Can Türkiye’s trade ties with the US improve as Trump is back in office?

Turkish experts and officials have expressed cautious optimism over the election of Donald Trump as the new US president-elect, and his economic policies that can have a direct impact on Türkiye.

The two NATO allies have had a fraught relationship in recent years as they navigate regional security issues, including cross-border terrorism, exacerbating Ankara’s security concerns.

Yet, trade for two countries has been a stabilising force. The governments in both countries have underscored the importance of deepening commerce, hoping it can pave the way for a more cooperative chapter.

“Trump provides greater visibility and is more transparent about the US's intentions regarding trade with Türkiye and the broader Middle East. This allows Türkiye to better assess and pursue opportunities for cooperation and trade,” says a senior Turkish official, requesting that his name isn’t quoted.

Over the past five years, bilateral trade between the two countries has nearly doubled to $35 billion, Türkiye’s Trade Minister, Omer Bolat conveyed in the Türkiye Export Mobilization Program earlier this week.

While Trump, who won the November 5 election, favours a protectionist trade region and imposed tariffs on imports from China, some of his decisions have inadvertently benefited Türkiye.

“Türkiye and the United States had set a target of reaching $100 billion in trade volume five years ago,” Bolat said, adding: “We anticipate more balanced and fair-trade policies under the new administration.”

Bolat expressed optimism about reducing trade obstacles, particularly in sectors such as steel and textiles, which face significant barriers.

“During Trump’s first term, relations were turbulent,” Bolat said. He underscored the need for deeper engagement to tackle trade imbalances, dismantle barriers, and enhance political dialogue under the re-elected Trump administration.

Expanding into the US market

Mustafa Gultepe, Chairman of the Türkiye Exporters Assembly (TIM), emphasised the strategic importance of the US for Turkish exporters.

“Despite geographical distance, the United States remains one of Türkiye’s top trade partners. In 2023, we exported approximately $15 billion worth of goods to the US, contributing to a bilateral trade volume of $31 billion, with imports totalling around $16 billion,” Gultepe said.

“In the first ten months of 2024, exports to the US increased by 9.2 percent, reaching $13.4 billion,” Gultepe noted. Yet, Türkiye’s share of overall US imports—valued at over $2 trillion—remains a mere 0.75 percent.

“Our goal is to raise this to at least 2 percent,” he said, pointing to the Trump administration’s prior target of $100 billion in the trade as a signal of untapped potential.

Gultepe acknowledged that Trump’s anticipated protectionist policies, though primarily aimed at China, could create new hurdles for Turkish exporters. “We remain committed to expanding our presence in the US market despite these potential challenges.”

Addressing the imbalance

“Over the past two decades, Turkish-American relations have been strained by various crises,” said Dr Helin Sarı Ertem, an associate professor of international relations at Istanbul Medeniyet University.

Turkish-American relations, often strained by geopolitical disputes—ranging from the status of PKK/YPG terrorists to US policies in the Eastern Mediterranean—have overshadowed economic ties.

“While trade is an important aspect of the relationship, it has become somewhat secondary compared to pressing national security issues, such as the differences over PYD/YPG/PKK, FETO that have significantly impacted bilateral ties.”

Ertem noted the pragmatic underpinnings of the relationship. “Both nations balance domestic rhetoric with a need for dialogue on diplomacy and other strategic interests,” she said.

Opportunities and challenges

From the Turkish perspective, this optimism is tempered by the challenges posed by US sanctions on Moscow, which has put considerable strain on Turkish companies and banks that had business in Russia.

“We expect these pressures to ease or be lifted entirely,” says the Turkish official, emphasising that enhanced communication at the leadership levels could pave the way for meaningful progress.

Ertem observed that Trump’s business-minded approach to international relations had mixed implications for Türkiye. From a broader perspective, Trump’s decision to abandon the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) was a mixed blessing for Türkiye.

Ertem noted that TTIP, had it been enacted, could have further disadvantaged Türkiye, which would have been excluded from the international trade pact.

Nonetheless, she cautioned that bilateral trade negotiations under Trump would hinge on intricate bargaining across economic and geopolitical domains.

“While TTIP is no longer a concern, the US preference for negotiating trade agreements with individual EU countries will likely not result in any substantial advantage for Türkiye,” she said.

Despite global economic headwinds, Türkiye has shown resilience in diversifying its trade partnerships.

Gultepe pointed to a robust rise in exports to the European Union, the Middle East, and the Balkans, even amid weak regional growth.

“Our ability to sustain momentum in the US market highlights Türkiye’s adaptability and expanding global footprint,”Gultepe concluded.