Climate change is coming for your coffee

Coffee, avocados and cashews are three crops that will be affected by climate change, scientists have announced. The three crops, the authors of a recent study note, are of “high socio-economic importance” in many tropical smallholder farming systems around the globe.

Looking at data and predicting the weather in 2050, less than three decades from now, scientists at the Institute of Natural Resource Sciences at Zurich University of Applied Sciences write that these plantation crops with a long lifespan will need long-term planning with their cultivation.

Led by Roman Grueter, the Swiss scientists note that the evaluation of climate change impacts on the crops were modelled on the current and future suitability of Coffea Arabica (coffee plant), cashew and avocado on a global scale “based on climatic and soil requirements of the three crops.”

While studies on coffee have been done before, this is the first time climate change effects on avocado and cashew crops are being assessed globally.

The researchers modelled the future (2050) using climate outputs of 14 global circulation models based on three emission scenarios. They checked how climate change affects the crops globally and in the main producing countries.

They found that more than land and soil parameters – primarily low soil pH, unfavourable soil texture and steep slopes – the three crops were rather affected by climatic factors. The climatic factors were mainly “long dry seasons, mean temperatures (high and low), low minimum temperatures and annual precipitation (high and low).”

The researchers write that they found shifts in suitable growing regions “due to climate change with both regions of future expansion and contraction for all crops investigated.”

According to the scientists, coffee is the “most vulnerable” crop among the three they looked at, “with negative climate impacts dominating in all main producing regions.” Expected revenue from coffee is about $460 billion in 2022, so this is sobering news for coffee growers.

With millions of coffee drinkers around the world – around 166.63 million 60 kilogram bags of coffee were consumed worldwide in 2020/2021 –  the possibility that the price of coffee might increase over the coming years is not a welcome development.

Writing for Fast Company, biotechnologist Denis J Murphy notes that coffee growers will need to shift cultivation of specific crops to different regions “where climate impacts will be more benign.” He warns, however, that despite any measures that are adopted, tropical crops will become “more scarce and hence, more expensive” in the future. He predicts that coffee will go from being a daily drink to something that is enjoyed as a treat on special occasions.

As for avocados and cashews, the researchers of the Plos One study found that areas suitable for cultivation are “expected to expand globally” but with a caveat: in most main producing countries, “the areas of highest suitability may decrease.”

According to the study, most major producing regions of the three crops, coffee, avocado and cashew, will need to adapt to climate change. There is a plus side to climate change, which is that at high latitudes and high altitudes, they “may all profit from increasing minimum temperatures.”

Grueter, the environmental systems scientist heading the study, tells Inside Science that planning for how to adapt should start now. Writer James Gaines notes; “For instance, countries could try to help smallholder farmers by breeding or planting new varieties adapted for higher temperatures or drought.”

"I think it's important to invest not only in modelling, but also now really invest in adaptation strategies," says Grueter. Grueter adds that he believes countries should involve the affected farmers in the decision-making process. "Take the farmers on board from the beginning," he suggests.