The revival of Qatar-Türkiye gas pipeline offers hope amid challenges

A few days after the Bashar al Assad regime’s fall last month, Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar indicated that a long-stalled gas pipeline project between Türkiye and Qatar could be revived.

His comment, which came in response to a journalist's question after a cabinet meeting, has rekindled interest in the long-forgotten project that has gained new importance as Europe pivots away from Russian energy supplies.

By linking Qatar’s gas reserves to Europe, the project promises to reshape energy security, geopolitical dynamics, and economic stability across the Middle East and beyond.

“By providing an alternative route for Qatari gas, the pipeline could reduce dependence on maritime chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb,” Dr Justin Dargin, a senior MENA energy and climate expert, stated.

“Türkiye’s role as a critical bridge between the Middle East, the Caspian, and Europe would expand, strengthening its geopolitical influence,” Dargin added.

Connecting Syrian infrastructure to Türkiye’s robust gas network offers a cost-effective alternative to EastMed Pipeline.

Associate Professor Necmettin Acar from Mardin Artuklu University emphasised the pipeline’s role in connecting Qatar's massive gas reserves with Europe, the world's largest natural gas consumption centre. "

“If realised, the pipeline would diminish Europe’s reliance on Russian gas and costly LNG imports from the US and Qatar, fostering greater energy security," Acar stated.

Starting January 1, the flow of Russian gas to Europe was suspended after Ukraine refused to renew a transit agreement with Moscow. The pipeline carrying gas from Russia to Europe passes via Ukraine.

The land-based pipeline route would not only enhance supply security for Türkiye and Europe but also shield these regions from maritime disruptions, including threats posed by Houthi attacks in the Red Sea.

The project’s feasibility is complicated by Middle Eastern volatility, requiring stability in Syria and cooperation among rival powers like Iran and Gulf states.

Despite these challenges, an oversupply in LNG markets by the decade’s end may prompt Qatar to reconsider pipelines for long-term supply agreements, provided demand and pricing justify the investment.

Obstacles to realisation

A stable Syria could pave the way for reviving the long-stalled pipeline linking Qatar’s vast natural gas reserves to Türkiye through Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Syria.

As Dargin noted: “The fragmented security environment in Syria makes stability a non-negotiable prerequisite for the pipeline’s success.”

Acar also underscored the importance of regional unity and coherence: “Without a unified and secure route through Syria and Iraq, the project is unlikely to materialise.”

Iran, viewing the pipeline as a direct competitor, could obstruct its development. Iran, which wields considerable influence over Iraq’s political factions and provides a significant portion of Iraq’s gas and electricity needs, is likely to view the Qatar-Türkiye pipeline as a direct challenge.

According to Dargin, "Iran may take measures to obstruct or undermine the project, given that it poses a threat to its regional energy and geopolitical strategy."

Russia, too, is expected to oppose the pipeline. By potentially eroding its share in the European gas market, the pipeline threatens Moscow’s leverage over European energy security, a position that has been central to its geopolitical strategy.

Economic and environmental implications

The pipeline’s economic feasibility depends on shifting market dynamics. Its economic viability depends on market dynamics and pricing structures.

Historically, Qatar has favoured LNG over pipeline exports due to the flexibility and profitability associated with liquefied gas.

However, as Dargin points out, "Forecasts of a potential LNG oversupply by the late 2020s could make pipeline exports more attractive as Qatar seeks to hedge against market volatility."

Acar concurred: “The pipeline could disrupt US dominance in Europe’s LNG market, offering cheaper and more stable energy options. The pipeline offers Europe greater diversity and affordability in energy supply.”

For Qatar, the pipeline represents an opportunity to secure long-term export contracts and reduce reliance on the spot LNG market, which has become increasingly volatile.

"By diversifying its export mechanisms, Qatar could mitigate the risks of fluctuating global LNG prices and shipping uncertainties," Dargin explained.

Europe, a key beneficiary of the pipeline, has made considerable progress in reducing its reliance on Russian gas through decarbonisation policies, investments in renewable energy, and partnerships with alternative LNG suppliers, including Qatar and the United States.

While Europe’s energy transition emphasises renewable sources, natural gas remains critical as a bridge fuel during this shift.

Decarbonisation and long-term viability

The global shift toward renewable energy poses questions about the long-term relevance of the Qatar-Türkiye pipeline. As natural gas faces increasing scrutiny, particularly in Europe, due to net-zero emission commitments, the pipeline must align with sustainability goals to remain viable.

“Blending hydrogen into gas supplies or employing carbon capture technologies will be essential to avoid becoming obsolete in a carbon-conscious world,” Dargin asserts.

"Without aligning with decarbonisation efforts, the pipeline risks becoming a stranded asset in a world increasingly dominated by clean energy investments," he cautions.

Moreover, Europe’s aggressive investment in green hydrogen and energy storage could diminish demand for natural gas over the coming decades, challenging the economic rationale for large-scale pipeline infrastructure projects, which requires hundreds of millions of dollars in investments.

Regional ‘energy’ unification

The Qatar-Türkiye pipeline’s revival could catalyse greater regional collaboration, offering opportunities for economic integration and shared energy strategies.

However, as Dargin stated, "The project also risks intensifying competition between major players such as Saudi Arabia and Iran."

Yet, as Acar cautioned, “The success of this pipeline hinges on overcoming deep-rooted geopolitical rivalries, including those between Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the Gulf states.”

Saudi Arabia’s position will also be critical. While Riyadh has traditionally prioritised oil exports over natural gas, the pipeline could enhance Gulf cooperation by fostering collaboration among Türkiye, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia.

Such alignment could reduce the region’s reliance on Iranian and Russian energy supplies.

Dargin emphasised that the pipeline’s success will depend on navigating these geopolitical tensions and fostering consensus among stakeholders. "Building trust and alignment among regional players is essential for the pipeline to move forward," he asserted.

“This pipeline is not just about energy—it’s a balancing act between economic ambitions, geopolitical realities, and the global push for sustainability.”