How significant is the liberation of Manbij?

The liberation of Manbij marks a significant milestone in the Syrian National Army’s (SNA) campaign against the PKK/YPG, with Türkiye’s backing delivering a decisive blow to the terror group west of the Euphrates River.

Liberated after a concerted operation, the northern Syrian town’s capture dismantled a major stronghold of the group, which had held the area since 2016.

The liberation effort, dubbed Operation Dawn of Freedom, underscores the region’s importance.

Abdurrahman Mustafa, an opposition Syrian leader, called the recapture of Manbij a “new step in re-facilitating Syria’s sovereignty.”

For Türkiye, the operation is not just a territorial gain; it eliminates what Ali Burak Daricili, a security and intelligence expert at Bursa Technological University, called a “serious terror threat” against its borders.

Pointing out that the west of the Euphrates River has been completely cleared of PKK/YPG elements, Daricili said it has provided psychological support to Türkiye and SNA.

“Manbij had been the centre of PKK's terrorist attacks carried out over the past three years using paramotors to cross into Türkiye,” Daricili said.

A tightening circle

On November 27, with the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, the PKK/YPG seized control of key eastern settlements abandoned by regime forces.

However, tribal forces from Deir ez-Zor, in cooperation with opposition groups that overthrew the regime, pushed the terror group back, reclaiming Deir ez-Zor’s provincial capital and districts like Al-Bukamal and Al-Mayadin along the Iraq-Syria border.

Concurrently, the Syrian National Army (SNA), under Operation Dawn of Freedom, liberated Manbij from PKK/YPG occupation.

According to Daricili, this victory paves the way for further SNA and Turkish operations east of the Euphrates.

“The circle is tightening,” he notes, as recent victories in Deir ez-Zor and other areas have already begun reversing PKK/YPG gains in eastern Syria.

Daricili argues that the region, with its Sunni Arab majority, is beginning to “return to its natural boundaries.”

He predicts the PKK/YPG-controlled areas rich in oil resources will likely fall to opposition forces, which could use the revenue to rebuild war-torn infrastructure.

“This is because a country with a completely collapsed infrastructure will need the income from those oil fields for reconstruction,” Daricili said.

He also asserts a conflict is highly likely if YPG/PKK doesn’t withdraw. “I don’t think the US will assist this time. The PKK/YPG’s dream in Syria is coming to an end.”

Importance of Manbij

The US had promised Türkiye that PKK/YPG militants would leave the district after it was cleared of the terrorist group Daesh, but this promise was not fulfilled.

Russia’s assurances during the 2019 Peace Spring Operation similarly failed to dislodge them.

Manbij region held central importance in the PKK/YPG's plan to establish a terror corridor stretching from the Syrian-Iraqi border to the Mediterranean.

However, Türkiye disrupted these ambitions through its 2016 Operation Euphrates Shield, severing critical connections like Afrin and Tel Rifaat to Manbij.

Complicated dynamic with Israel

As the PKK/YPG faces increasing setbacks, reports suggest the group has sought assistance from Israel, according to The Jerusalem Post.

While the details remain unclear, Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar expressed concern over the SNA’s recent successes.

Daricili speculates that any deeper Israeli engagement with the PKK/YPG would provoke strong responses from Türkiye.

“Türkiye will intervene against PKK/YPG elements making such attempts,” he warns but doubts if the Israeli-YPG nexus will work on the ground.