attacks have surged, targeting officials, journalists, and ordinary citizens.

Social justice protests by certain far-left factions also devolved into destructive violence in 2020, with cities such as Portland in Oregon seeing clashes with law enforcement, vandalism, and arson.

Although originally sparked by protests against police violence, the actions escalated as some groups expressed broader anti-government and anti-capitalist sentiments.

The spectre of political violence surrounding the 2024 US presidential election is underscored by recent assassination attempts on one of the candidates, Donald Trump. These incidents reflect the intensity of political animosity and the alarming willingness of some to resort to extreme measures.

The attempts on Trump's life serve as a troubling indicator of the heightened risks faced by public figures in this polarised climate and foreshadow the potential for further violence as the election progresses.

Three potential flashpoints

The atmosphere of distrust may lead to significant risks on Election Day, particularly in polarised regions. With rising scepticism about election integrity, some groups may attempt to "monitor" polling stations, resulting in confrontations or intimidation.

Such incidents could undermine public confidence in the voting process, with localised conflicts at polling stations potentially escalating to wider post-election tensions.

In recent election cycles, partisan groups, particularly in swing states and highly polarised regions, have organised volunteer poll watchers. This presence can sometimes escalate if groups decide to show up armed or with a confrontational stance under the claim of "protecting the vote."

In states with permissive open-carry laws, armed individuals at polling stations could create an intimidating atmosphere for voters, particularly in communities with a history of tension.

Such incidents were reported in the 2020 election, especially in states like Pennsylvania and Michigan, where concerns over potential voter intimidation were heightened.

Another particularly sensitive point in the electoral process is the certification of votes by Congress. If either candidate disputes the legitimacy of the count, groups on both sides could mobilise protests in Washington, DC, and state capitals, heightening the risk of violent confrontations.

The January 6 Capitol Hill riot demonstrated the potential for such events to spiral into chaos when political figures call for action.

Inauguration Day on January 20, 2025 could also become a flashpoint if substantial segments of the public refuse to recognise the incoming president as legitimate. Continued challenges to the election outcome by either Trump or Harris, or their allies, could galvanise followers to disrupt the proceedings.

For extremist groups, the inauguration represents a high-visibility opportunity to mobilise, with the risk of violent confrontation magnified by media attention.

Heightening divide

On social media, algorithms designed to prioritise engagement inadvertently amplify extreme content, radicalising users and fostering an atmosphere ripe for exploitation.

Scepticism towards government institutions, law enforcement, and the media has deepened, weakening the democratic process and emboldening those inclined toward violence.

Claims of election interference and voter fraud, often lacking credible evidence, are already permeating public discourse, undermining faith in the electoral system and creating a pretext for violence from those who believe they are defending democracy.

Social media misinformation could further amplify claims of electoral theft, motivating individuals or groups to act violently in protest. In the event of a close or contested election, prolonged delays and legal battles could become major flashpoints for unrest.

If both Trump and Harris contest results in swing states, uncertainty could frustrate voters and fuel suspicions of manipulation, as seen in 2020.

Foreign states such as Russia and China have also been implicated in influence operations aimed at fuelling discord within the US.

By spreading divisive narratives on social media, these actors exploit American fault lines on issues such as racial inequality, gun control, immigration, and abortion, aiming to distract the US government.

Russia has been linked to social media campaigns that use bots and troll farms to spread divisive narratives on hot-button issues, including racial inequality, vaccine scepticism, and political polarisation.

In preparation for the 2024 election, US intelligence agencies have flagged an increase in online Russian-origin accounts pushing claims about electoral fraud, aiming to erode confidence in the US democratic system.

This tactic mirrors Russia's activities during the 2016 and 2020 elections, where the Internet Research Agency was found to target Americans with inflammatory posts designed to incite division.

Political violence erodes public trust in democracy and deters political participation. Intimidation at polling stations, public gatherings, or during post-election certification processes can discourage citizens from voting or protesting, impacting turnout and potentially skewing election outcomes.

When violence becomes a viable political tool, the democratic principle of peaceful disagreement weakens, posing a long-term threat to American democracy by eroding the effectiveness of peaceful conflict resolution mechanisms.

As the 2024 election unfolds, safeguarding the electoral process and maintaining public confidence in democratic institutions will be crucial to upholding the nation's democratic values.