What will it take to get Biden to budge on Israel?

Pressure on the United States to end the war in Gaza is growing. For the first time, a majority of Americans (55 percent) disapprove of Israel's military actions in the Palestinian enclave, according to a new Gallup poll released this week.

The poll also found that only 18 percent of Democrats approve of what Israel is doing. Among Republicans, support was 64 percent, down from 71 percent in November 2023.

Muslim rights organisations in the United States such as the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) have seized on this data and other information to call on US President Joe Biden's administration to stop aiding Israel as it carries out ethnic cleansing and forced starvation.

According to CAIR, these numbers warrant course correction. CAIR Deputy Director Edward Ahmed Mitchell stated that the results should serve as a wake-up call for the Biden administration to listen to the American people and end US financial and military support to Israel.

The question is, will the Biden administration heed this call?

Currently, this doesn't look likely.

International pressure

Take the recently-held United Nations Security Council vote demanding a ceasefire in Gaza as an example. The resolution was approved by 14 countries, while the United States abstained. This is a departure from the US's usual strategy of blocking UN resolutions aimed at putting pressure on Israel.

But the White House stated that the final resolution was "non-binding," did not have the "language" that it considers critical for a ceasefire, and did not indicate a shift in US policy towards Israel.

Still, the American stance was considered a "failure" by Israel and an evident retreat from its previous position. That said, the Biden administration has made it clear that it will not renounce its unequivocal support of Israel despite domestic pressure and frustration with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's regime over impending famine and wide-scale civilian casualties in Gaza.

Also this week, UN special rapporteur on the human rights situation in the occupied Palestinian territories Francesca Albanese presented her Israel-Gaza genocide report to UN member states in Geneva.

Her conclusion was that there are reasonable grounds to believe that a threshold indicating the commission of the crime of genocide against Palestinians as a group in Gaza has been met. Expectedly, her work was denounced by Israel as an "obscene inversion of reality."

It was also rejected by the US, with State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller even accusing her of anti-Semitism. Her findings, however, were warmly received by dozens of diplomats, primarily from Latin America and the Muslim world who called for sanctions on Israel and an arms embargo.

Problems at home

Back on the domestic front, Biden has failed to heed previous wake-up calls over the past few months.

In February, the Listen to Michigan campaign urged Democratic voters in the state to vote "uncommitted" on the presidential primary ballot, to express displeasure for Biden's unwavering support of Israel.

The effort has already been duplicated in several other states, with varying measures of success. Next month, the Listen to Wisconsin and the Uncommitted National Movement will push the same strategy in the Wisconsin primary, with a $250,000 budget.

Meanwhile, Biden's approval rating for his handling of Middle East affairs now stands at just 27 percent, while his overall job approval rating stands at 40 percent. This clearly shows the disconnect between the administration's policy-making on Israel and the sentiment of the American people, potentially jeopardising his reelection chances.

Despite the disapproval of civil society and human rights organisations, as well as numerous domestic protests and campaigns against granting military aid to Israel, the Biden administration has not flinched from its policy of unequivocally backing the ally.

Its support also remains despite disagreements with the Netanyahu regime. The United States has not once stated that Israel has violated international law since October, which some rights groups say invites global mockery of the US and spurs disdain from the rest of the world.

In February, the Biden administration issued a memorandum titled NSM-20, requiring credible and documented assurances from recipient countries of American military aid that arms would not be used to commit human rights violations.

On Israel however, US State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller recently stated that Israel is indeed abiding by international humanitarian law, with Washington accepting assurances from the Netanyahu government that weapons transfers will not be used for rights violations.

The US House of Representatives is also working on an additional $14 billion package in aid to Israel for this year which some see as an attempt by Biden to make military assistance to Israel untouchable despite rhetorical criticism.

By not paying heed to opinion polls, public sentiment and legitimate demands from human rights organisations, the Biden administration is setting a dangerous precedent of ignoring genocide, while continuing to champion human rights and democracy both within the United States and abroad.

This disconnect will not only have implications for Biden's reelection chances, but provides a blanket approval for Israel to continue its genocidal machinery to the detriment of the Palestinian population.