How Türkiye is balancing its ties with Russia and the West

When Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan called for a new chapter in relations with the European Union – as a quid pro quo for greenlighting Sweden’s NATO accession – Ankara’s allies in the West were quick to hail the momentous decision.

Soon after, the stalled discussions over Türkiye’s membership to the EU and the Customs Union were back on the table.

Following his meeting with President Erdogan on the sidelines of the recent NATO summit in Lithuania last week, European Council president Charles Michel said they “explored opportunities ahead to bring EU-Türkiye cooperation back to the forefront and re-energise our relations”.

He also said that the Council has asked the high representative, Josep Borell, and the European Commission to submit a report “with a view to proceed in a strategic and forward-looking manner” on Türkiye proposed EU entry.

Western leaders, including US President Joe Biden, NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg, and Swedish PM Ulf Kristersson, were also quick to announce their support to Ankara’s EU membership bid that started on July 31, 1959.

Is Turkish foreign policy changing course?

Following Erdogan’s approval to send Sweden’s NATO accession bill to the Turkish Parliament and the ensuing rapprochement with the EU and the US, analysts have been quick to suggest that Türkiye has undergone a “political axis shift”, moving away from Russia and aligning itself more closely with “the West”.

But there is more to Ankara’s foreign policy than meets the eye.

​​“These analyses mean they do not know our President (Erdogan) at all. For us, all positions are equal. It is a reductionist approach to say that Türkiye is approaching the West or East,” says AK Party spokesperson Omer Celik, highlighting that such comments fall short of grasping the complexities of Turkish foreign policy.

While it is true that Sweden’s accession to NATO is not a desirable outcome for Moscow, statements from the Kremlin indicate that Russia understands Türkiye's decisions.

“Türkiye has obligations toward NATO, and we are aware of that,” said Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov.

Erdogan is among a handful of global leaders who have maintained good relations with both Russia and Ukraine, refusing to take sides in the conflict that has divided the world into two blocks.

Peskov underlined the common sentiment of both Ankara and Moscow that while the two sides have differences, they also share many common interests that compel them to work together.

It’s a fact the EU and Türkiye share many joint strategic interests, such as the “Black Sea, the Mena Region, the Balkans, security in the Eastern Mediterranean, hydrocarbon projects, the fight against irregular migration, creating the middle corridor with Asia, European energy security, and counter-terror measures,” says academic Talha Kose from the İbn Haldun University.

These interests cannot be overlooked when examining Türkiye’s relationship with Russia.

US side of the coin

Following his meeting with the US President, Erdogan said Türkiye was starting a new process with Washington.

Türkiye has been facing pressure from its Western allies, particularly the US, to impose sanctions against Russia over the conflict in Ukraine. However, Ankara has maintained a neutral policy on Moscow.

Türkiye has chosen to follow its own approach, allowing it to assume a unique role as a mediator between Ukraine and Russia.

This approach has not come at the expense of Ankara’s ties with Washington and NATO, as demonstrated by the outcome of the Vilnius summit.

Both leaders were smiling as Erdogan wished Biden luck in the upcoming US elections.

Biden responded by saying he was looking forward to working with President Erdogan in the upcoming five years.

He thanked Erdogan for this leadership and for carrying out the diplomatic process of Sweden's NATO accession.

The rapprochement between the West and Türkiye demonstrates that Türkiye has effectively cemented its position within the alliance, making a strong impression on all Western countries and reinforcing its perspective throughout the coalition.

However, it is important to note that Ankara's actions do not come at the expense of Moscow or the West, as Türkiye continued to navigate its foreign policy based on its own interests.

And Erdogan remains uniquely positioned as the only NATO leader capable of bringing Russians and Ukrainians to the negotiating table.