The Forgotten Ally: Why EU needs Türkiye more than ever

On October 30, the European Commission released its latest country report on Türkiye, offering a critical assessment of its long-stalled EU accession process.

As in previous years, the report highlights political and economic divergences, but this time it places particular emphasis on Türkiye’s increasingly independent foreign policy.

The Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs' rejection of the EU's assessments in the 2024 Türkiye report by calling it "unfair" highlights the significant differences between Ankara and the bloc.

Despite the familiar litany of criticisms and counterclaims, the strategic rationale for rapprochement has never been more compelling.

"The relationship between the EU and candidate countries is asymmetrical to the advantage of the EU. As the EU decides who can join under which conditions, what the EU says in its reports is of particular importance and critical,” Dr Erhan Icener, a professor of Political Science and International Relations at Istanbul Sabahattin Zaim University, tells TRT World.

For close observers of Türkiye-EU relations, this acrimony is unsurprising. Accession talks have been effectively frozen, stalled by disputes over the Copenhagen political criteria and unresolved tensions around the Cyprus island.

Still, the relationship persists. Both sides recognise that their mutual interdependence—whether in trade, migration, or security—necessitates dialogue. The question is not whether dialogue is necessary but how to rebuild it in a way that reflects contemporary realities.

Economic imperatives

Since the establishment of the Customs Union in 1996, economic interdependence has been a cornerstone of Türkiye-EU relations. The agreement bolstered Türkiye’s industrial growth and integration into the global economy.

By opening access to one of the largest markets in the world, the Customs Union transformed Türkiye into a competitive player in global trade, fostering innovation and export-driven growth.

Trade between the two entities reached €198.3 billion ($209 billion) in 2022, underscoring the enduring importance of this partnership. Türkiye remains one of the European Union's (EU) largest trading partners.

Despite its successes, the agreement's limited scope—excluding key sectors like agriculture, services, and digital trade—has reduced its relevance in a rapidly evolving global economic landscape, making its modernisation a strategic imperative for both sides.

“Modernising the Customs Union is not just an economic necessity but a strategic imperative for Türkiye to maintain and enhance its trade advantage with the EU”, says Haluk Nuray, the IKV (Economic Development Foundation) Brussels Representative, to TRT World.

Expanding the Customs Union to include digital and green economies could unlock new opportunities for both sides. Yet, such a step requires overcoming political hurdles, including restrictions imposed by the EU in 2019 following tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean.

Despite political disputes, trade remains a neutral ground that can pave the way for broader reconciliation, experts say.

Since the EU is looking for re-engagement with Türkiye, Icener highlights that “trade relations dictate that the EU and Türkiye should continue to cooperate,” emphasising the potential of economic partnerships as a foundation for rekindling political dialogue.

Cyprus conundrum

The Cyprus dispute remains the thorniest issue in Türkiye-EU relations. The EU’s 2004 decision to admit the Greek-administered Southern Cyprus into the union, despite the failure of the Annan Plan for reunification, entrenched divisions rather than resolving them.

"The Europeanisation of the Cyprus issue has not borne fruit. Instead, it has complicated Türkiye-EU relations and contributed to an enduring stalemate," Icener said.

From Türkiye’s perspective, the EU’s alignment with Greece and the Greek Cypriot administration reflects a lack of neutrality. This has led to growing mistrust, not only among Turkish policymakers but also within the Turkish public.

Ankara insists that any resolution must respect the inherent rights and equality of the Turkish Cypriot community, a stance echoed by the Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

For its part, the EU views the Cyprus issue as emblematic of Türkiye's broader challenges in aligning with European norms.

However, critics argue that the EU's one-sided stance has exacerbated the stalemate, undermining its credibility as an impartial mediator. A renewed focus on UN-led negotiations in Cyprus, coupled with EU support for reconciliation efforts, could break the impasse.

Divergent foreign policies

Türkiye’s strategic autonomy in foreign policy has been a source of contention with the EU. Ankara’s ties with Russia, its stance on NATO expansion, and its position during the ongoing Israeli genocide in Gaza reflect a divergence from EU priorities.

"Türkiye's policy of strategic autonomy is proudly 'at odds' with EU foreign policy, particularly in light of the Gaza crisis," Icener notes.

Ankara has framed its independent foreign policy as a response to regional realities, emphasising its role as a stabilising force in the Middle East and Eastern Mediterranean.

Yet, the EU has criticised Türkiye’s increasing engagement with Russia, particularly in the energy sector, as undermining European solidarity.

In the context of Gaza, Türkiye has taken a vocal stance, criticising what it perceives as EU inaction in the face of Israel’s human rights violations.

Navigating Green Deal

The EU’s Green Deal adds another layer of complexity to Türkiye-EU relations. While Türkiye has made strides in aligning its environmental policies with EU standards, significant challenges remain.

High-carbon industries, which constitute a substantial portion of Türkiye’s exports to the EU, face the risk of increased tariffs under the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM).

"Failing to adapt will increase export costs and weaken Türkiye’s economic position”, Nuray said. Türkiye must accelerate its transition to a low-carbon economy to mitigate these risks.

Türkiye has taken initiatives such as establishing an emissions trading system, implementing strategies to cut carbon emissions, and promoting renewable energy projects, which could strengthen its position as a key EU trading partner.

Despite the challenges, there is a growing recognition on both sides that rekindling relations is essential.

"The lack of a clear membership perspective undermines pro-European efforts in Türkiye," Icener remarked.

For the EU, addressing Türkiye’s legitimate grievances—particularly on Cyprus and sovereignty—could rebuild trust.

Modernising the Customs Union offers a pragmatic starting point, providing a foundation for economic cooperation that could extend into political dialogue. Aligning with the EU’s Green Deal, meanwhile, would demonstrate Türkiye’s commitment to shared goals, reinforcing its role as a vital partner.

The stakes are high: in an era of shifting alliances and global uncertainty, a renewed partnership could serve as a stabilising force in the region and beyond.

Icener captures the essence of the challenge: "A shared strategic vision, grounded in mutual respect and pragmatic collaboration, is essential for revitalising Türkiye-EU relations."