Contradictions in Russian and US responses to Turkey’s Afrin operation

The fight against Daesh in Syria is mostly over, since it has been defeated in the urban areas of Syria. Weeks later, Russia came up with a plan: All the parties would gather in Sochi to talk about the future of Syria, including the YPG. Turkey harshly opposed this. 

And then the US plans on permanent support for the YPG were revealed, despite their promises that co-operation with the YPG would be only until Daesh was defeated. On January 13, the US-led coalition declared that they were creating a new "border defence force", again including the YPG. 

The same day, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan gave the signal for the country’s plans to start an operation in YPG-held Afrin, Syria’s border town with Turkey at its north. 

“We will do it all on our own. If the terrorists in Afrin don’t surrender we will tear them down,” he said during a speech in the eastern Turkish city of Elazig.

Since then, Turkey involved in a busy diplomatic traffic with the United States and Russia, two other key players in Syria, to be sure it won’t face any interruptions on its path to eradicate the YPG from Afrin. But for Turkey, their support has not been the key determinant to start the operation, only would have been effective on its scope. 

First, Turkish Chief of General Staff Hulusi Akar and Intelligence Chief Hakan Fidan went to Moscow on Wednesday to talk about the details of operation. 

On Saturday, the US Secretary of State Tillerson called Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu, while the US and Russian Chiefs of General Staff were also calling their Turkish counterpart to be apprised over the latest information about Turkey’s plans. 

A week after Erdogan’s speech, Turkey launched “Operation Olive Branch" at 5 pm Saturday, despite the lack of full support from the US and Russia.

The US has provided the YPG strategic military equipment and ammunition since 2014 and led them to control nearly a quarter of Syria in the northeast, while Russia has been trying to not to lose whatever small influence it has on the group. 

That’s how the YPG ended up with an invitation from Russia for the Sochi meeting, and hosting the Russian troops in northwest city of Afrin, where the US has not any presence.

YPG is a Syrian affiliate of the PKK, which is listed as a terrorist organisation by Turkey, the US and the European Union, and has been waging a deadly armed campaign against the Turkish state for more than 30 years.

Complicated reactions: Russia and the Syrian regime

Russia, which has been backing the Syrian regime actively with its air bombardment against the opposition since September 2015, controls the country’s air space. Now Turkey uses Syrian air space for the aerial operation on Afrin. 

Moscow started its co-operation with Ankara in 2016, despite the two countries’ support for the opposing sides, when the US increased its support for the YPG in northeast Syria and angered Turkey. Later same year, both countries became guarantors of four de-escalation zones agreed in Astana talks, which they led along with Iran, in order to reduce fighting between the regime forces and the opposition. 

But occasionally preventing Turkey to fight against the YPG, Russia proved they had never absolutely agreed on Turkey’s stance on the group. 

The first reaction to Erdogan’s statement on using Turkish military in Afrin came from the Russia-backed Syrian regime. The regime said that if Turkey attacked Afrin, it would face reprisals. Following the regime’s threat, Turkish Defence Minister Nurettin Canikli said on Friday that Turkey was aware Syrian regime has a huge support from Russia.

“The regime’s capacity to act on such statements alone are highly limited...This move shouldn’t be seen only as the regime’s ideas,” he said. 

A day before the Turkish military took action, reports said the Russian troops were withdrawing from the city. But it was denied by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in a press conference. Nevertheless, in the first day of the operation, Russian Defense Ministry confirmed reports regarding Russian troops relocated to Tel Rifat for ‘safety reasons’.

The operation started with the Turkish jets targeting the YPG positions in Afrin. That meant Russia and Turkey has agreed on using the Syrian air space for the operation.

“The operation is being conducted under the framework of Turkey’s rights based on international law, UN Security Council’s decisions," said the Turkish army in a statement.

Russia reacted in line with its long-term ally Syria, as a member of the upper house of the Russian parliament told Russian RIA news that Moscow will demand in the United Nations that Turkey halt its military operation. 

Russia’s first official statement came shortly after the operation has begun. Even though they agreed Turkish fighter jets using the air space it controlled, the Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement that Turkey’s operation in Afrin was received with concern in Moscow. 

“We are closely monitoring the development of the situation,” it added.

Somehow a contradicting statement came from Russian Defence ministry hours later. They hinted at they understood Turkey’s concerns and blamed Pentagon for taking “provocative steps” by providing modern arms to the US-backed groups in Syria, referring the YPG. 

Meanwhile, there are still a couple hundreds of Russian troops in YPG-held Afrin in co-ordination with the group.

After the statement, the US Chief of General Staff Dunford and his Russian counterpart Gerasimov held a phone call on Afrin.

The US' call for focus on Daesh, which is not there any more

The United States has been Turkey’s partner in Syria as both countries supported Syrian opposition against the regime of Bashar al Assad at the beginning of the civil war. 

But ties between the two NATO allies began deteriorating in 2014, when the US began arming the YPG, instead of Free Syrian Army (FSA), the main umbrella group for Syrian opposition groups. 

Its growing presence in northern Syria has increased Turkey’s fears of the YPG carving out an autonomous territory near its border.

When the US-led coalition announced this week the formation of a 30,000 strong border force composed of YPG members, Turkey’s President Erdogan said:

“The US created a terror organisation with 30,000 people and has provided them with 4,800 truckloads of arms as of now. Whatever you send them, the army of 30,000 you have created, will not be able to represent you there.”

But they could only deny the name of the group, couldn’t give any different details on their formation, nor the reason of its formation.

While Turkey continued its retaliatory shelling of Afrin, CNN quoted US officials as saying that US troops continued overt patrols near Manbij on January 19, a day before the start of the operation. According to the reports, Turkish-backed FSA troops and US troops exchanged fire in the Manbij region. 

When Operation Olive Branch started on the evening of January 20, the Turkish Foreign Ministry invited Russian, Iranian and the US diplomatic mission chiefs, as well as the diplomatic chiefs of the other three UN Security Council member countries (France, China, the UK) in Ankara to inform them about the Afrin operation. 

Around this time, Turkish Foreign Minister Cavusoglu spoke with his American counterpart Rex Tillerson on the phone, saying that he wanted the US’ support. 

“Those who don't support us should not stand in our way,” he later said in an interview to a Turkish TV channel.

The Pentagon responded hours later, saying it recognised Turkey's security concerns about the PKK. 

"We recognise Turkey's security concerns about the PKK, a US-designated foreign terrorist organisation," Adrian Rankine-Galloway, the Pentagon’s spokesman said in a written statement. 

"The US does not provide any support to PKK," it said.

The US instead called for a focus on defeating Daesh, even though Daesh has been virtually wiped from the region for several months. 

The US continued to contradict itself when it stated that the YPG in Afrin was not part of its fight against Daesh.

“Elements out of SDF areas [in northeast Syria] are not receiving any train-advice assists from us. The groups that we support are exclusively are involved in operations countering Daesh", Pentagon spokesman Major Adrian Rankine-Galloway said.