Massive asteroid has 1 in 43 chance of colliding with Earth

For asteroid 2024 YR, the explosion from an airburst would equal around eight megatons of TNT — more than 500 times the power of the Hiroshima bomb.

While the asteroid is much smaller than the one scientists say wiped out the dinosaurs, 2024 YR still would pack a powerful punch [Image via https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/]
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While the asteroid is much smaller than the one scientists say wiped out the dinosaurs, 2024 YR still would pack a powerful punch [Image via https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/]

The odds of a massive asteroid now hurtling through space hitting Earth are small, but they went up this week, reports said.

The so-called 2024 YR asteroid, about the size of a football field, was given a 2.3 percent or 1 in 43 chance of hitting Earth in 2032 by NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies.

Barely a week ago, the European Space Agency gave it a 1.3 percent chance of hitting the planet on December 22 that year, when it will make its closest approach to the Earth.

While the asteroid is much smaller than the one scientists say wiped out the dinosaurs, 2024 YR still would pack a powerful punch.

If it were to enter Earth's atmosphere and explode as an airburst, the energy released would be equivalent to roughly eight megatons of TNT — more than 500 times the power of the Hiroshima bomb.

"Asteroid impacts have taken place many times in Earth's history," the BBC said.

"Our early human ancestors may have experienced some of these planet-shifting events before with potential impacts on human evolution and even our own genetic makeup," Dr. Lan Dai told the BBC.

"It is rare to have an asteroid with a non-zero probability of hitting Earth," said Heidi Hammel, Vice President of the Planetary Society's board of directors.

"At this point," said Hammel, "astronomers have measured the object’s orbit, and further observations will refine that orbit to give us a more precise understanding of its potential danger.

"We have a rough estimate of its size based on its brightness, and from variations in the brightness, we can infer that it has an elongated shape. Measurements at visible wavelengths suggest it may be a stony asteroid (S type)."

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