Türkiye aims for average GDP growth of 4.5% in 2024-2026

The Turkish government is aiming for a 4.5 percent gross domestic product growth rate on average in 2024-2026, according to the government's medium-term economic programme.

Unveiling the programme at the Presidential Complex in Ankara on Wednesday, Vice President Cevdet Yilmaz said the Turkish economy is projected to grow 4 percent next year, 4.5 percent in 2025, and 5 percent in 2026.

At the programme's launch, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said "Türkiye, for the first time, foresees joining high-income countries with an economic size exceeding $1.3 trillion by the end of the programme (end-2026), reaching $14,855 per capita income."

In 2022, Türkiye's economy grew 5.5 percent year-on-year, according to revised Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) data.

Erdogan also pledged to eliminate the structural factors that push up inflation through implementing monetary, fiscal, and income policies with all their means.

Türkiye's year-end inflation rate is expected to come in at 65 percent this year, 33 percent next year, 15.2 percent in 2025, and 8.5 percent in 2026, Yilmaz said.

According to the latest data from the country's statistical authority TurkStat, Türkiye's annual inflation reached 58.94 percent in August.

Unemployment rate set to drop

Türkiye's exports are foreseen to hit $255 billion in 2023 and rise to $302.2 billion in 2026, according to Vice President Yilmaz.

The country is forecast to generate tourism income of $55.6 billion this year and $71.3 billion in 2026, he also said.

Türkiye's current account deficit-to-GDP ratio is expected to fall to 4 percent in 2023 from 5.3 percent in 2022, and to 2.3 percent in 2026, the vice president added.

Some 909,000 jobs will be generated a year during the programme, and the unemployment rate is set to drop to single digits by end-2026, President Erdogan said.

The programme projects that next year’s unemployment rate will be 10.3 percent followed by 9.9 percent in 2025 and 9.3 percent in 2026.

While facilitating access to finance with a target-oriented and selective approach, the government will avoid practices that may lead to inflationary pressure, Erdogan said.

The new programme will boost domestic production and accelerate technological transformation in industry, support services trade, and focus on efforts to update the Customs Union, the president explained.

"We aim to attract direct investment flows to our country by strengthening bureaucratic and legal predictability," Erdogan said.

Under the 2053 net zero emission target, the government will work to achieve green transformation in all areas of the economy, Erdogan said, adding that the programme aims to adjust the national emissions trading system to comply with the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism.