A look at Middle Corridor’s strategic rise and transformative trajectory

Global trade in a world speckled with the aftereffects of a pandemic, ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine stands disrupted.

As nations seek alternative routes to these shaky grounds; the Middle Corridor has emerged as a viable solution.

The corridor—linking China to Europe via Central Asia, the Caspian Sea, and Türkiye— offers a faster alternative to both the Northern Corridor that passes through Russia and maritime routes via the Indian Ocean.

“[It’s] the most efficient route for trade between Asia and Europe,” said Türkiye’s Foreign Minister, Hakan Fidan during a recent trilateral meeting with Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan in Ankara to discuss the project.

The Middle Corridor closely follows the route of the ancient Silk Road, which traders used to transport Chinese silks, fabrics and porcelain to European markets for hundreds of years.

Known as the Trans-Caspian East-West Corridor or the Middle Corridor for short, it spans China, Central Asia, the Caspian Sea, the South Caucasus, and Türkiye before reaching Europe.

Referred to as the Middle Corridor, it straddles two routes that crisscross above and below it, both of them hobbled by conflicts and geopolitical risks.

“The Middle Corridor offers a strategic alternative within China’s Belt and Road Initiative, enabling more efficient and rapid commerce across Eurasia,” Dr Mehmet Gokhan Ozcubukcu of Baku State University told TRT World.

"By connecting major markets in Europe, the Middle East, and Central Asia, the corridor strengthens economic ties and opens up new avenues for collaboration.”

One of the Middle Corridor’s appeal lies in its potential to cut East Asia–Europe shipping times to just 12 days, making it a faster alternative to the 19-day Northern Corridor and the 22–37-day maritime route.

The corridor stands poised to become a cornerstone of global trade, offering a glimpse into a more interconnected economic future and regional stability, experts say.

Middle Corridor: A vision

Türkiye conceived the Middle Corridor in the late 2000s, but infrastructure development across Central Asia, the Caspian Sea, and the Caucasus took years.

Key milestones included the start of Trans-Kazakhstan railway in 2014 and the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway in 2017, though the first full train journey from Türkiye to China was only completed in 2020.

The train followed the Middle Corridor Trans Caspian International Transit Route via the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars (BTK) railway amid COVID-19 disruptions.

Cargo shipments grew modestly until Russia’s 2022 military campaign in Ukraine, which prompted a surge in demand for an alternative to the Northern Corridor.

Trade along the route jumped from 530,000 tons in 2021 to 3.2 million tons in 2022.

Neil Watson, a British journalist and political scientist, spoke to TRT World of Türkiye’s central role in the corridor, describing it as “a proactive step towards cementing Türkiye as a key transit hub.”

He highlighted the growing recognition of the corridor’s significance in the world at large by citing the excitement it had generated at a conference in London last year.

“We had ambassadors from Türkiye, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Georgia in attendance, alongside UK government representatives and major trade organisations.”

Watson praised President Erdogan's engagement with Turkic nations for making the corridor a reality.

Türkiye’s infrastructure investments reinforce this role. Agreements between Türkiye and regional partners—including a Sister-Port pact between Baku, Aktau, and Samsun—are fostering cooperation, while key projects like the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars (BTK) railway are enhancing connectivity.

"The approach of Erdogan towards all Turkic countries has played an invaluable role. His engagement with Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan has enabled the realisation of the corridor," Watson said.

Geopolitical and economic advantages

“The Middle Corridor is 3,000 kilometres shorter than the Northern route through Russia, making it a more compelling choice for China amid rising geopolitical tensions,” Watson said.

While Beijing historically favoured the Northern route due to its ties with Moscow, shifting realities have brought on a reassessment. “China now recognises that over-reliance on Russia is unsustainable,” he added.

Ozcubukcu pointed to the corridor’s logistical efficiency. “Compared to maritime routes, it reduces transportation times by a third, creating a significant cost advantage for trade between Europe and Asia,” he said.

Beyond trade, the Middle Corridor is expected to unlock major economic opportunities for landlocked Central Asian nations. With annual China-Europe trade worth $600 billion, an efficient corridor could enable these countries to benefit from logistics hubs and free trade zones.

Road ahead

Despite its promise and potential, the Middle Corridor faces hurdles.

Infrastructure remains a challenge. Trilateral cooperation between Türkiye, Azerbaijan, and Uzbekistan will be crucial, experts say.

President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev of Kazakhstan emphasised Kazakhstan’s strategic advantage in cargo transit and called for accelerating the development of the Trans-Kazakhstan Railway Corridor as a vital part of the Middle Corridor’s Trans-Caspian route.

Despite the commitment, geopolitical risks persist.

The resolution of the Karabakh conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia has bolstered regional stability, yet tensions linger. “Ongoing conflicts in the region must be addressed and managed carefully to ensure the corridor's long-term viability,” Watson said with a hint of caution.

Cost concerns also loom. “Initially, the Middle Corridor was more expensive than the Northern route, but costs are converging as efficiency improves,” Watson said. Speed remains its key advantage.

Sustainability is a key consideration. “The Middle Corridor can evolve into a global value chain hub, integrating local processing centres, renewable energy infrastructure, and advanced logistics,” Ozcubukcu suggested.

Ozcubukcu termed developing infrastructure in Karabakh and East Zangezur a “priority”.

“Clearing landmines, rebuilding these areas, and supporting Azerbaijani returnees will be vital for the Turkic world’s long-term security and stability,” he said.

“Significant investment is required to modernise rail networks, ports, and digital logistics systems,” Ozcubukcu said.

Watson pointed to broader geopolitical benefits.

“The corridor fosters regional cooperation and creates a win-win scenario for all participants,” he said. “Even Armenia, despite not directly benefiting, acknowledged its importance.”

Watson highlighted the corridor’s role in diversifying supply chains. “With Russian routes constrained and maritime trade under threat, alternative pathways are essential,” he said.

Recent crises, such as Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, have brought forth the need for alternatives. “For many countries, any route benefiting Russia is now off the table due to sanctions. The Middle Corridor provides a critical alternative,” Watson said.

Türkiye has taken steps to enhance security. “Border controls, cargo screening technology, and intelligence-sharing mechanisms have been strengthened,” Ozcubukcu said.

Both experts agreed that China’s involvement in the corridor is a game-changer and a crucial turning point.

“The Middle Corridor aligns with China's Belt and Road Initiative, albeit it wasn't something China initially endorsed wholeheartedly. But the shifting geopolitical landscape has made it essential,” Watson said.

Ozcubukcu added that the corridor's development could pave the way for deeper economic cooperation between Türkiye and China.

“The increasing relations will encourage China to invest in Türkiye, transforming it into an attractive hub for trade," he said.