Israel’s war to give breathing space to anti-Türkiye terrorists — experts

On October 9, 2019, Turkish troops rolled into northern Syria as part of Operation Peace Spring, which was aimed at flushing out PKK/YPG terrorists from areas close to Türkiye’s border.

While the operation was successful in containing the terrorists, experts now fear that Israel’s widening war in the region can give a fresh impetus to non-state actors to regroup and threaten Turkish borders.

“The PKK's rise in northern Iraq after the first and second Gulf Wars is a striking example in this regard,” Oytun Orhan, the Coordinator of Levant Studies at ORSAM (Center for Middle Eastern Studies), tells TRT World.

The terrorist group gained a foothold in Iraqi cities after a security vacuum was created following the US-led invasion.

Operation Peace Spring allowed Türkiye to secure its borders by establishing a safe zone along its southeastern frontier with Syria.

The military action was aimed at eliminating PKK/YPG, which Türkiye considers an extension of the PKK. This group has carried out a decades-long terror campaign within the Turkish borders, killing tens of thousands of civilians and soldiers.

Turkish officials say the operation has reduced cross-border terror threats and helped clear areas that were previously under terrorist control.

The Israeli fallout

Orhan fears that Israeli war can easily spill over into Syria as the situation escalates in Gaza and Lebanon. That can weaken the regime of Bashar al Assad further and open up space for PKK/YPG members to expand their activities, he says.

As of 2024, Türkiye maintains a military presence in northern Iraq and Syria, where Israel’s regional rival Iran has financially and militarily backed Shia militant groups.

The Israeli military offensive on Gaza, which began in October last year, has reverberated throughout the region.

With growing tensions between Israel and Iran along with Tehran-affiliated gr, there is concern that war and chaos could spread quickly, affecting neighbouring countries, including Syria.

Experts warn that terrorist groups like PKK/YPG and Daesh may attempt to exploit the chaos to rebuild their networks, especially as international attention shifts toward Israel’s war in Gaza and Lebanon, as well as the conflict with the Houthis.

“In such a situation, we can say that ISIS (Daesh) and the PKK/YPG will not be rivals. On the contrary, both will fight against states to gain more region and will choose to take advantage of the (security) gaps that will be created. So the ISIS and YPG can reach an unspoken agreement on not to attack each other,” Orhan says.

“The strengthening of both terrorist organisations would pose a threat to Türkiye and Iraq in the first place as neighbouring countries.”

A new challenge

Türkiye has long sought to secure its borders against such threats. However, the rapidly changing geopolitical situation presents new challenges that may include an influx of foreign fighters.

“As we have seen in the example of the Syrian civil war, in the event of a regional war, there may be an influx of radical fighters both from the region and from elsewhere,” Orhan says.

“Terrorist organisations such as ISIS (Daesh) and PKK, which are active in Syria and Iraq, may want to infiltrate into Türkiye and carry out terrorist acts as they did during the Syrian civil war.”

To deter terrorist organisations from curving out a territory, the Turkish forces might expand their fight against them in Syria and Iraq, he says.

As the region braces for more instability, Türkiye’s security operations in northern Syria remain crucial for its own security and that of its neighbouring countries.

However, maintaining stability in an increasingly volatile regional environment will likely require continued vigilance and strategic partnerships with international players, experts say.

“In parallel with military measures in Northern Iraq and Syria, Türkiye will make efforts to stop Israel through political and diplomatic means and to prevent the war from spreading to Lebanon, Syria and Iraq,” Orhan says.

Cooperation with regional states

On the domestic front, Turkish authorities have covered major ground to ensure contain terror groups.

Merve Seren Yesiltas, an associate professor at Ankara Yildirim Beyazit University, says that Türkiye’s biggest advantage in its fight against terrorism lies in having successfully neutralised the PKK in rural areas within its borders. “Türkiye has significantly enhanced its operational capacity, both militarily and in terms of intelligence," Yesiltas tells TRT World.

This increase in capacity has allowed Türkiye to pursue what Yesiltas calls "intelligence diplomacy" with regional powers such as Iran, Iraq, and Syria.

"The most important thing here is to win without fighting," she says, underscoring the importance of diplomatic victories alongside military gains.

Yesiltas also emphasised that Türkiye must now shift its operational strength into a more comprehensive foreign policy tool, particularly in the Middle East.

By establishing new cooperation initiatives with neighbouring countries, Ankara can persuade them to see the PKK/YPG terror as a common threat.

Türkiye’s recent diplomatic outreach to the Middle East is aligned with this strategy.

The Development Road project, which connects Iraq and Türkiye to the Gulf via 1,200 kilometres of railway lines and highways, is part of Ankara’s initiative to deepen regional economic cooperation between different countries, including Kuwait and Saudi Arabia.

As Ankara seeks to improve relations with countries such as Iran, Iraq, and even Syria, it positions itself as a key player in regional security.

Turkish President Erdogan’s administration has taken steps to mend ties and open dialogue with these countries, focusing on shared security concerns like terrorism and border protection.

In this context, Yesiltas argues that regional cooperation is crucial for long-term stability.

Türkiye’s ability to leverage its enhanced military and intelligence capabilities into productive partnerships could prove instrumental in shaping a more secure Middle East.

"Cooperation with countries in the region will make it much easier to minimise terrorist threats," she says.