US's failure to rein in Israel's bombing of Gaza places Middle East at risk

Sunday marked 100 days since Hamas’s surprise attack on Israel, resulting in the worst loss of Jewish lives since the Holocaust. Since then, the nation’s Prime Minister and his war cabinet have rained hell on Gaza and its occupants.

For months, the US has continued to exercise unconditional support of its ally, despite a historic accusation of genocide brought by South Africa—backed by myriad Global South nations —against Israel at the International Court of Justice (ICJ).

Meanwhile, in the Red Sea, the Houthis of Yemen are disrupting commercial shipping, prompting the US to respond with strikes of its own. Additionally, tensions on the Lebanese-Israeli border are mounting by the day.

Amidst widespread fears of a regional war, it is clear we are witnessing a tectonic shift in the region, with worldwide ripple effects. Israel’s assault on Gaza has smashed the veneer of Western leadership, while the ICJ case has elevated the role of the Global South.

In Gaza, the statistics are staggering: 2 million people displaced and nearly 24,000 dead, including 10,000 children. Over 65,000 injured; 60 percent of buildings damaged or destroyed; 21 out of 36 hospitals out of operation; over 1,000 healthcare workers killed or injured, at least 82 journalists killed; and a quarter of the population on the brink of starvation.

Yet, despite the systematic nature of the destruction, the US, Israel’s main backer, refuses to change its policy of unwavering and unconditional support. The world superpower, rather than courageously upholding the principles underpinning the international order it claims to lead, has been rendered impotent: its allies are unwilling to heed its requests, as its enemies sneer at its threats. One must ask, where can things go from here?

If one were to compile a report card listing US objectives in the region, Washington would surely receive a failing mark.

It has been unable to mitigate the excesses of the Israeli assault on Gaza, humanitarian aid going into the besieged area is a fraction of what is needed for people to survive, Houthi attacks in the Red Sea show no signs of abating, Iran felt empowered enough to retake one of its ships that had been previously seized by the US, and American efforts to attain normalisation between Israel and Saudi Arabia have been stopped dead in their tracks. It is difficult to think of a lower point in US credibility and effectiveness in the region in recent history.

As President Joe Biden and his team fumble in the Middle East, trouble appears to be brewing at home. The president previously enjoyed widespread support in the Arab and Muslim American communities.

But he now finds himself at risk of losing important swing states like Michigan as a large portion of Arab and Muslim Americans – as well as allies - reject what they describe as US support for genocide in Gaza.

Should the threat of these voters to stay at home on election day materialise, the world may have to contend with a second Donald Trump presidency and all its consequences.

Another Trump presidency would likely see even more levels of impunity for Israel in the region, as well as a strong push to provide financial and economic incentives to Arab countries to normalise relations with Israel at the expense of a tangible Israeli commitment to Palestinian statehood.

US relations with Iran would become even more contentious, leading to potentially increased shows of force by Iranian proxies against US personnel and interests. In short, an already dire regional outlook would become ever bleaker.

It is difficult to imagine what might compel the Biden administration to suddenly shift gears. But shift gear it must, if there is to be any hope of pulling the region back from the brink.

It is long past time for Biden to consider conditioning military assistance and arms resupply to Israel on a serious change in its tactics in Gaza, most immediately halting its attacks on civilians and allowing life-saving food and medical assistance into the area.

As it ramps up its targeted response to the Houthis in the Red Sea, the US must also provide an off-ramp that would allow for de-escalation as the US and its allies restore safe passage for commercial ships in the area.

Finally, the US must credibly warn Israel that America will not be pulled into a war between the Jewish state and Hezbollah. Finally, to restore its credibility on the international stage, the US must support the ICJ’s decisions should provisional measures be ruled, thereby upholding international law.

To be clear, it is extremely unlikely the US will take any of the steps outlined above. As things currently stand, expecting the US to act with the integrity and responsibility that its status demands is merely wishful thinking, a wistful lament at a future that could have been.

The more likely scenario is that the situation described above will continue to deteriorate. More Palestinian and Israeli lives will be lost, the risk of a miscalculation that will set the region ablaze will rise, and Israel will continue to defy international law, inexplicably aided by the very countries that claim to champion human rights and the responsibility to protect.

Those who wish to grasp for a sliver of hope will have to set their sights on the long term: the awakening of a global movement championing peace and justice; a surge of responsibility and action from members of the Global South; and perhaps even faith in the prospect that the horrors of the last 100 days will one day be remembered as the dark beginning of a long road toward a more just world, one where Israelis and Palestinians can live side by side in security, dignity and freedom.