Five key reasons that contributed to Erdogan's presidential win

The May 28 presidential race provided a great political moment for Turkish President and AK Party leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who once again finished first in the first-ever presidential run-off.

Erdogan has not lost an election since 1994, when he was elected as the mayor of Istanbul metropolitan municipality. Today with his second-round victory of the presidential election he further cemented his political legacy.

There are multiple reasons why Erdogan won against the six-party alliance’s presidential candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the leader of the leftist Republican People’s Party (CHP), but here’s some of the significant ones that helped him take a decisive lead in both rounds of the elections.

Experience and cohesive leadership

Since Türkiye’s transition to a multi-party system in 1950, no Turkish leader has won more elections than Erdogan, a political reality, which shows Erdogan’s political acumen and experience has made a huge difference against his political rivals.

While left-leaning Kilicdaroglu led a loosely-knit and ideologically diverse opposition alliance called the Table of Six, he was seen as a weak presidential choice against a stalwart like Erdogan from the get go.

Unlike the opposition, Erdogan formed an ideologically coherent political alliance around religious conservatism and Turkish nationalism, the two close ideological political camps, bringing together the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), the Buyuk Birlik Party (BBP), and Yeniden Refah Party (YRP), the parties with similar stances.

Prior to the second round, in another good political manoeuvring, Erdogan allied with Sinan Ogan, the nationalist presidential candidate, who claimed more than five percent of the vote in the first round, cementing his conservative centre-right alliance.

On the other hand, in a contradictory move, Kilicdaroglu suddenly reached an agreement with ultra-right leader Umit Ozdag to garner his xenophobic Zafer Party’s votes to surpass Erdogan’s lead.

Analysts thought that Kilicdaroglu’s move to the ultra-right might have alienated both liberal conservatives and Kurdish votes despite the fact that HDP, which has links to the PKK terrorist organisation, continued to support him. The HDP receives much of its support from predominantly Kurdish-populated southeastern and eastern regions.

Domestic stability

Both parliamentary and presidential elections have given the incumbent president and his alliance a clear political mandate, showing that Turkish people continue to trust Erdogan’s policies.

During the election campaign, Erdogan has pledged the continuation of political stability based on his anti-terrorism measures as well as his empowerment of civilian politics against the country’s history of military interference.

On the other hand, Kilicdaroglu’s fragile political alliance, backed by the PKK-linked HDP, raised serious doubts in Türkiye’s largely conservative-nationalist electorate, making the leftist leader look like a weak politician who is not prepared to fight against terror groups.

Foreign Policy

Erdogan’s long tenure has increased Türkiye’s political bid to become a global power as the US has continued to lose its international influence and soft power across many areas from the Middle East to Central Asia.

Erdogan has skillfully pursued a middle ground in many conflicts from Libya to Ukraine, protecting Turkish interests across the chaotic Middle East and increasing Ankara’s political stakes in Turkic-dominated Central Asia.

In the Ukraine conflict, Türkiye has also acted as a mediator, brokering a landmark grain deal between Kiev and Moscow mainly thanks to Erdogan’s good friendship with Russian leader Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy

Even during the time between the first and second rounds of the presidential election, Erdogan was able to persuade both Ukrainian and Russian leaderships to extend the would-be-expired grain deal, showing his statesman credentials and proving once again his powerful diplomatic influence in the international arena.

Earthquake construction plan

On February 6, Türkiye’s southern region was hammered by the two powerful earthquakes, leading to the deaths of more than 50,000 people and leaving many provinces in a state of large destruction.

But Erdogan was able to mobilise the entire Turkish state mechanism to aid and rehabilitate earthquake survivors to a great extent. It is not likely that any other Turkish politician could have achieved the same results, like launching a large construction plan, which includes 650,000 housing units across quake-hit areas.

Erdogan’s constant presence across earthquake areas also empowered a growing sense that the Turkish president can help the victims more than any other politician.

Both the first round of the presidential race and the parliamentary election results on May 14 have demonstrated that Erdogan’s construction projects and his interaction with earthquake survivors have borne fruit as the incumbent president and his alliance clearly did well across quake-hit areas.

Energy security

Under Erdogan’s leadership, Türkiye has also been able to discover untapped energy sources in the eastern Mediterranean and the Black Sea, developing strong partnerships with oil and gas-rich countries from Russia to Gulf states to diversify its energy imports.

With the new offshore gas discoveries in the eastern Mediterranean, Türkiye recognised that self-sustainability could be possible for Ankara and its island partner, the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus.

As a result, Türkiye launched its research and development programme in the region, competing with regional states like Greece and Israel, showing the Turkish public that its state can both advocate and drill for its gas rights across the eastern Mediterranean. The region’s gas reserves amount to 3.45 trillion cubic metres and 1.7 billion barrels of oil, according to experts.

In the Black Sea, Türkiye has also increased its drilling efforts to a great extent, discovering nearly 600 billion cubic metres in its Sakarya field in areas ranging from Tuna-1 to Amasra-1 and Caycuma-1 wells since 2020.

"When we reach full capacity, we will be able to meet about 30 percent of our country's yearly need from these reserves," Erdogan said, adding that it took less than three years for Türkiye to deliver the discovered gas to its citizens.

"We will extract 10 million cubic meters of gas per day from the Sakarya field in the first place and 40 million cubic meters per day in the future through the new gas wells that we will drill," he underlined.